By Dalton Del Don
I’ve already let my feelings be known about Joey Votto deserving the No. 6 ranking as far as first basemen are concerned, and obviously Albert Pujols is No. 1, but where it really gets tricky is coming up with the 2-5 order, which pretty much unanimously consists of Ryan Howard, Prince Fielder, Miguel Cabrera and Mark Teixeira. Howard probably has the most upside of the group, since he’s probably the favorite to lead baseball in both homers and RBI (and this is someone who had a SLUGGING PERCENTAGE of 1.138 on flyballs to the opposite field last season), but what if 26-year-old Cabrera finally reaches his power potential (and him stopping drinking can’t hurt), because he’s also likely to hit around .320 as well. Prince Fielder, meanwhile, is coming off a season in which he hit 46 bombs with 141 RBI. Personally, I’m remaining agnostic about deciphering this group, which means if I don’t get an early pick this year, I’d prefer a late one rather than in the middle.
Even though he never actually accomplishes what he set out to do in the first place, I really liked Dan Le Batard’s account of hanging out with Bryant McKinnie during Super Bowl week.
Another tough decision is on the opposite side of the infield: David Wright vs. Evan Longoria. Wright is obviously coming off a disappointing season, hitting just 10 home runs, and while pretty much everyone fully expects that number to return to his career levels this season (or at least into the mid 20s), his big spike in K rate is worth noting. But this is a very good hitter who is likely to have a distinct advantage in batting average and also possesses the ability to swipe 30 bags. Longoria, on the other hand, just posted a 33-100-113 line as a 23-year-old. Something like 40 homers is hardly out of the question, and while he doesn’t have Wright’s SB potential, did you realize he’s a perfect 16-for-16 in stolen base attempts during his career? Still, he’s not a big runner, and Wright’s concussion last year affected his suppressed numbers, and we could be talking about a 30-40 point advantage in BA here. Who ya got?
Interesting stat: the Colts had more first downs gained by the pass compared to the rush this season in NFL history.
One final debate I find interesting is Chase Utley vs. Ian Kinsler. Returning from offseason hip surgery, Utley produced a .282-31-23-112-93 line last season, and it could have been even bigger if not for a .204/.304/.343 September when he was likely hampered by a foot injury. Of course, Utley is seemingly always dealing with some sort of health problem, and while it’s admirable he’s able to fight through the injuries and stay on the field, his numbers typically suffer as a result. Of course, put differently, if he were able to actually stay 100 percent throughout an entire season, he could easily challenge to be the No. 1overall fantasy player. He’s a remarkable 46-for-49 (including 23-for-23 last year) on the base paths over the last two seasons, but he’s more likely to fall in the 15-SB range in 2010 than match last year’s total. I love Utley the baseball player, as he handles lefties quite well and plays fantastic defense at a premium position, making him one of the most valuable players in real life. But he’s now on the wrong side of 30, and his career-high in homers (33) and RBI (105) don’t exactly jump off the page. Kinsler, on the other hand, is just 27 years old, plays in the better hitter’s park and just posted a 30-30 season last year despite missing nearly 20 games. His .245 BABIP suggests you can ignore last season’s low average (.253) and can fully expect a bounce back there in 2010, especially since his plate discipline continues to improve. Then again, Kinsler has made a trip to the DL in each of his four seasons in the league, and last year’s 566 at-bats shattered his previous high, so it’s not like we are talking about a durable player here either. Close call.
I’m not even sure what’s going on here, but this is my favorite meteorologist since Phil Connors.
After Stephen Drew posted a .927 OPS after the All-Star break in 2008, everyone was hyping him like crazy (including myself) entering last year. Well, after he came through with a disappointing .261-12-65 line, he was one of the bigger 2009 busts. Of course, this means he’s someone to target in 2010. Drew struggles against lefties and uses Chase Field to his full advantage, but remember the former top-15 pick is still just 26 years old, and it’s worth noting only 5.9% of his flyballs last year went over the fence. Drew should hit toward the top of a lineup that figures to be improved, and he still has the upside to be a top-five fantasy shortstop.
I know that’s not what Steve Phillips MEANT, but come on man.
Jon Lester had a 6.07 ERA over his first 10 starts last season, despite 62 strikeouts over 59.1 innings. From that point forward, he posted a 2.31 ERA despite pitching in Fenway Park and in the AL East. That was also accompanied by a 163:43 K:BB ratio over 144 innings. Lester’s fastball velocity took a big jump last season, and his cutter (one of the most best pitches in baseball) and curveball are actually even more effective. He has a strong groundball rate (47.7%), and his 9.96 K/9 IP ratio ranked third-best in baseball in 2010. His xFIP (3.33) was sixth-best, ahead of both Zack Greinke and Justin Verlander. With Boston improving its defense quite a bit during the offseason, don’t be surprised if Lester wins the Cy Young in 2010, and he should be considered a top-five fantasy starter. If anyone wants a Lester versus CC Sabathia bet, please let me know.
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