The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Clayton Kershaw is just 21 years old, tossed more than seven innings in just one of his 30 starts last season and had the second-worst BB/9 (4.79) in all of baseball last year, and yet I’m having a hard time not ranking him as a top-10 fantasy starter for 2010 (his current ADP rates him as the 23rd SP). His .274 BABIP helps explain how he kept his ERA low (2.79) despite so many walks, and while that number is likely to raise some this season, the fact remains Kershaw is simply tough to hit (he held opponents to a league-low .588 OPS last year, as hitters slugged just .282 against the southpaw). His fastball is already one of the best pitches in the game, and his curveball has the potential to be not far behind, and playing in the NL West is also advantageous. After the All-Star break, Kershaw posted a 10.85 K/9 mark (Tim Lincecum led the league with a 10.42 K/9 over the full season), and his control also improved. A Cy Young isn’t far away.

I’ve never been a big Adam LaRoche guy, probably letting his typical first half slumps wrongly get in the way of valuing someone who usually finishes with solid overall numbers. After ending last season with a .325/.401/.557 line with 12 homers and 40 RBI over 57 games in Atlanta, he’s not going to be exactly dirt cheap in fantasy leagues, but the move to hitter-friendly Chase Field makes him someone to target nevertheless. According to Park Factors, Chase Field has ranked as a top-six hitter’s park in each of the past five seasons, and signed to a one-year deal, LaRoche will be plenty motivated to put up big numbers after free agency didn’t quite treat him as expected this offseason.

Adrian Beltre is never going to repeat his 2004 season, but before last year’s injury-ruined campaign, he averaged 25 homers, 83 runs, 88 RBI and 11 steals over the previous three seasons while playing in cavernous Safeco Field. He’s typically been highly durable throughout his career, so now is the time to buy coming off such a disastrous 2009, although he’s obviously not going to be under the radar with the move to Boston. His home/road splits were fairly massive over 2007 (.745 OPS vs. .858) and 2008 (.703 vs. 862), so a move to Fenway Park could be huge. Add in the fact Beltre will now be hitting in the best lineup of his career, and he should enter this season as a borderline top-10 third baseman.

With a 2.52 ERA, 1.16 WHIP and 10.09 K/9, David Aardsma had a strong 2009 and rightfully enters this season entrenched as Seattle’s closer. However, I’d let someone else take him and target Brandon League much later instead. Aardsma has posted 6.47 and 4.29 BB/9 marks over the last two years, so he’s walking on thin ice, especially since he’s such an extreme flyball pitcher (0.37 G/F last season). Don’t expect last year’s .271 BABIP to repeat, so he’ll need to significantly improve his control to keep that ninth-inning job all season. League, meanwhile, also flashes impressive strikeout ability (9.16 K/9) only with far better command (2.53 BB/9) and a ridiculously impressive groundball rate (3.47, 2.37 G/F over past two years). League’s recently discovered changeup was highly effective last year, making his fastball that much tougher to hit. Seattle’s fantastic outfield defense may serve to benefit Aardsma more, but I doubt the intelligent Jack Zduriencik traded the upside of Brandon Morrow for League if he didn’t envision him as a future shutdown closer.

I can’t think of a better value pick right now than David Ortiz, whose current ADP sits at 195.06. Sure, he hit .238 last season and finished with a career-low .794 OPS, but let’s not overrate a two-month sample (no matter how awful it was). Over the final four months, Ortiz hit 27 homers with 81 RBI and a .913 OPS, and at age 34, there’s little reason to think he’s “done.”

I really like what the Diamondbacks have done this offseason, signing both Adam LaRoche and Kelly Johnson on the cheap, while also remaining patient with Conor Jackson and Brandon Webb. I didn’t like Arizona trading away Max Scherzer, but it’s also possible the team will ultimately be right (he’ll get hurt or forced to move to the bullpen), and for 2010, Edwin Jackson and Ian Kennedy probably improve the rotation. Chris Young, Stephen Drew, Kelly Johnson and CoJack are all due for huge regressions (in the good way) in 2010, and while Mark Reynolds will probably decline some, Justin Upton could truly explode. There isn’t an obvious weakness in the lineup, and if Brandon Webb returns to form, despite finishing in last place in 2009, the DBacks could win the NL West this season.

If and when Octavio Dotel signs with the Pirates, he’ll become an excellent fantasy target who shouldn’t be too costly at draft tables. He’s not without injury risk, but Dotel hasn’t been worked overly hard over the past two seasons, when he compiled an 11.6 K/9 while pitching in a far tougher environment (the American League and U.S. Cellular Field). Heath Bell is great, but because of his near certainty of being traded midseason, I’d actually prefer Dotel over him (and that’s not even counting the differences in ADP).

Among starting pitchers, Brett Anderson currently has an ADP of 63, which seems about 40 spots too low. As a rookie, he posted an 86:20 K:BB ratio over 88.0 innings after the All-Star break last season, and his 1.74 G/F ratio also impressed. With a projected starting outfield of Ryan Sweeney, Coco Crisp and Rajai Davis combined with Mark Ellis at second and the addition of Kevin Kouzmanoff at third, the defense should be a major team strength as well. Anderson’s xFIP last season was 3.80, which ranked inside the top-20 among all starters in baseball, ahead of bigger names like CC Sabathia, Johan Santana and Matt Cain, to name a few. Anderson should only get better during his sophomore campaign.