The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Partially because of Joe Mauer’s ridiculously good season last year, Victor Martinez’s output has been somewhat overlooked, but not since Pudge Rodriguez and Mike Piazza were in their primes has a backstop coming off a .303-23-88-108 campaign not been unanimously ranked as the No. 1 fantasy C the following year. His down 2008, which was ruined by injuries, is now a distant memory, and while he’s unlikely to maintain the pace he set after coming to Boston (.336/.405./507), it’s also worth noting he did that while somewhat struggling at Fenway Park (.808 OPS). That figures to change in 2010, and VMart should hit in the middle of a strong Red Sox lineup. With Adrian Beltre signed to play third, Kevin Youkilis is locked in at first base, so with David Ortiz the DH, Martinez won’t have as many options to play when not catching, so the situation isn’t ideal. Still, it would hardly shock if he put up numbers comparable to Mauer this season, although don’t expect him to come cheap (24.49 ADP). With catchers quickly becoming sketchy after the big three, Martinez would be a good pick if he falls to you in the third round.

I’m not sure if “Shutter Island” looks intriguing or flat-out terrible (maybe both?), but either way, I’ll be seeing it this weekend. If it’s as over-the-top as Scorsese’s last movie, “The Departed,” one thing’s for sure – I’ll be entertained.

Ubaldo Jimenez is no secret and a major topic of discussion in fantasy circles, but he’s the first Rockies’ starter I truly believe in (incidentally, the current staff actually has two). Last year’s 3.51 BB/9 mark was not good, to put it mildly, but it was a significant improvement over the previous season (4.67), and it also (marginally) got better after the All-Star break. At 26, Jimenez is obviously still learning how to pitch, and often control is the last skill grasped. Coors Field remains the best hitter’s park in baseball, but the gap has narrowed significantly, and pitching in a division with the Giants and Padres certainly helps. Jimenez’s average fastball velocity (96.1 mph) last year was easily the highest in baseball, and a full half mph ahead of the next fastest (Justin Verlander). Moreover, according to pitch value, Jimenez’s slider was the fifth-most effective in the National League. Most impressively, only Felix Hernandez had both a higher GB% and better K/9 rate, as Jimenez’s ability to produce grounders while also missing bats is unparalleled in the NL, and that’s the best type of combination a pitcher can have. After an awful April last season (7.58 ERA, 2.11 WHIP) he posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.15 WHIP over the rest of the season. And he’s only getting better. Don’t be shocked if Jimenez threatens to win the Cy Young in 2010.

Sticking with Colorado, Ian Stewart could prove to be one of the biggest steals in fantasy drafts this year, especially in leagues where he’ll remain second base eligible (he played 21 games there in 2009). The former top-10 pick hit 25 homers over just 425 at-bats last year, and he’ll finally be given a full-time job in 2010, with no Garrett Atkins to worry about. Stewart strikes out way too much, and his .228 BA was pretty ugly last season, but that’s obviously bound to improve, and probably by a good 30-40 points – his BABIP was .275 last year, which is well below his career mark of .310 (and that’s after last year’s career-low mark). Stewart gets to hit in Coors Field, and if he plays up to his capabilities, a move up in the order isn’t out of the question (he batted predominantly sixth and seventh last season). He hit just .205/.287/.434 with RISP in 2009, compared to .244/.340/.507 with the bases empty, so that figures to be corrected this year, resulting in more RBI. Stewart is a batting average risk, but he’s also a clear-cut top-10 fantasy option at second base (it doesn’t hurt he’s from the LBC, either). I’d certainly prefer him to Dan Uggla.

I’m beginning to question all those stories about Pablo Sandoval getting into the best shape of his life this offseason.

I kind of like targeting Brad Lidge. I mean, it seems just about everyone is down on him coming off a season in which he had a 7.21 ERA and 1.81 WHIP. He was due to regress after 2008, when he was perfect in save opportunities, but few expected that type of collapse (he was just the second player ever to record at least 30 saves with an ERA higher than 7.00. And he was 0-8 for good measure too). But remember, Lidge bounced back after he posted a 5.28 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2006 (admittedly, his peripherals were MUCH better then compared to last year), and maybe his terrible 2009 campaign really can be blamed on injuries (and while he may start this year on the DL, the fact he got offseason surgery on his knee should hopefully correct the problem. Plus, it will likely make him even cheaper at draft tables). Lidge’s fastball velocity has dropped in four straight seasons, and it was a pitch that was destroyed by opponents last year, but he continues to miss bats (9.36 K/9), and his .369 BABIP and 14.8% HR/F rate are bound to come down. I’m not saying Lidge will be dominant in 2010, but he should be healthier, should come relatively cheaply, and manager Jerry Manuel is a strong believer. For a closer with good job security (Ryan Madson does not like pitching in the ninth inning) on a team that has won the NL pennant each of the past two seasons, Lidge could be a bargain.

Come on, this can’t be real. Suddenly, the Snuggie looks legitimate.

The curious case of Matt Cain. Over his five years in the league, here are his xFIP vs. ERA comparisons: 5.21 v. 2.33, 4.88 v. 4.15, 4.66 v. 3.65, 4.67 v. 3.76, 4.26 v. 2.89. It’s safe to say his peripherals haven’t exactly matched the results. For the most part, this has to do with his ability (luck?) to keep flyballs from leaving the yard. To wit, here are his HR/F percentages over his career: 7.8, 9.0, 6.7, 8.2, 10.1. I’m certainly of the belief there are outliers with everything, so maybe this is a trend, and batters simply don’t make good contact against Cain. A huge increase in his homers allowed isn’t necessarily inevitable moving forward. Despite possessing velocity that isn’t overwhelming, his fastball has always been one of the better pitches in all of baseball, despite his second most used pitch (curveball) being below average. In fact, only Clayton Kershaw and Randy Wolf had a more effective heater than Cain last season. Still, there are plenty of red flags here, even if his HR/F remains the same and not even questioning whether his career BABIP (.278) stays constant as well. Cain’s control improved last season, but his 3.02 BB/9 mark still isn’t any good, especially considering his modest 7.07 K/9 mark was a career-low. He somehow limited opponents to just a .161 BAA with RISP, which was the second-lowest in baseball (J.A. Happ was No. 1). And with RISP and two outs, Cain gave up a miniscule .101 BAA. Good luck repeating that. Cain is generally considered an unlucky pitcher, as he averaged just 7.5 wins over 2007 and 2008 thanks to poor run support despite a 3.71 ERA over that span, but if you look closer (and past the win stat), few hurlers have been so fortunate. His 81.6 LOB% was also second-highest in MLB last season. Maybe the low HR/F rate and BABIP can safely be viewed as trends now, and it’s possible he’s learned how to pitch better in pressure situations, but I’ll let someone else find out that answer in 2010. I’m not saying drafting Cain is as risky as say, talking trash to “Epic Beard Man” on public transit, but I’d much rather draft Jonathan Sanchez way later.