The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

It’s never easy to project next season just after this one ended, especially with a new coaching staff taking over, but you have to think Fred Jackson’s Week 17 performance put a stamp on him being Buffalo’s true workhorse moving forward. Marshawn Lynch’s presence still causes concern, dropping him from first round consideration, but Jackson could be a second round pick in fantasy leagues in 2010…I’d let others make Reggie Wayne a top-five WR selection next season and take Pierre Garcon much later…Over the last five quarters, Curtis Painter has completed 28.6 percent of his passes for a 3.0 YPA mark. He also committed four turnovers without a TD. Of course, his opponents were two of the best secondaries in football, but still, that’s strikingly bad. After resting its starters in the second half of Week 16, what was Indy thinking having Peyton Manning attempt 18 passes last week?

No team has ever won the Super Bowl after finishing the regular season with two straight losses, something both No. 1 seeds have done this year, including the Saints dropping their final three games. To say they are limping into the playoffs would be an understatement…The Panthers would be fools not to enter 2010 with Matt Moore as their starting quarterback. Sure, the sample size has been small, but Moore just ended the season with an 8:0 TD:INT ratio with a 7.8 YPA mark over the final four contests. Three of the four opponents made the playoffs (the other being the Giants), and he didn’t have Steve Smith for one of them either. And if you want to talk sample size, how about Jake Delhomme’s last 12 games, when he’s committed 27 turnovers to just eight touchdowns.

Chris Jennings had one of the best runs of the season Sunday, but when it comes to Cleveland running backs, what more can be said about Jerome Harrison? It’s a joke he was planted on the bench so long. And while there’s no guarantee he could withstand a 350-carry type season, he ended the year by setting an NFL-record with 106 rushing attempts over the final three games – the most ever by a back over a three-game stretch…Over the last five games of the year, Mike Sims-Walker totaled just 12 catches for 129 yards with one touchdown, so he really struggled to finish the season, perhaps keeping his price tag down at 2010 draft tables.

Leave it to Jay Cutler to toss eight touchdowns to just one interception over the last two games, reminding everyone of his still vast potential. Especially if the recent revelation that Matt Forte suffered an MCL sprain in the middle of the year affected his performance more than we realized, he, Cutler and Greg Olsen should all be good targets in fantasy leagues next season…The Lions are 2-30 over the past two years – the worst stretch in NFL history (and yet they don’t even get the No. 1 pick in 2010’s draft).

Good luck trying to handicap Houston’s backfield next year. I’m still a Steve Slaton fan, and he might represent a good buy-low opportunity, but the Texans probably view him strictly as a change-of-pace type used extensively in passing situations, and undrafted Arian Foster impressed in between fumbles. To wit, the Pats entered last week having allowed an NFL-low four rushing scores on the year, yet Foster hit pay dirt twice Sunday (of course, New England’s D-line wasn’t at full strength, but still). Houston’s defense quietly improved over the second half of the year, and if not for some crazy last second losses, this 9-7 team could have easily been 11-5 this year. With continuity in the coaching staff and system, if Matt Schaub, Andre Johnson and Owen Daniels stay healthy in 2010, a playoff appearance should finally result…Interesting decision by Bill Belichick to play Tom Brady but remove him during both two-minute drills last week, the thought being to eliminate risk in obvious passing situations. What a devastating injury to Wes Welker (and how crazy was it that it once again involved Bernard Pollard?), and anyone who thinks Julian Edelman is a reasonable facsimile is way off.

Scary hit taken by Pat White. Weird he was ahead of Tyler Thigpen on the depth chart to begin with though. I’ve never seen a more conservative offense with White in. Chad Henne’s “eye” injury was clearly a euphemism for concussion…If you want to draft Rashard Mendenhall in fantasy leagues next year, it will likely cost a top-eight pick.

The toughest opponent in the NFL might very well be the Vikings when playing in Minnesota. They have a lot of warts and benefitted from a very easy schedule, but with the Saints looking extremely vulnerable, don’t be surprised by a deep run in the playoffs from the Vikes. Sidney Rice is a top-three WR in postseason fantasy leagues…Everyone keeps talking about Brandon Jacobs being soft, but if the guy really suffered a fairly serious knee injury Week 1, can we really fault him for his lackluster season? Of course, he seems to suffer a knee injury every year, so it’s not like I’m targeting him in fantasy leagues in 2010.

I love Antonio Gates and Dallas Clark, but I’d have a real hard time not ranking Vernon Davis as the No. 1 tight end in 2010…Ndamukong Suh looks can’t-miss, but he’s a defensive tackle. How can the Rams not take a quarterback?…San Francisco allowed 6.75 points per game during second halves this season, easily an NFL-low…It would be a big mistake if the 49ers entered 2010 completely content with Alex Smith as their quarterback of the future.

