The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Michael Turner is a top-five fantasy commodity, but he gets it done in a rather rare way. His yardage totals can vary wildly, especially since he offers next to nothing as a receiver. However, his TD production is about as consistent as it gets, as he’s reached paydirt in seven straight games. He’s also gotten 44 percent of his rushing yards this year over his last two games (317). Turner is proving how silly the 370-carry curse thing is too. I worry about workloads more than anyone, but that matters more over a career, and Turner entered 2009 with extremely low mileage on his legs. Running backs often fail to repeat big performances coming off 370-carry type seasons because rarely do ideal conditions remain the same in the NFL, not because they received one more carry than 369…Ladell Betts has failed to impress ever since his surprise 2006 season, but it will be interesting to see what a different RB can do in this offense. Odds are not much with that offensive line, but the current version of Clinton Portis offered zero explosion…A tougher schedule and more game film are mostly to blame, but Matt Ryan has taken a step back this year, as his YPA has dropped a full yard (7.9 to 6.9), and he’s thrown just one fewer pick over eight games compared to his rookie season. Ryan’s future no doubt remains bright but true stardom is still some time away.

The Bears are tough to define right now, as they are the only team in football with two wins by 20 points and two losses by 20 points this season. One thing is clear; they certainly can’t be viewed as elite and have been pretty big disappointments. If Lovie Smith can’t fix the defense himself, where do they go from here?…Quietly, Devin Hester has developed into a legitimate WR2 for fantasy purposes. Over the last four games, he’s racked up 27 receptions and 359 yards. That’s a season’s pace of 108 catches and 1,436 yards…With a 4-0 record on the road this year, the Cardinals already have won more games away from home than during last year’s Super Bowl run (in the regular season), but the big play still eludes them. In fact, Arizona has just two plays that have gone for more than 27 yards all season, which is pretty incredible. Of course, Larry Fitzgerald’s fantasy value remains intact, as the multi-faceted receiver can beat you in a number of ways.

Not much more can be said for Cedric Benson’s fantastic season, as he’s totaled 470 rushing yards with four scores over the past four games. No running back had ran for 100 yards in 39 games against the Ravens’ front seven until Benson did so each of the past two times he’s faced Baltimore. The 4.2 YPC and lack of catches are a knock, but he’s obviously improved greatly as a runner, and the volume can’t be denied; he’s on pace to finish the year with 396 carries, which would be the seventh most in a single season in the history of the NFL…Ray Rice has been an even more valuable fantasy back, and he’s done so in a much different way, as he’s on pace to finish with just 216 rushing attempts. Rice’s eight receptions last week nearly matched the rest of Baltimore’s receivers (10) combined…Joe Flacco has a 1:4 TD:INT ratio against the Bengals this year and an 11:3 TD:INT ratio against the rest of the league.

Steve Slaton owners obviously can’t be happy with Ryan Moats dominating the carries last week, but there’s plenty of room for optimism as well. Moats managed just 2.4 YPC against a middling Colts’ run defense and also lost a fumble himself near the goal line (how did Houston not run a play before the two minute warning to prevent the challenge from occurring?). Slaton wasn’t much better on the ground during his limited work (2.8 YPC), but he did convert a goal-line score, and the Texans’ offense is simply much harder to defend when he’s on the field and used as a weapon as a receiver. The bye week might have come at a perfect time, as Slaton could reemerge as the team’s primary ballcarrier in Week 11. He’s a huge risk because one more fumble and all bets are off, but it might be worth at least seeing how cheap you can acquire Slaton right now…After Kris Brown had his field goal blocked to end the first half only to get another chance (which he made) because Indy called a timeout beforehand, can we end that silly practice once and for all?…Peyton Manning, who attempted a whopping 42 passes in the first half Sunday, was sacked in the fourth quarter for the first time all season. Can’t wait for the Colts/Patriots showdown in Week 10.

