The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Aaron Rodgers now has a 22:5 TD:INT ratio with an 8.3 YPA mark on the season. He’s also completed 65.5 percent of his passes while adding 247 yards and three scores on the ground. He’s taken two sacks or fewer in each of his past two games, and Rodgers’ 104.9 QB rating ranks third in the NFL. With a defense that has allowed just 6.4 YPA and 3.3 YPC, Green Bay is a dangerous team moving forward…To say Kevin Smith left some yards on the field on Thanksgiving would be an understatement, as the turf monster made multiple tackles. He’s in a poor situation with Detroit’s offensive line, and Smith’s activity as a receiver certainly keeps his fantasy value somewhat afloat, but his inability to make defenders miss is glaring. On 18 carries last week, his longest rush went for six yards…What an absolute dominant performance by Charles Woodson. What about seven tackles, a sack, two interceptions, a touchdown, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery with four passes defended? Now that’s a pretty decent IDP game. He also completely shut down (a clearly hobbled) Calvin Johnson.

Bruce Gradkowski is an upgrade over JaMarcus Russell, but that doesn’t mean Oakland still isn’t a great opponent for your fantasy defense. Things could get ugly in Pittsburgh against a desperate Steelers team this week…Where has that been all year, Jason Witten?…Miles Austin is the real deal and should enter next season as a borderline top-10 fantasy wide receiver.

The odds were stacked against the Giants, travelling to play in the thin Denver air on a short week against a Broncos team focused after four straight losses, but that was still a flat performance by New York. The schedule has had plenty to do with their drop off, but Eli Manning’s foot injury has really derailed their season. Moreover, what happened to both their offensive and defensive lines? With mostly the same personnel as last year, the Giants’ poor play in the trenches has been one of the biggest surprises of 2009…What terrific catches made by Brandon Marshall…It’s so easy to overrate the QB position, but Denver is an entirely different team with Kyle Orton under center rather than Chris Simms.

It’s easy to forget now, but the Dolphins actually entered the fourth quarter of last Sunday’s 31-14 loss up 14-7, as Ricky Williams continued to impress (although his passing ability could use some work)…I’m not saying Marshawn Lynch is bad, but it’s always seemed apparent Fred Jackson was the superior running back, despite the difference in pedigrees (Lynch was a top-15 pick, Jackson went undrafted). There’s no guarantee the discrepancy in touches last week means Jackson has become Buffalo’s workhorse, but if it truly is a sign of things to come, he could be a beast from here on out. It shouldn’t be too shocking that the Bills have played much better since utilizing Terrell Owens downfield while also giving its better players more touches; this is why you were so rightfully fired Dick Jauron.

Speaking of superior backup runners, if Julius Jones gets even a handful of carries at Justin Forsett’s expense once he returns from injury it will be a crime against humanity. A back who actually breaks tackles, imagine that…Can someone please wake up Matt Hasselbeck and tell him there are fantasy seasons on the line? Really, 102 passing yards with zero touchdowns against the Rams? Maybe he’s playing more hurt than letting on, but Hasselbeck has been extremely inaccurate of late, and he’s posted a 2:4 TD:INT ratio over his last four games, coming against favorable matchups as well (Det, Ari, Min, Stl). Stay away in fantasy leagues…Steven Jackson is an animal, and was there really ever any doubt he wouldn’t fight through his back spasms? After failing to record a touchdown over the first seven games this year, he’s now scored in four straight.

If DeSean Jackson (concussion) is forced to sit out Week 13, go ahead and play Jason Avant as a flex. He’s impressed of late, is in the right system and faces an Atlanta secondary that has allowed 7.8 YPA and 18 scores through the air this season. Jeremy Maclin could be considered a WR2 or even WR1 this week as well…It’s too bad LeSean McCoy isn’t used at the goal line, but he’s still going to be an extremely valuable fantasy back as long as Brian Westbrook (concussion) is out, which could be the rest of the season. He’s currently an RB1 in PPR formats…Despite modest stats last week, continue to start Rock Cartwright with confidence while Clinton Portis (concussion) is sidelined (yes, it’s officially the year of the concussion). Cartwright should continue to get 15-20 carries while being active in the passing game and at the goal line, and he gets the Raiders in Week 14.

