NFL Barometer

By Dalton Del Don

RISERS

Braylon Edwards, WR, NYJ – Edwards wasted no time getting acclimated to the Jets’ offense, catching five balls for 64 yards and a touchdown during his New York debut Monday. In fact, a borderline review overturned a second TD, and he nearly had another score on a deep ball as well. Jerricho Cotchery is still dealing with a hamstring injury, and it’s telling Edwards was targeted nine times just days after getting traded. He’s happy to be out of Cleveland, and while his hands will likely remain inconsistent, the Jets will better utilize his talents than the Browns did. The trade is a big upgrade for Edwards’ fantasy value.

Miles Austin, WR, DAL – Miles entered Week 5 with just five receptions for 81 yards over four games this season, so expectations should probably still be tempered after Sunday’s outburst (10 catches, 250 yards). That said, Austin is by far Dallas’ most explosive receiver, so he must move into the starting lineup over the mediocre Patrick Crayton immediately. Even when Roy Williams returns, which should be after this week’s bye, he’s hardly dominant enough to demand most of Tony Romo’s attention. In fact, Romo targeted Austin a whopping 15 times Sunday, including three in the red zone. Austin is the No. 1 waiver priority this week.

Ahmad Bradshaw, RB, NYG
– Bradshaw totaled 165 yards with two touchdowns on just 12 touches Sunday, and while he won’t have the benefit of facing Oakland every week, it was an extremely impressive performance nevertheless. Bradshaw is now averaging 6.2 YPC throughout his career, and he’s dangerous as a receiver as well. He hasn’t been given even 15 carries in a game this season, yet remains a viable flex option regardless. If Brandon Jacobs were to suffer a serious injury, Bradshaw would immediately become a top-five fantasy back.

Jeremy Maclin, WR, PHI – Maclin broke out in a big way Sunday, catching six balls for 142 yards and two touchdowns. Regardless of Kevin Curtis’ health, Maclin needs to move into the starting lineup from this point forward. The rookie is likely to remain inconsistent this year, as he’s still rather raw, and the Eagles spread the ball around on offense. Still, it’s worth noting Maclin led Philadelphia with eight targets Sunday while DeSean Jackson saw just three. That type of distribution can’t be expected to continue, but Maclin’s TD catches were highly impressive, and it’s clear he has a bright future in the league. Philadelphia loves to throw (just 12 rushing attempts by running backs last week despite a 33-14 blowout), so Maclin needs to be added in all fantasy formats.

Donnie Avery, WR, STL – The Rams remain a mess on offense, but Avery is back to being the team’s No. 1 wide receiver, which resulted in five catches for 87 yards and a score last week. Keenan Burton actually saw more targets (nine) than Avery (seven), but the latter was far more productive with his looks and should continue to be involved in an offense that will be forced to throw frequently, thanks to a terrible defense. Avery flashed as a rookie, so despite the slow start to his sophomore campaign, he’s a WR3 option moving forward.

Roddy White, WR, ATL – And that is why you never bench your studs. White’s slow start came to an end last week, when he hauled in eight balls for 210 yards and two touchdowns. Not that White ever deserved to be downgraded in the first place, but Sunday’s outburst was a good reminder of why he was drafted so high in the first place.

Sammy Morris, RB, NE – Owning Patriots running backs can be frustrating, but with Fred Taylor (ankle) out of the way, Morris is the closest thing to a feature back in New England. Whatever the reason, Laurence Maroney has fallen out of favor, and Morris managed 107 total yards against a tough Denver defense last week. He’s finally healthy after an injury-plagued preseason, and Morris is an option as a receiver out of the backfield as well as being the goal-line guy. New England has a tough matchup against the Titans in Week 6 (they’ve allowed a league-low 2.8 YPC on the year), but Morris is a decent flex option as the back most likely to get the most touches in the Patriots’ system.