I love Mike Sims-Walker, who has helped carry my Yahoo! Friends & Family team, but it would be nice if David Garrard improved his play on the road this season (5.7 YPA, zero touchdown passes)…Nice debut by Chris Chambers in a Chiefs’ uniform, but I’d be surprised if that doesn’t ultimately go down as his best game of the 2009 season…Maurice Jones-Drew is an absolute beast, on pace to finish the year with 1,870 total yards and 22 touchdowns…With Larry Johnson jettisoned, coming off the bye and a healthier offensive line, it was discouraging to see the Chiefs give Jamaal Charles just six carries. An early lopsided score was part of the problem, but Kansas City needs to trust him on runs between the tackles, as Kolby Smith is hardly the answer. Charles will be worked more into the offense moving forward, and because he’ll be involved as a receiver, he can be a fantasy factor in the right matchups, like this week in Oakland (and in Weeks 14/15 versus Buffalo and Cleveland).

Miami is better than its 3-5 record indicates, but last week marked the third straight game the Wildcat has been completely shutdown, and with a first-year starter at quarterback throwing to possibly the worst group of receivers in football, the team remains a work in progress…Why would any defense single cover Randy Moss? That’s pure insanity…Laurence Maroney has quietly been productive for three straight games. The 20 carries he received last week were his most since Week 15 in 2007, so he may be regaining his coaches’ trust. It remains to be seen what will happen when/if Sammy Morris returns from his knee injury, but Maroney is clearly the most talented back on New England’s roster, so if he’s finally recovered from all those injuries and the light bulb has also turned on, he could be a difference maker from here on out. Of course, he’s better known for disappointing.

I’ve tried to defend Green Bay all year, but you simply can’t give up 21 fourth quarter points to a Tampa Bay team with a rookie QB making the first start of his career. The Bucs’ backfield has become useless in fantasy leagues, but Josh Freeman impressed Sunday, especially when utilized out of the shotgun. At the very least, Kellen Winslow owners can breath a huge sigh of relief…At what point do we consider Greg Jennings a “sell-low” candidate rather than a “buy-low” one?…The Packers’ offensive line is very bad, but Aaron Rodgers deserves a ton of blame for all those sacks. Staying in the pocket to the last second is admirable and can often lead to big plays (see: Roethlisberger, Ben), but Rodgers holds onto the ball far, far too long in most cases. It’s a big problem right now.

When on their game, the Panthers can run on any team, but it’s also clear the Saints’ front seven badly misses Sedrick Ellis and Scott Fujita. Set your lineups accordingly…I’d still rate Adrian Peterson as the NFL’s best running back, but DeAngelo Williams is a close second (I’d put Chris Johnson third). Williams has improved as a pass-catcher this season, and if not for Jonathan Stewart, he might very well be the No. 1 fantasy commodity. As is, he’ll have to settle for being a top-five option…If nothing else, Lance Moore’s ankle injury makes both Devery Henderson and Robert Meachem more attractive fantasy starts for owners in a bind…New Orleans has outscored its opponents 91-18 in the fourth quarter this year… I love Drew Brees as much as the next guy, but he’s committed eight turnovers over the past three games, which is an awful lot…Mike Bell will remain involved, but Pierre Thomas has clearly regained his role as the Saints’ lead back. He should currently be viewed as a top-10 fantasy running back, at minimum.

For those who backed Seattle ATS and were down 27-0 at the end of the first quarter (and by “those” I mean me), Sunday’s backdoor cover was a beautiful thing. Seriously, how does a Seahawks team playing at home with Matt Hasselbeck nearly lose to a Detroit team whose quarterback throws five interceptions?…For my money, John Carlson has been one of the bigger fantasy disappointments of 2009…I know he’s old and all, but Dick Stockton might want to learn how to pronounce Olindo Mare’s name before he announces another Seattle game…With a terrible offensive line, a balky back and damaged ribs, Hasselbeck isn’t a great bet to last the rest of the season. However, with a shaky defense and awful running game, he should be a solid QB1 when upright. He won’t attempt 51 passes each game like he did last week, but it’s safe to expect Seattle to throw as frequently as any team in the league moving forward, meaning he’ll put up counting stats even if he’s not as efficient as the league’s best signal callers. Remember, Hasselbeck tossed 28 touchdowns while getting just 7.1 YPA two years ago. Getting left tackle Sean Locklear (ankle) back will be huge, and with a ridiculously favorable upcoming schedule against the pass, Hasselbeck will be well worth using.