So that’s why people who suffer high-ankle sprains typically sit out 4-6 weeks. It’s clear Michael Turner wasn’t ready to return, and he’ll now pay the consequences. Although in reality, Atlanta’s season may be over regardless, and it’s hard to fault him for trying to tough it out. Pick up Jerious Norwood immediately…Josh Freeman continues to impress, while rookie head coach Raheem Morris does not. He routinely botches time/game management, and his lack of aggressiveness during the second half last week likely cost Tampa Bay the game (as well as Aqib Talib having to leave during the final series with a hamstring injury).

All right Gary Kubiak, Steve Slaton has been punished enough, now get your best running back the football more. You’re going to be fired either way, so do you really want to go down while giving Chris freaking Brown a bunch of carries?…Andre Johnson is a very good wide receiver, but it’s worth noting he has only one touchdown over the past six games…This Texans team is soft, as usual, but the Colts also deserve a ton of credit for their ability to pull off fourth quarter comebacks this season…Pierre Garcon looks like the real deal, with even more explosion than Reggie Wayne. With Anthony Gonzalez (knee) highly unlikely to make much of an impact over the rest of the year and Austin Collie taking a backseat, Garcon could be a big difference maker in fantasy leagues from here on out.

Maybe I’m biased as a Chad Johnson owner, but that performance by Cincy’s offense was pathetic last week. Sure, I can understand the offensive line has issues, and the game was mostly in hand, but the Bengals’ utter lack of confidence in their passing attack (and against a bad Cleveland secondary, no less) was apparent. Since Week 7, Carson Palmer has thrown two touchdown passes. This team doesn’t have much upside come playoff time if the passing game doesn’t make huge strides…It will be interesting to see whether Larry Johnson and Bernard Scott cut much into the carries of a possibly less than 100 percent Cedric Benson moving forward…When facing the Lions this year, Brady Quinn has gotten 9.2 YPA with a 4:0 TD:INT ratio. When not facing Detroit, he’s gotten 4.3 YPA with a 1:5 TD:INT ratio.

I’m not saying Jake Delhomme’s finger isn’t truly broken, but he finished last Sunday’s game, and it’s an awfully convenient way to bench a quarterback that was just given a $42.5 million contract extension during the offseason. Either way, his benching was clearly warranted, although it’s true he’s dealing with probably the worst secondary group of receivers in the league (which becomes especially difficult when a guy like Darrelle Revis can shut down Steve Smith by himself). I have no idea how Matt Moore will perform, but it’s worth finding out at this point…After scoring one touchdown over 16 games in 2007, Thomas Jones has reached paydirt 21 times over his last 23 games.

To say the Chiefs had some problems snapping the ball last week would be an understatement. Seriously, how hard is it to snap out of shotgun?…LaDainian Tomlinson’s two scores were nice, and he could continue to rack up the TDs on that offense, but he was still able to manage just 3.0 YPC at home against a bad Kansas City defense in what was essentially a blowout. What’s worse is his disappearance in the passing game this season; after recording 52 receptions for 426 receiving yards last year, he has just 45 yards total through the air in 2009…Jamaal Charles needs to protect the football, but he’s really impressed since given a chance as the Chiefs’ lead back (only a few other backs in the NFL could have pulled off his 49-yard catch last Sunday). With three upcoming home games, including tilts versus the Bills and Browns in Weeks 14 and 15, it wouldn’t be a stretch to call Charles a top fantasy commodity right now.

Kudos to coach Mike Singletary for realizing his preferred smash mouth style doesn’t fit his personnel, as the team allowed Alex Smith to operate out of the spread/shotgun formation 34 times last week and went with a pass-heavy philosophy right from the get go. Of course, the run/pass ratio likely won’t be so skewed moving forward, and Frank Gore needs his touches, but there’s no reason why Smith shouldn’t be given more opportunities with his most comfortable formation moving forward…I don’t care if his system typically ignores pass-catching tight ends, what was Mike Martz thinking with his use of Vernon Davis last year?…David Garrard has thrown just one touchdown pass over six games on the road this season.