Eddie Royal, WR, DEN – Royal finally showed a pulse Sunday, catching 10 balls for 90 yards (more than doubling his season totals in both categories in the process) against the Patriots. He’s still not a safe weekly start, but it was encouraging to see him targeted 15 times. With an upcoming game in San Diego, a shootout could be in store, so hopefully Royal remains a big part of Denver’s offense.

FALLERS

Calvin Johnson, WR DET – After a back injury essentially ruined his rookie season, Johnson has dealt with a thumb injury, a thigh injury and now a knee injury this year. It’s safe to question his durability at this point. Johnson looks unlikely to play in Week 6, and fantasy owners can only hope he returns fully healthy after the following week’s bye. He’s been a pretty big disappointment, and an injury-prone label is starting to fit.

Willis McGahee, RB BAL – Since getting 15 carries in Week 2, McGahee has seen his rushing attempts fall to seven to five and then to just one during the three subsequent games. He’s still on pace to somehow score 22 touchdowns this season and remains the goal-line runner, but Ray Rice has clearly secured the feature back role in Baltimore. As a result, McGahee is a risky fantasy option week-to-week, as his value will almost assuredly be tied to scoring. He can still be used in favorable matchups, but McGahee’s decreased role is worrisome.

Jerome Harrison, RB, CLE – Despite impressing over the previous two weeks, Harrison took a backseat to Jamal Lewis on Sunday, as the veteran returned from a hamstring injury and was immediately back in the feature role. In fact, Lewis was given 31 carries while Harrison saw just eight. Lewis’ 3.8 YPC mark wasn’t overly impressive, but he looked refreshed after sitting out a couple of weeks, and Cleveland will continue to give him a full workload. Lewis is 30 years old and has accrued 2,455 career carries, so he remains a candidate to breakdown, but until then, Harrison loses all his fantasy value.

Julius Jones, RB, SEA – During a game in which Seattle won 41-0, Jones mustered just 36 total yards without a score. He’s still the team’s No. 1 running back, but three of his five games this season have been complete duds, continuing a theme of inconsistency that has plagued Jones throughout his career. With Matt Hasselbeck back, Seattle’s offense is strong, so Jones could benefit from being in a positive situation. Still, it’s hard to count on him.

Kerry Collins, QB, TEN – Not that many fantasy owners are using Collins, but this is a downgrade for the entire Tennessee passing attack. Collins has gotten just 5.8 YPA this year and already has thrown as many interceptions (seven) as he did all of last season. With an 0-5 record that should only get worse with an upcoming matchup in New England, the following bye week would be a good time to make the switch to Vince Young. The team might as well see if there’s any hope at all for Young in the future, as Collins is clearly not the long-term answer. It remains to be seen how Young will react, but it’s safe to say wide receivers Nate Washington and Kenny Britt will suffer as a result, because Young has been terribly inaccurate as a passer throughout his career.

Anthony Gonzalez, WR, IND – Gonzalez shouldn’t be dropped in deeper leagues, but it’s disconcerting that the wide receiver isn’t going to be able to return to practice during Indy’s bye week. It appears Gonzalez is going to be out for some time still, as the knee injury was clearly serious. Moreover, the emergence of Austin Collie and Pierre Garcon mean Gonzalez isn’t necessarily going to be a big part of the offense once he does return to the field. The Colts’ young receivers have really impressed and will remain involved from here on out.


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26 responses to “NFL Barometer”

  1. Steve Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover Avatar
    Steve Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover

    Ugh! Will we ever learn? Sammy Morris always emerges from the Patriots backfield pileup here in the post-Corey Dillon era!

    Running backs suck! Next year my league is starting two TEs, two kickers and one damn RB!

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    So true about Morris.

  3. I am Jack's fantasy football team Avatar
    I am Jack’s fantasy football team

    Just listened to the RotoWire podcast from 10/14. Good stuff. Again.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Thanks man. I totally forgot to post that here. I was on for a full hour that time.

