The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

I hope Joey Votto ends up on a bunch of my teams this year. His overall numbers were suppressed last season since he took some time off dealing with depression, and while his BA is probably due for a bit of a dip, Votto possesses serious power potential. He more than held his own against lefties (.329/.400/.531), and over his final 104 at-bats last season, he posted a 20:22 K:BB ratio. Votto is just 26 years old with barely 1,000 career ABs, so the best is yet to come, and a true explosion could occur in 2010. He’ll bat in the middle of the order in a good park for hitters, and he’s also capable of adding 8-10 steals as well. Despite all the turmoil with his personal issues and it being just his second full season in the bigs, Votto’s .981 OPS last year was the fourth-highest in all of baseball. There’s a big-five at first base who will be ranked ahead of him (Pujols, Howard, Fielder, Teixeira, Cabrera), but there’s no way I’m putting any other over Votto, so don’t make the mistake of taking Justin Morneau, Kendry Morales or Adrian Gonzalez ahead of him.

On the flip side as far as age is concerned, I like Chipper Jones as a later round CI target. Despite staying relatively healthy last season, he hit just .264/.388/.430 and finished with the fewest homers (18) and RBI (71) during his 15-year career. Jones remains an injury risk, but he can be plenty valuable if he bounces back in 130 games (in leagues where acceptable replacements are available. It’s trickier in NL-only formats), and I highly doubt he’s truly done at age 38. Jones is one season removed from posting a 1.044 OPS, and his plate discipline remained intact last year. He’s never been this cheap, and this isn’t football – boring veterans often produce the most profit in baseball.

It’s no secret Cole Hamels’ peripherals last year suggest he pitched far better than his 4.32 ERA and 1.29 WHIP indicate, but that doesn’t mean there’s still not a pretty good opportunity to “buy-low” here. Hamels’ K:BB ratio was actually better last season (3.91) than his stellar 2008 campaign (3.70), when he posted a 3.08 ERA and 1.08 WHIP. Maybe the huge workload (he increased his previous high by 70 innings in 2008) is one explanation, but last season’s decline was far more likely simply due to bad luck. His G/F ratio was actually a career-best 1.09, and predictably, his BABIP (.325) and strand rate (.693) were career-worsts. Despite having far less success with the pitch, his fastball velocity remained completely intact, and his xFIP (3.75) was the 16th best in baseball. Hamels will always give up too many homers, so he’s a bigger help in WHIP than ERA, and he’s not a truly dominant strikeout pitcher, but he should be treated as a top-12 fantasy starter for 2010.

Jose Reyes is one of the tougher guys to rank this year, as his immense upside remains, but there’s also no doubt plenty of risk associated with the shortstop coming off hamstring surgery. He played in an average of 158.3 games per season from 2005-2008, but it’s also worth noting all the leg issues he dealt with during his first two years in the league. Reyes entered last year atop my overall rankings, but most of his fantasy value is tied to his speed, so it’s imperative he enters 2010 fully healthy. Maybe Citi Field saps some of his power, but I wouldn’t let that affect his ranking too much, and it’s easy to forget Reyes is still just 26 years old. His current 23.39 ADP seems about right (although there’s no way I’m taking Mark Reynolds ahead of him), and I’d personally be willing to use a second round pick on him.

Chris Young makes for a pretty good late round flier (the pitcher, although the hitter isn’t a bad last year’s bum target either). Sure, he’s an injury risk having never thrown 180 innings in a season during his career, but he’s expected to enter 2010 fully healthy after undergoing surgery last August, which he described as, “Everything’s great, best-case scenario. They went in, identified the problem and fixed it. It wasn’t a major surgery. They didn’t have to repair a tear in the rotator cuff or a completely torn labrum.” Young has consistently been the least efficient pitcher in baseball when healthy, and it’s not like he’s some dominant force, either, posting a 2.25:1 K:BB ratio over his career, but Petco Park makes him a viable fantasy option when he’s not hurt. Some will argue it’s still too small of a sample, but to me, it looks like his career .265 BABIP is here to stay, in no small part because of his extremely flyball tendencies. Before suffering two injury-ravaged seasons over the last two years (and in 2008, a line drive to the face off the bat of Albert Pujols was hardly his fault), remember, Young posted a 3.46 ERA and 1.13 WHIP in 2006 and a 3.12 ERA and 1.10 WHIP in 2007. Mat Latos will be more hyped in 2010, but don’t be surprised when Young finishes as the more valuable fantasy property.

