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Bet on It

By Dalton Del Don

Last week I went 8-6, bringing my season total to 45-45, so it’s like I’m starting over again. My best bet (the Chiefs) were underdogs who won outright, so I’m 4-2 with those so far. I really don’t like all these big spreads, which has been a theme all season, but let’s take a look at the Week 7 slate:

49ers +3 at TEXANS (Best Bet)

Chargers -4.5 at CHIEFS

Colts – 13.5 at RAMS

Patriots – 15 at BUCCANEERS

Vikings +4 at STEELERS

Packers -7 at BROWNS

BILLS +7.5 at Carolina

JETS -6.5 At Oakland

Bears +1.5 at BENGALS

FALCONS +4 at Cowboys

Saints -7 at DOLPHINS

Cardinals +7 at GIANTS

EAGLES -7 at Redskins

Comments: More than half of this week’s slate consists of home dogs, which is something you’ll rarely see. Of course, that typically means there’s value there, but it’s tougher to choose which ones with so many extra options. No “best bets” jumped out at me this week like they usually do, and I don’t love Houston’s setup (them coming off a big road win, SF coming off a bye), but three points suggests these two teams are equal, something I can’t get on board with. Over their past three contests, the Texans haven’t allowed a running back to reach 45 rushing yards in a game, ceding 2.5 YPC over that span. So while their season numbers look poor against the rush, it’s not necessarily a good matchup for Frank Gore. Meanwhile, Shaun Hill has gotten 6.2 YPA this season, and the 49ers have yet to get even 200 net yards passing in a single game all year. The difference in passing attacks here is about as stark as it gets. Back the Texans.

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10 responses to “Bet on It”

  1. Walt Weiss Avatar
    Walt Weiss

    Good call on the Texans, but why do you insist on blowing the Saints game every week? They are undefeated against the spread, and although there is the drama of Ricky Williams against his former team, that’s not going to be enough to get the fish within a touchdown of the NFL’s most dominant team.

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dude, I switched last week – my original feeling was N.O. Made me so mad. But remember when NE went 8-0 ATS over the first half of the season two years ago, and then 1-7 over the second half? Lines will bring a correction eventually. That said, I really don’t even disagree with them being the best team in football. The D is legit. But this is kind of a trap game — huge win last week, upcoming MNF game against ATL, MIA at home coming off a bye with a gimmicky offense that could control TOP.

    All that said, I wouldn’t be surprised if they roll again.

    I totally overlooked the Ricky revenge!

  3. devinthedude Avatar
    devinthedude

    Looking pretty good but how can you go against my best bet Cardinals this week!! Look for Dallas to win big they play slightly better than they did against giants, and should coming off a bye and needing a win, they will cover, especially since everyone is writing them off and picking them to lose outright (though I didn’t see one person all week pick ATL as best bet). Good luck with your best bet can’t wait to see how that game turns out Teams couldn’t be more different (games I usually stay away from).
    Sincerely yours,
    Devin the Dude

  4. Walt Weiss Avatar
    Walt Weiss

    Saints by 12. Never a doubt.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ya, when I was up 31-3, I was still worried.

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Devin The Dude – Great calls. Props. That said, I should have won with Houston!

  7. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    I need ur help on this one 3D, I’m being offered Megatron and Live and let Addai for Ray Rice, I love what Rice has been doing, but that does seem like an awesome offer, what say u? PPR league also…

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Who would Addai replace in your starting lineup? I am concerned about Calvin’s health, and Rice is a top-10 if not top-5 fantasy commodity. Still, D. Brown may be out a few weeks, so this is a pretty decent offer if you need depth. I’d try to wait and get an update on Calvin’s status before giving up Rice tho, if possible.

  9. Kritter Avatar
    Kritter

    I ended up doing the following and I realize it may look bad on paper, but I feel it helps me, remember the PPR thing…

    I got
    Larry Fitzgerald, and Addai

    for

    Chris Johnson (in my opinion not as valuable as Ray Rice), Sid Rice, and Rashard Mendenhall (I fear a Parker resurgance/injury)

    So now my lineup, barring injuries, and only changing in week 10 (Slaton’s bye) is…

    QB – Rodgers
    RB – R.Rice, Slaton, Addai
    WR – Fitz, Colston, Driver, Sims-Walker
    TE – At this point Vernon Davis, may grab Celek back tomorrow
    K – Crosby
    D – Colts or Steelers depending on matchup
    IDP – Harrison and Freeney

    What do u think, I have Santonio Holmes on my bench, and 2 free spots to work with beyond that, what should I do with those???

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Your lineup/team looks very good, but that’s a risky trade. I’m a believer in Mednenhall, and Sid Rice is looking like a top-15 WR. That said, obviously Fitzy should be huge. I’d def. keep V. Davis. As for your two free spots, depends on who is on your waiver wire.

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