Over his last 24 games, Philip Rivers has thrown 48 touchdown passes and has gotten 8.3 YPA. He plays in favorable weather conditions in San Diego and has solid weapons to work with, but he gets little support from the running game and has to overcome Norv Turner as his head coach. Rivers is 28 years old and would easily be a top-five pick if a team were starting a franchise from scratch. It’s past time he’s recognized as one of the NFL’s best players…The Giants lost Sunday, but they played well on all accounts: held SD to just 226 yards (and 80 were gained in the final two minutes), got 4.0 YPC on offense (compared to just 2.3 for the Chargers), and Eli Manning posted a 112.6 QB rating. Don’t get me wrong, the defense continues to underperform, and the offense really struggles in the red zone, but this is still a very dangerous 5-4 team (and only the second one in NFL history to start 5-0 and then lose the next four games)…I’m beginning to think LaDainian Tomlinson might be slowing down some. Seriously, get Darren Sproles more touches!…Antonio Gates has scored in just two of his past 14 games played.

I actually think the 49ers are still very much alive in the NFC West, but do you realize they haven’t won a game since Week 4?…Vernon Davis will enter 2010 No. 1 on most TE draft boards, with Dallas Clark a close second. Not only is VD on pace for 84 catches and 954 yards, but he’s also tied for the NFL lead with seven touchdowns (and in a tight end twist, both Greg Olsen and Visanthe Shiancoe have six scores)…Football is such a team sport, I hate pointing to records when it comes to evaluating a quarterback, but it’s at least interesting that Vince Young is now 20-11 as a starter throughout his career. It’s been just two games, obviously, but his current completion percentage (64.3) and YPA (7.1) are both easily career-highs…I keep hearing Chris Johnson referred to as “boom-or-bust,” but he’s gotten fewer than 94 yards in just two of his eight games this year. I guess when so many games are “boom,” anything less appears “bust.” Johnson’s 6.7 YPC mark is the highest for the league’s leading rusher through nine weeks since 1970. I’d personally rank him as the third best RB in the NFL, and barring an injury, he’ll enter 2010 as a universal top-five fantasy pick.

Tony Romo is playing the best football of anyone in the NFL over his past four games, as he’s gotten 9.1 YPA with a 9:1 TD:INT ratio over that span. He’s now undefeated over his past 13 starts in November, and while it was nice to see Roy Williams get involved, expect Miles Austin to be targeted more moving forward…The Eagles are truly an enigma. They finished in the top-four in both pass defense (6.1 YPA) and run defense (3.5 YPC) last year yet barely made the playoffs. They then went on to make the NFC Championship game and continue to confound again this season. Donovan McNabb can both be viewed as overrated (career 6.8 YPA) and underrated (entered last week with the lowest interception percentage in the history of the NFL), and while Andy Reid is easily one of the best coaches from Monday-Saturday, he’s equally as bad on game days. I don’t want to harp too much about his decision to attempt a 52-yard field goal (Akers had made 3-of-10 from 50-plus yards since 2005) with 4:30 left in Sunday’s game with zero timeouts left when he still needed to score a touchdown to have any chance of winning the game, but let’s just say it was one of the most bizarre decisions I’ve ever witnessed in sports. The Eagles’ franchise is worth roughly $1.024 billion, yet Reid continuously gets away with this type of decision-making. I don’t get it. Hey, at least he accomplished the impossible – Wade Phillips actually outcoached someone.

It means little that Pittsburgh barely beat Tennessee on opening night and lost to the Bears the following week, as this Steelers team is clearly one of the most dangerous in football right now. Ben Roethlisberger is attempting 32.8 passes per game this year compared to 29.3 last season, yet is getting an astronomical 8.8 YPA. Rashard Mendenhall, meanwhile, is getting 5.7 YPC and continues to impress…There’s not much fantasy value to be had in Denver right now, at least other than Brandon Marshall. It’s worth noting that his yards-per-catch numbers have dropped for the third straight season, but with Denver’s defense regressing and a more difficult upcoming schedule, expect the team to rely heavily on Marshall moving forward.