What do we make of B.J. Upton? The 2008 postseason outburst in power may ultimately prove to be a fluke, but last year’s drought could also be attributed to coming off shoulder surgery. And how do you explain his massive struggles against southpaws (.190/.302/.270. – one homer over 163 at-bats) when he’s typically fared better against left-handers throughout his career? He’s still just 25 years old, and even when Upton is a huge disappointment, 11 homers and 42 steals aren’t exactly not useful in fantasy leagues. Personally, I’m still treating him as a top-10 outfielder, with the upside of a top-10 overall commodity.

With a 12-4 record (over just 23 starts), a 2.93 ERA and a 1.23 WHIP, J.A. Happ had a highly successful rookie season. However, I want no part of him in 2010, as his BAA with the bases empty (.267) versus with RISP (.158) was the biggest discrepancy in MLB last year (h/t Buster Olney). His 2.13 K:BB ratio wasn’t impressive, and in fact, his xFIP (4.58) was downright bad. Of course, there’s always the possibility Happ improves as a pitcher during his second year in the league, relying less on luck in the process, but with a modest 6.45 K/9 and a 3.04 BB/9 ratio last season, it would take quite a leap in performance for that to happen. Stay far, far away.

A few quick random notes:

Sure, it’s an honor to just be nominated, but fuck that shit, I wanted to win damnit! (You might have to scroll to the next page)

My 2010 year-end list will FINALLY be posted later this week. I’ve been dealing with bronchitis for the past 10 days, which was a real setback. I promise I’ll make it up to you with a quality list. Be on the lookout later this week.

I do want to bring back my “Top-5” random rankings at the end of my baseball posts, but I’m also going to start incorporating YouTube clips of songs I like – some will be recent, others will be old school ones that may not necessarily be popular. And with that, I give you a classic Alice In Chains song:


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14 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover Avatar
    Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover

    Keeper question — who is likely to have better 2010 value, Garrett Jones or Matt LaPorta?

    I’m leaning Jones because:
    — Keepers are due first week of March, when LaPorta probably won’t even be back on the field yet
    — Youngsters with hip injuries make me nervous
    — Jones can slug, take a walk and even steal a few bases to boot — and should bat third or fourth, albeit on the Pirates

  2. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    I’ll believe it when I see it–I was actually going to make a joke that with the early-run excellence of ‘Archer’ (“just the tip!”), I was already working on my 2010 list before your ’09 debuted. [g]

  3. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    nice alice in chains clip. If you watch drug rehab on tv, their ex guitar player is on there, a total mess.

    I agree and would love to get chipper for cheap if he is available, but I would not want to rely on his as my starter.

    Stevie: take jones. he is much more of a sure contributor.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Steve – For 2010 alone, I agree Jones is probably the safer bet. But realize he’s also due for some pretty major regression, and LaPorta definitely offers more long-term upside.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – I promise the list is coming! I haven’t checked out “Archer,” but I take it I should?

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald – I actually caught some reruns of that show the other day, and you are right – that guy is a mess. AIC were great.

  7. Brett Greenfield Avatar

    DDD,

    Welcome back to the diamond.. nice analysis and I agree that Votto could be a second round pick next year and play like one this year.

    AIC? Love it.. Another sleeper would be “Got Me Wrong” off of their other LP..

  8. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    God, I would–it’s the best new comedy I’ve seen since, well, ‘IASIP’. Already in the top-10 on the season pass thingy on my DVR. Good animation, great voice cast (larded up as it is with ‘Arrested Development’ talent), very bawdy, extremely cleverly written. We’ll see if it’s got legs, but it’s sure out of the gate in fine form.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Brett – Glad to be back in baseball mode. Love it. Oh, and I like “Got Me Wrong” for sure too.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – Good to know. I appreciate it. Will start DVRing it now.

  11. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Brett – Check this out:

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EXhtm3CW9-o

    Layne is anything but lucid. One of the sadder (and craziest) stories. Wish he were still alive.

  12. Brett Greenfield Avatar

    Great stuff.. could listen to that unplugged album all day

  13. Biggles Avatar

    Keeper questions for you DDD… if you had to pick one for this year, who would it be… Cano, Markakis, Kershaw

    Other keepers are Lincecum, Greinke, Tulowitzki, and VMart… can only keep 5.

  14. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Biggles – You won’t find a bigger Kershaw fan than me, but I’d keep Cano. And I agree with your other four too.

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