The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

What do we make of Aaron Hill, Adam Lind and Ben Zobrist? They were probably the biggest contributors to winning fantasy titles last year when you consider how cheaply they cost. Not one screams fluke, but it’s also worth noting that each were considered good, not elite prospects. Of course, that doesn’t mean they can’t become stars at the major league level, but all three enter 2010 as somewhat risky picks, because they came relatively out of nowhere last season yet posted some of the best numbers in baseball.

Hill led all second basemen last season in both home runs (36) and RBI (108) while also scoring 103 runs and batting .286. He started hitting more flyballs than ever before, but the big difference in his production is what happened to those balls once they were in the air, as a whopping 14.6% of his flyballs went for homers. Over his previous four seasons, those numbers looked like this: 2.6%, 3.6%, 8.6%, 2.4%. So while last year’s spike is almost certain to come down in 2010, it’s also clear he had been quite unlucky earlier in his career, and remember, his terrible 2008 can be partially explained by injury. So while it’s hardly going out on a limb to say he’s unlikely to ever match last year’s 36 homers, 25 bombs are within reach, and since he hits atop the order, 80 RBI and 90-100 runs scored are also perfectly reasonable expectations. Still, he’s not a star when it comes to his value to the Blue Jays, as even last year his OBP was just .330, and his UZR was -2.3 (although it was better over the previous two seasons, so it’s safe to call him about a league average defensive second baseman). Entering his age 28 season, there’s still room for growth, but fantasy owners should be wary of paying for last year’s power numbers, especially once pitchers start handling him differently, as this spray chart is about as drastic as it gets.

Hill’s teammate, Lind, meanwhile is similar. He started getting far more lift on the ball last season, as his G/F ratio jumped from 1.08 in 2008 to 0.77 in 2009. His 19.8 HR/FB % was a personal-high, but his career mark (15.7%) suggests a total collapse may not be in store. A former third round pick, Lind has always been an RBI machine throughout the minors, and he’s just now entering his prime, and it’s hard to overlook last season’s output: .305-35-93-114 in fewer than 600 at-bats.

Not only was Zobrist the most valuable of this trio in fantasy leagues last year because he was probably a waiver wire add and did all that damage (.297-27-91-91-17) in just 500 at-bats, but he also held by far the most real life value as well. Thanks to fantastic defense at multiple positions, Zobrist’s WAR (8.6) was the highest among all position players in 2010 (Joe Mauer would have come in first, but they have yet to devise a method to properly give credit to defense at catcher). Zobrist’s outburst seemingly came out of nowhere (although he did slug .505 in 198 ABs with the Rays the year before), and it’s worth noting his OPS dropped from 1.012 before the All-Star break to .886 afterward. Of course, .886 is still fantastic, and he’ll finally be given an every day job at one position in 2010, which can’t hurt. Zobrist’s 2009 season may feel like more of a fluke than the other two, but it was also the best of the three, and because he steals bags unlike the others, he should be the first one off the board in fantasy leagues this year. That said, it will be interesting to see how these three fare, and the wise method (and most obvious) is to expect some real regression from all three.

Cringe-worthy stuff by Oprah. Poor Drew Brees.

Interesting discussion here for true baseball nerds. Is SIERA the next big thing? It sure looks possible to me.

Saw “Crazy Heart” this weekend, and while I’m no fan of country music, and this movie was basically the same story as last year’s “The Wrestler,” I liked it. And can easily see why Jeff Bridges is the favorite to win Best Actor at this year’s Oscars.

Cliff Lee’s fantasy value no doubt took a hit when he was traded back to the American League, as he was flat-out dominant for the Phillies. In fact, his K rate went from 6.34 K/9 in Cleveland to 8.36 K/9 in Philadelphia. While some remain skeptics since he was unable to match his 2008 performance that came out of nowhere, Lee has proven to be a very good pitcher, and even before the trade, he was pitching well for the Indians (3.24 K:BB ratio). The lack of gaudy strikeout totals leaves him outside the top-10 fantasy starters, but he can still be a top-15 one, as he’s found himself in a pretty good situation in Seattle. Although he’s improved in the area, Lee is still predominantly a flyball pitcher, and the Mariners just so happen to have the best outfield defense baseball has seen in years. In fact, last year’s UZR (62.0) was the second-best since the stat was first recorded in 2002. The addition of Milton Bradley and the subtraction of Adrian Beltre hurts, but replacement Chone Figgins has transformed himself into a fantastic defender at third base, and a full season of Jack Wilson at SS combined with the addition of Casey Kotchman at first should more than counter, leaving Seattle as baseball’s best team with the glove once again. Safeco Field is also really tough on right-handed hitters. Lee will be a huge beneficiary, as will his fantasy owners.

Unless drastic changes are made, put a fork in the NBA Slam Dunk contest, it’s done.

There’s already a huge contender for my favorite album of 2010, and it’s “Transference” by Spoon. Really good stuff.

I don’t love the Olympics, but I do try to get into them. And the finish to this race was pretty insane.

Aside from the obvious fact there are so many more than any other position, I have the hardest time ranking outfielders. The hierarchy simply isn’t as clear-cut as others. Maybe there’s a pretty standard top-seven (but even then, I wonder if most agree even there?), but it gets muddled soon thereafter, which in turn probably means it’s a good position to act agnostic and let others decide the differing values among so many players who could be considered as roughly equals. One guy I seem to value higher than others (at least from ADP, the couple of mocks I’ve been in and rankings I’ve looked at), is Nelson Cruz, which is funny because this is a guy who got so much “sleeper” love last season, I completely missed the boat and owned him in zero leagues not believing the hype. It’s safe to say he surpassed it, as Cruz hit 33 homers with 20 steals in just 462 at-bats. And people are taking Jason Bay over him with a straight face? What am I missing here? He also battled through an ankle injury throughout the second half, which in no small part contributed to a paltry .239/.295/.409 line in September. Cruz can no longer be viewed as a Quad-A player, and at age 29, he’s still in his prime. In an effort to break up some lefties, it sounds like Cruz may open the season batting seventh, but if he hits like he’s fully capable of, he’ll be in the middle of the order soon enough, and the advantage of playing in Arlington shouldn’t be underestimated. Cruz sure looks like a top-10 outfielder to me.