  5. I am Jack's fantasy football team Avatar
    I am Jack’s fantasy football team

    yeah, liked it so much in past, I went looking for it this time — big fan of listening to podcasts when I exercise or drive long distances or fly

  6. Pernell Avatar
    Pernell

    Hey DDD,
    Should I start Braylon Edwards or DeSean Jackson? Fred Jackson or Ahmad Bradshaw? Greg Olsen or Kellen Winslow? Thanks.

  7. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Pernell, that Jackson vs. Bradshaw issue came up about a week ago, look at the comments from last week’s post discussing the weekly rankings issue. Consistent with the logic therein, points which Sunday’s results only subsequently reinforced to the nth degree, you simply cannot start Jackson over Bradshaw. Well, not if you want to field your best team you can’t, anyways. If you like to play roulette and make the inside bet on zero, then sure, go Jackson. The other two are pretty tough so I’ll leave them to the expert (personally, I’d go Jackson, just because, and Olsen, because Winslow is the only thing Johnson has going for him and now everyone knows it, FWIW).

    DDD, are you doing a rankings this week? If so just ignore this, I can wait, but if not, I guess I’ll pitch a few out there that I’m on the fence about:

    1. (Cassel @ Wash) vs. (Jake the Flake @ TB) as active QB2 in standardish format? Leaning Cassel as his floor is so much higher (at least he doesn’t have any negative-8 pt. days for me yet) and as he’s actually been quite consistently good, but that TB matchup for the Flake is pretty mouth-watering and he may have the ceiling. I’m a 21 pt. dog on the stupid points forecaster thing, which may or may not indicate that I could use upside in this matchup (damn Dolphins bye and that puss Calvin sitting).

    2. (Carlson v. Ariz) vs. (Olsen @ Atl) as TE? Leaning Carlson. No real rationale at work, just a hunch he’s due. If you see something in one of these matchups….

    3. (R. Bush v. NYG) vs. (Morris v. Ten) @ bye-week RB2 in PPR? Leaning heavily Morris despite Sportsline joke of a forecast, not because I love Morris, but because Bush has been so worthless.

    4. (Carolina D @ TB) vs. (Jacksonville D v. StL) in std. format? Currently have Carolina running, but the Lambs just look godawful. OTOH, the Jax D has been pretty much a sieve, I don’t know if I’m that brave….

  8. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    good stuff.
    So where would you rank Sammy Morris right now? Higher or lower than a Leon Washington type?

  9. Splevelbuge Avatar
    Splevelbuge

    Have to bench one? Randy moss, desean Jackson, Braylon Edwards, and Nate burleson?

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Pernell – I really like Braylon moving forward, especially this week in a plus matchup without Cotchery. That said, I’d go with D. Jackson – another good matchup, and I expect him to get force fed targets after being basically shutout last week and complaining throughout the week.

    Bradshaw over F. Jackson.

    Winslow and Olsen seems like a coin flip to me. Honestly, my advice would be to go with your own gut. I expect Olsen to get targeted more coming out of the bye, but Winslow already is getting targeted heavily.

  11. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – Not sure if I’ll get to the rankings or not this week. I thought last week’s format actually worked well – designed for specific questions while promoting good discussion.

    Anyway, I agree Cassel v. Delhomme is a close call this week, but I’d probably roll the dice on Delhomme. TB’s secondary has been, bar none the worst in the NFL. And they get burned deep too, an area S. Smith can take advantage (assuming Delhomme can get him the ball, of course).

    Man, that TE dilemma is like the one I talked about above. Flip a coin. Def. go with your own gut, I have no strong feeling either way. Tough call.

    I would agree about Morris, but the fact it’s PPR gives me pause. Then again, Morris catches balls too, and he’s more likely to score (although he does face the better run defense). I guess Morris it is.

    Carolina D – St. Louis actually put up 400 yards in Minny last week. Jax can’t get to the QB.

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald Trump – For this week, Washington and Morris about the same. Long-term, I’d give Morris the nod, unless T. Jones were to get hurt. Morris should be the goal-line guy in NE. Of course, relying on NE backs isn’t always the safest method.

