NFL Barometer

By Dalton Del Don

RISERS

Ricky Williams, RB, MIA – With Ronnie Brown succumbing to yet another serious injury, Williams immediately becomes a must-start weekly. Brown’s foot injury ends his season, and while Williams is 32 years old, his current 5.3 YPC mark is actually a career-high, and he’s also been involved as a receiver. The Wildcat package may have to take a backseat, but with few running back options remaining in Miami, Williams is going to get a heavy workload from here on out. He could be a top-10 fantasy back over the rest of the season.

Bernard Scott, RB, CIN – Cedric Benson’s hip injury doesn’t appear to be serious, but he’s likely to sit out Week 11 against a beatable Raiders team, leaving Scott to handle most of the Bengals’ backfield duties. Larry Johnson was signed, but there’s no guarantee he’s even active this week, and he’s not ready to contribute immediately. Scott has gotten just 3.3 YPC during his limited work this season, but he’s looking at 15-20 touches Sunday against an Oakland defense that has allowed 4.4 YPC and an NFL-high 14 rushing touchdowns.

Donnie Avery, WR, STL – Avery hauled in four catches for 67 yards and two scores last week, and while he’s still searching for his first 100-yard receiving game of the year, he’s clearly the Rams’ No. 1 receiver. Steven Jackson remains the centerpiece of St. Louis’ offense, but with a bad defense and an extremely favorable upcoming schedule against the pass, Avery could be a factor down the stretch.

Vince Young, QB, TEN – Since taking over QB duties, Young has completed 65.7 percent of his passes and got 7.6 YPA while remaining dangerous as a runner. It’s a small sample size, of course, but the improved accuracy is huge, as he’s completed just 58.0 percent of his throws throughout his career. Young still has fantasy upside because of his running ability, but his ceiling isn’t too high because the Titans will avoid asking him to throw more than 20-25 times a game. Still, his recent performances have been highly encouraging.

Knowshon Moreno, RB, DEN – An early fumble by Correll Buckhalter led to Moreno dominating carries in Denver’s backfield last week, as he saw 18 rushing attempts to just two by Buckhalter. Moreno has lacked big play ability during his rookie season, but he got 5.4 YPC last week, and he might have earned the featured role in the process.

Ladell Betts, RB, WAS – Making his first start of the year, Betts ran for 114 yards on 26 carries with a touchdown last week. The performance came against a Broncos defense that has played well against the run this season, so Betts looks like an upgrade over Clinton Portis, who was clearly in decline even before suffering a concussion. Portis’ head injury could prove serious, and it wouldn’t shock if he misses a good chunk of time.

Jamaal Charles, RB, K.C. – Charles totaled 117 yards and ran a 44-yard touchdown last week, which was Kansas City’s first score on the ground all season. Charles isn’t built to carry 25 times a game, but he’s averaged 5.4 YPC during his career and is a major weapon as a receiver out of the backfield. With Kolby Smith completely unimpressive during his return from a knee injury (he got 1.3 YPC last week), Charles may have secured the featured role in KC’s backfield. He has a tough test in Week 11 against the Steelers, but the Chiefs’ schedule eases up after that, including favorable matchups in Week 14 and 15 versus the Bills and Browns.

Justin Forsett, RB, SEA – Taking over for an injured Julius Jones last week, Forsett totaled 149 yards with a touchdown on just 22 touches. Forsett has gotten 6.6 YPC on the year and is a force as a receiver, so it’s curious why it took an injury for him to see the field more. Jones’ status is up in the air, but it’s safe to expect him to miss at least Week 11, and while the matchup is difficult in Minnesota, Forsett should be productive as long as he’s the team’s starter. There aren’t many options behind him, so he’s going to get all the touches he can handle.

FALLERS

Brian Westbrook, RB, PHI – Westbrook suffered his second concussion over the past three weeks last Sunday, putting the rest of his season and even career in jeopardy. He’s visiting specialists this week, and right now, his life after football is far more important than his return to the field. Westbrook had a glassy-eyed look on the sidelines last week, and both of the recent concussions seemed severe. It would be surprising if he returns in 2009.

Jay Cutler, QB, CHI – Cutler is coming off a five-interception game against the 49ers last week and has now been picked off 19 times over the past 10 contests. He threw the second most interceptions last season and easily “leads” the league in that category this year. Too many have also occurred in the red zone, so Cutler is simply being too loose with the football. He’s still developing a rapport with his receivers in Chicago, and a poor Bears offensive line hasn’t helped, but Cutler’s 7.0 YPA mark is highly disappointing. He has a 4:10 TD:INT ratio over the past four games.

Matt Ryan, QB, ATL – Ryan has already been picked off more times this year (12) than all of last season (11), and his YPA has dropped from 7.9 all the way down to 6.7, including a paltry 5.9 over his past five games. He’s been responsible for a whopping 11 turnovers over that same five-game span, so despite the addition of Tony Gonzalez, Ryan has regressed during his sophomore campaign. He still has a bright future, but he’s only currently worth using in fantasy leagues if the matchup is right.

Michael Turner, RB, ATL – Turner suffered a high-ankle sprain last week, although the injury isn’t considered too serious. Still, he’s likely to miss at least Week 11, which is too bad because he has gotten 9.1 YPC over his past three games and had already eclipsed 100 yards rushing through one quarter last week. As a result, Jason Snelling should get the bulk of the workload in Atlanta’s backfield while Turner is sidelined, so Snelling deserves a big upgrade as well.

Trent Edwards, QB, BUF – When you’re benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick, who has gotten 5.2 YPA with a 14:21 TD:INT ratio throughout his career, you know things have gone south. Edwards has dealt with poor offensive line play, but his reluctance to go downfield has been maddening, as he checks down far too often. Still, 30 career starts is hardly enough to definitely declare him a bust, so in what looks like a lost season, there’s no reason why Buffalo shouldn’t stick with its former third round pick, as Fitzpatrick is obviously not the long-term answer.

Kyle Orton, QB, DEN – Orton was on his way to a big game last week (193 passing yards, two TDs, 10.7 YPA) before a sprained ankle knocked him out of the second half. He’s expected to return to action in Week 11, but it’s at least worth noting that last year an ankle sprain severely affected his play; he got 7.4 YPA with a 10:4 TD:INT ratio before the injury and just 5.4 YPA with an 8:8 TD:INT ratio afterward.

Darren McFadden, RB, OAK – Darren McFadden returned to action last week, but he was given just four carries compared to 10 for Justin Fargas and 14 for Michael Bush. McFadden was eased back into work coming off the injury, but he’s simply too unreliable right now with Fargas and Bush so involved. Even when healthy, McFadden has gotten just 3.1 YPC this season and hasn’t been nearly as involved as a receiver as hoped. Stay away.

Dwayne Bowe, WR, K.C. – Even before Bowe was suspended four games, he was on pace to finish the season with just 59 catches and 828 receiving yards, so he’s been a huge disappointment. He’s not due to return to action until Week 15, and it’d be awfully risky using him right away, so feel free to drop him. With few other options in the passing attack, Chris Chambers needs to be added in fantasy leagues. He’s played well during his two games in a Chiefs’ uniform and should be targeted heavily from here on out, so even if he’s inefficient like usual, the fantasy numbers should be there.