Forget all this Vince Young nonsense, the Titans are undefeated ever since Jeff Fisher wore the Peyton Manning jersey. Seriously, how cool would it be if Young went 10-0 and Tennessee made the playoffs? A 99-yard game-winning drive with a TD pass coming on fourth down with no time left on the clock? You can’t make this stuff up, and the fact it came against Matt Leinart makes it all the more crazy. Over the last four games, Young has gotten 8.1 YPA and thrown just one pick…I can’t remember a fantasy player so fun to own as Chris Johnson this year. You do realize he’s totaled 968 yards over the last five contests, right? That’s a decent 3,098-yard season’s pace. He has three 85-yard TD runs this season. No other player in the history of the NFL has three in their entire careers…Kenny Britt is good. The rest of the AFC playoff contenders should really be hoping the Titans don’t make the postseason…One take away from the Cardinals’ loss is that they nearly won a road game against a surging team without Kurt Warner. Leinart wasn’t awful, but that was one conservative gameplan. Arizona is a very good football team. Should be a great game Sunday against the Vikings…I’ve never in my life seen a running back have so much trouble catching simple tosses than Beanie Wells has this season.

I’m beginning to think Brett Favre made the right decision returning to play another year. He’s never thrown fewer than 13 interceptions in any season during his 18-year career, yet is currently posting a 24:3 TD:INT ratio. Favre has done so while also completing a career-best 69.3 percent of his passes with a career-high 8.0 YPA (he’s only fumbled one time as well). Dude has a 12:0 TD:INT ratio over the past four games!…I love Adrian Peterson as much as anyone, but there’s no denying Chris Johnson is having the better season at running back, especially when you account for AP’s five lost fumbles already…If you saw Jay Cutler’s TD pass to Johnny Knox last week, you know why plenty of people still believe in his ability – the upside is just so apparent. However, Cutler’s arm has never been questioned; it’s his decision-making and turnover proneness that are the major issues.

After taking the Cardinals and Steelers last week, remind me never to back a team ATS with their quarterback coming off a concussion, even if they practice fully the week after. Dennis Dixon wasn’t awful, but Baltimore should be ashamed of themselves for nearly losing last week. The Ravens have a strong resume, losing to only the best teams in the league this year, but they haven’t played good football for a month now…As long as Ben Roethlisberger is able to return this week without complications, I say Pittsburgh runs the table, makes the playoffs and maybe even wins the AFC North.

The receivers deserve plenty of credit as well, but you’d be hard pressed to find a better performance than Drew Brees on Monday night. New England’s secondary blew a couple of assignments, but for the most part, that was one of the best players in the league showing some of the best accuracy you’ll ever see. Brees threw five touchdown passes with 371 yards on just 23 attempts! Right now, his 112.6 QB rating would rank as the fourth best in a given season in the history of the NFL…Tom Brady certainly wasn’t at his finest, but it’s now clear New Orleans has the best secondary in football. Their 6.2 YPA and nine TDs allowed are both second-best in the league, while their 22 interceptions and opposing 57.6 QB rating both rank first in the NFL…That’s three lost fumbles over the past three games for Laurence Maroney, but he’s also scored eight touchdowns over the past six contests, so as long as he stops fumbling, he’ll be a major fantasy asset down the stretch, although not one without risk. Not only is Sammy Morris back, but Fred Taylor still looms as well. Hold onto that football, Maroney…The Patriots are essentially winless on the road this season. Their record shows them 1-4, but New England’s lone win away from home came on a neutral field in London, so this is a team that struggles when traveling. However, I still think they are legitimate Super Bowl threats.


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4 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. The Jewru Avatar
    The Jewru

    Great write up DDD. About time you tooted the CJ horn. Check this stat out.

    1958 17 428 25.2 Jim Brown
    1997 11 407 37.0 Barry Sanders
    2009 9 406 45.1 Chris Johnson

    Got this from Chase Stuart.

    Jim Brown holds the record for the most yardage accrued on TD runs in a season with 428 on 17 TD’s. Chris Johnson has 406 on 9 freaking runs with an average TD run being 45.1 yards. He has 5 more games to crush this record. This is a historical season which simply isn’t being talked about enough. Chris Johnson is the best back in football PERIOD!!!

  2. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Which of these 3 do you sit this week – Garcon, Rock or K. Smith?

  3. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Jewru – Good stuff. Totally agree. Easily best RB in the NFL right now. Not even all that close. Look at all the advantages AP has too. Imagine if V. Young had been starting from the beginning too.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Robby – I’d probably sit K. Smith, but ask me again Saturday.

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