  13. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Splevelbuge – Comes down to Braylon or Burleson to me. Zona has been tough against the run and bad against the pass, so Burleson has a good matchup, but man, no Cotchery this week. I guess I’d bench Burleson. It’s a great problem to have.

  14. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Thanks man–and hey, actually, truth be told, I prefer this anyway. I may well be getting better advice than I otherwise would’ve by simply following a highly generalized list, as I can provide a ton of context about format, matchups, etc. for consideration.

    PS: That ‘Sunny’ last night was the best one all season. Charlie was in rare form (Day is an awesome physical comic, the scene where he was trying to put on his charm face for that photo was hysterical), and Frank popping back about having staked his claim to the waitress was priceless.

    Finally, I’d recommend ‘Zombieland’ to anyone who hasn’t seen it, and this comes from someone who basically hates the genre (the only “zombie” movies I’ve ever liked at all were the ‘Evil Dead’ trilogy and ’28 Days/Weeks Later’). It was punchy and fun, and did a great job of staying in its powerband for pretty much the entire flick. No pretension, no overreaching, just a lighthearted and effective romp. Great matinee movie, and the Bill Murray cameo was the cherry on top.

  15. WorldWideInterTubes Avatar
    WorldWideInterTubes

    Zombieland recommended here too, but, um, why would you even refer to the BM cameo with anyone that hasn’t seen the film?

  16. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Um, why would Roger Ebert in his review? It’s in a thousand reviews already, I’m assuming most of the people reading this site are literate and read a daily paper. Also, the chick was actually a dude in ‘The Crying Game.’

  17. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Totally agree that the recent “Sunny” episode was the best of the season. Fullonrapist killed me.

    And I feel the same way about Zombieland. Not my kind of genre at all. The wife dragged me to see it, but it was def. entertaining, and the Bill Murray cameo was unbelievable. Best part by far. Fantastic.

    I also agree it would be better to watch that scene not knowing it’s coming, but I admit, I was planning on writing about that if I ever get around to another “ranting” article, so I might have ruined it myself.

  18. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    “Well, maybe I regret Garfield.”

  19. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Errr, this Calvin Johnson start has me reeling, I’m not sure what to do. If you happen to check this in the next 47 minutes, what two of the following three are you starting (two positions, WR2 and RB/WR):

    1. Calvin @ GB. He’s a puss, their bye is coming up, and the Packers’ cornerbacks, despite having a combined age on the order of Methuselah, is pretty damn effective. OTOH, he’s Calvin Johnson….

    2. Manningham @ NO. He’s no Calvin Johnson, but there are less doubts as to his health, and presumably the Jints aren’t blowing the Saints out so it’s not like they should yank him in the first half like last week.

    3. Morris vs. Tenn. Did you know this guy is 32 freaking years old? How has he stuck around on the margins so long? It’s weird? Anyway, Tenny run D is competent, but he only needs the one score to be effective as he’ll probably still get 50+ on 20+ carries. The other two may have higher ceilings….

  20. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Nevermind, apparently that was a false report, now I see two sources are confirming he’s NOT playing. It’s better for me anyway. I hope he uses the two (i.e. 2.95)-week layoff to find a bigger set of balls.

  21. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ya him being inactive makes my decisions easier too. I really didn’t want to use him today.

  22. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    OH. MY. FUCKING. GOD. Stattracker says Slaton just got a RZ carry! Quick, someone check outside and see if the sky is falling.

  23. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    So, would you say I was overreacting if I cut Delhomme as a QB3 in a 12×2 league in order to pick up Vince Young? Is he seriously the worst QB in football? This guy was in the SB just a few years ago. He’s done.

  24. Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover Avatar
    Stevie Yay-Yo, Pro from Dover

    Yeah, like I said — Sammy Morris is the Pats RB to have.

    Sheesh.

  25. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – Not a stretch. Young at least has more upside I’d say (more of an unknown). Delhomme sucks.

  26. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Steve – I didn’t even realize it, but Morris is 32 years old.

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