It’s too bad Antonio Bryant has likely talked himself off another team, because if he returned with a fully healthy knee next year, he would be just the weapon Josh Freeman could really grow with…If you examine the Falcons’ schedule and account for injuries, this is a team that will be dangerous in the NFC in 2010.

Dallas hadn’t scored a touchdown on its opening drive of any game over the first 13 contests this season and then did so in each of the final three games to close out the year. Go figure…The more I think about it, the more I’m willing to rank Miles Austin as the No. 3 wide receiver for fantasy purposes in 2010….The Eagles looked nothing short of terrible Sunday, but don’t be surprised if Saturday night’s wild card matchup is much more competitive, with a Philly win a possibility…You’ll hear people talk about how hard it is to beat a team three times in one season, and while that may be true because it’s rather rare, it’s not that hard once the first two games are out of the way. In fact, when teams meet for the third time in a given season, the squad that has won the first two times has a better winning percentage in game three than the one who has dropped the first two contests.

It’s safe to say the Cardinals will be in a lot of trouble when Matt Leinart becomes QB1. Considering Kurt Warner will be 39 years old when next season starts, that prospect may be sooner than any prospective Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin and Beanie Wells fantasy owner would like…The Packers are a weird team. On one hand, they were the most penalized team in the NFL this year and have a bad special teams unit. On the other, they led the league in turnover ratio and had the second-best point differential in football this season. They could easily lose this week to a team that didn’t try while watching GB utilize its playbook last Sunday, but the Packers also wouldn’t surprise if they made the Super Bowl either.

I won’t say the Broncos didn’t miss Brandon Marshall last week, but Jabar Gaffney sure made Eddie Royal look bad with a big performance. Marshall will be tough to rank in fantasy leagues next year, but hopefully his situation will become clearer come August…Tim Castille’s halfback pass was honestly one of the five-worst throws I’ve ever seen in any football game of my life last week, emphasized by the announcer suggesting the cornerback should have “called for a fair catch” on the throw.  I get it – you’re not a quarterback and not used to throwing in an NFL game. I don’t care. If the trick play doesn’t result in someone wide open, just throw the ball 10 rows deep in the stands. This isn’t rocket science…I‘ve been guilty in the past of overrating running backs similar to what Jamaal Charles has done – huge performances (on a bad team) down the stretch (and against weak competition) with little to no history. That said, I have Charles as the No. 6 overall pick in 2010 drafts, and I stand by it. He’s the real deal.

JaMarcus Russell didn’t show up to the Raiders’ season-ending meeting because he wanted to go to Vegas instead? I can’t say I blame him, but he’s now officially one of the five biggest busts in NFL history…Willis McGahee was the most worthless fantasy player to ever score 14 touchdowns in a given season this year…I keep hearing Joe Flacco getting killed in the media, but this is a sophomore QB who has posted a 7.9 YPA and a 7:1 TD:INT ratio over his past four games despite a bad outing in Oakland last week. His season YPA (7.2), TDs (21) and completion percentage (63.1) all rank in the top half of the league; he’s played one game indoors this season while facing an extremely difficult schedule with one of the worst receiving corps in football. Flacco deserves far more credit than he gets.

While I wasn’t impressed with Mike Shanahan the GM (at least not toward the end of his Denver tenure), it’s hard to deny he wasn’t a good coach, so I can’t wait to see what he does with this Washington roster, especially on offense. Good luck in that division…Here’s a Peter King quote from his MMQB column this week: “This is the year (Philip) Rivers joined the elite of NFL quarterbacks.” Look, I still read King and don’t care if he makes me cringe from time-to-time; the guy means well and works hard, but that comment is indefensible. I picked Rivers as the MVP last season. Dude had 34 TD passes (which tied for the NFL-lead, but he had six fewer INTs) with an 8.4 YPA that easily led the league. Call me crazy, but I think he entered the “elite” last season. Not to kill the guy, but later in King’s article, he argues Tim Tebow should be selected high because Joe Montana and Tom Brady lasted far too long during their drafts. Huh?

I love how many in Seattle are shocked by T.J. Houshmandzadeh being a bust during his first year as a Seahawk when he averaged 10.2 and 9.8 yards-per-catch during his last two seasons in Cincinnati. I mean, he’s always had good hands and had to deal with a terrible QB in his final season with the Bengals, but he’s eclipsed 1,000 yards receiving just twice during his eight-year career – never reaching 1,150 yards. He’s an OK possession receiver in a good offense and nothing more…That holding call should NOT have been called. Chris Johnson was screwed.

I’m beginning to think the Bengals didn’t show up to play Sunday night. Now that was embarrassing. That said, don’t be shocked if Cincy wins this week…The Jets have unquestionably the best defense in the NFL this season, and the No. 1 ranked run offense as well (I like YPC better than YPG, but still, their rushing attack is legit either way), but unfortunately, this is a passing league, so they have little chance of advancing past the divisional round of the AFC playoffs (and I’m a big Rex Ryan fan too).