The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

With three more homers and seven RBI over his past eight games, Garrett Jones simply won’t slow down, as he’s now up to 19 long balls over just 239 at-bats on the season.  Put differently, he’s hit one homer every 12.6 ABs. Mark Teixeira has hit one HR every 15.3 at-bats this year. Since Jones has also chipped in nine steals (caught just twice), he’s been one of the most valuable free agent additions in fantasy leagues this year. Jones is 28 years old and sports a career .762 OPS over nearly 4,000 at-bats in the minors, so no one expects this type of production to continue. Still, he’s clearly earned a starting role in Pittsburgh next year, and while regression is sure to come, most will expect it, so I doubt he’ll be all that overvalued in 2010. Jones is more valuable in daily formats, as he’s someone to bench against southpaws (.225/.241/.488).

After watching Pedro Martinez struggle mightily with the Mets last year, it was hard to be too optimistic about his chances of succeeding in Philadelphia, especially since it had been almost a full year since he last pitched when he joined the team in August. Despite moving to a tougher park on pitchers, Martinez has actually thrived for the Phillies, posting a 27:4 K:BB ratio over 29.2 innings. He’s been helped by an easy schedule, but his average fastball velocity is up to 88.7 mph – his highest mark since 2004. Still, no one would argue this is the Martinez of old, as his changeup is nowhere near as effective as it used to be. However, Martinez has always been one of the smartest pitchers in the game, so don’t be surprised if he continues to succeed despite diminished stuff.

Speaking of old pitchers who can still be highly effective, I don’t want to beat a dead horse, but John Smoltz currently has a 28:1 K:BB ratio while pitching for the Cardinals. Of course, Brad Penny’s success in San Francisco highlights how important the switch in leagues can be, but it’s hard to argue that Boston wouldn’t prefer Smoltz to Paul Byrd right now. Smoltz is going to be a major factor come playoff time, giving St. Louis the best top-three starting rotation of any team in the National League.

Over his last nine games, Rajai Davis is hitting .421 with 10 runs scored, a homer and five steals. In fact, he’s recorded 23 stolen bases since the All-Star break – the most in major league baseball. Davis is quite obviously hitting over his head, but with 86 steals over 708 career at-bats, the speed is very real. Since the A’s are giving him full playing time right now, he can remain a difference maker over the rest of the fantasy season.

Huston Street’s injury was unfortunate, but Colorado hasn’t missed a beat since then. Former top prospect Franklin Morales has dominated ninth inning duties, recording five saves over the past week. After getting hurt and posting a 9:17 K:BB ratio over 25.1 innings last season, Morales is back to missing bats, as he’s currently sporting a 9.4 K/9 mark. The move to the bullpen probably has something to do with the increased velocity, but a healthy arm is likely equally responsible. After seeing his average fastball velocity drop to 90.9 mph last season, it’s up to 93.1 mph this year, which is great news for a franchise that suddenly looks loaded for years to come. Speaking of the Rockies, Seth Smith is hitting .405 with four homers, 11 runs scored and 14 RBI over his last 10 games. While he’s been as successful as any pinch-hitter in baseball this season, it’s really been a shame he’s only received 285 at-bats. His .968 OPS is by far the best on the team.

With Josh Hamilton dealing with yet another injury, he’s going to be one of the tougher guys to rank entering next year. Clearly, he’s a major health risk, so he won’t be a consideration in the first two rounds like he was entering this season. The upside remains, especially playing in that park, and he’s quietly stolen 17 bases over the last two years (more like one and a half considering his 2009). However, other than his huge home run derby performance, Hamilton hasn’t shown the same kind of power since coming to the Rangers as he did in Cincinnati. The RBI production has been there, but he’s homered once per 22.7 at-bats since joining Texas – good but hardly elite. I’ll be curious to see where he goes in drafts next year. And what about teammate Hank Blalock? Entering 2009, you pretty much knew what you were going to get with Blalock, who was someone always at risk of injury but productive when in the lineup. Well, he’s been the opposite in 2009, staying mostly healthy yet really struggling at the plate. His current OPS (.744) is more than 100 points lower than it was last season and more than 150 points below where it was in 2007.

Speaking of disappointments, what has happened to B.J. Upton? I’ve personally been guilty of drafting him aggressively in each of the past two years, but it’s safe to assume he won’t be nearly as expensive next season. Here is someone who at age 23 put up a season in which he hit 24 homers and stole 22 bases over just 474 at-bats, posting an .894 OPS in the process. Since then, his career trajectory has gone in the wrong direction, highlighted by his current .673 OPS. His contact rate remains poor (.71), but most troubling, his walk rate, which was strong last year (.15), has absolutely plummeted (.09). There’s no reason to give up on Upton, who just turned 25 years old, especially with all that SB potential, but his brother currently looks like the far better keeper commodity.

Max Scherzer has a 4.99 ERA and 1.35 WHIP since the All-Star break, but he’s pitched far better than those numbers indicate, exemplified by a particularly unlucky August in which he posted a 6.47 ERA and 1.57 WHIP despite a 10.97 K/9 mark and a 3.6 K:BB ratio. His control has really improved since the break, while his K rate has remained outstanding. Forget the post All-Star break ERA and concentrate more on his 4.3 K:BB ratio, which reveals a potential ace, possibly as soon as 2010. Calling Chase Field home is far from ideal, but pitching in the NL West more than makes up for it. Scherzer is an excellent target next year.

What has gotten into Andy Pettitte? Despite a poor outing his last time out, he’s posted a 2.88 ERA and 1.05 WHIP after the All-Star break, thanks largely to a K rate that jumped from 5.85 K/9 in the first half to 8.90 K/9 afterward. Predictably, he’s pitched better on the road than at the new Yankee Stadium, but he’s affected far less by his home park being a left-hander. Bronson Arroyo is experiencing a similarly out-of-nowhere dominant second half as well, with a 2.42 ERA and 1.14 WHIP. But his peripherals aren’t nearly as good as Pettitte’s.

Although he’s since been shut down indefinitely, it was almost discouraging news to hear that an MRI on Alfonso Soriano’s knee didn’t reveal any major damage, as he would have at least had an excuse for such a terrible season. Of course, the injury likely affected him adversely, but it doesn’t sound like it’s solely to blame, and of course, him suffering yet another injury isn’t exactly comforting for his long-term outlook. It’s easy to forget, but Soriano finished April with seven home runs, four steals and a .955 OPS. It now looks like he’ll finish the season with the lowest OPS (.726) of his career. Fantasy baseball will always have its busts year in and year out, but the sport is typically less volatile than say football, especially at the top of drafts. But with Soriano, Jose Reyes, Grady Sizemore, Josh Hamilton, Carlos Beltran and BJ Upton, it seems as if there have been more disappointments than usual this season.

Madison Bumgarner more than held his own during his first career start, but it was the radar readings that was the real story, as his fastball topped out in the 87-88 mph range. He typically worked in the mid 90s with ease last season, when he dominated with a 15-3 record and a 1.46 ERA with a 164:21 K:BB ratio over 141.2 innings. His fastball velocity began dipping earlier this year, which was evident by the subsequent drop in K rate (6.3 K/9). Of course, moving up in leagues was partially to blame as well, and this is still a 20-year-old with a 1.85 ERA against competition typically much older than him, so it’s not like he’s no longer a terrific prospect. At 6-4, 215 lbs, Bumgarner has a funky delivery, similar to Brian Fuentes, so his heater can remain deceptively fast, even if all those mph don’t return. Still, after Tim Lincecum suffered an injury and the Rockies seemingly never losing, the last thing Giants fans wanted to see was their prize prospect suddenly transforming from a power pitcher (especially since the secondary pitches remain a work in progress) to a finesse lefty.