RotoScoop.com

By Dalton Del Don

1. San Diego Chargers

Comments: The defense and offensive line should be better than last year, and an already weak division regressed even further with the departure of Jay Cutler during the offseason. Philip Rivers became a true star last season, and the passing attack is loaded, so even if LaDainian Tomlinson continues to decline, it shouldn’t be much of a problem. And if he gets hurt, Darren Sproles is an upgrade at this stage of their careers anyway. Playing in such an awful division, San Diego is a threat to be the No. 1 seed in the AFC.

2. Oakland Raiders

Comments: After the Chargers, the rest of the AFC West is up for grabs. The Raiders are as dysfunctional as it gets, including the recent Richard Seymour trade, which was downright insane. Still, they might be the least worst of the other three teams in the division, especially if they stop wasting carries on Justin Fargas. While JaMarcus Russell may lack Juan Manuel Marquez’s dedication, he’s actually shown signs of being a useful QB. He got 7.5 YPA over the final sevens games last season, and the WR corps can’t help but be better this year. It wouldn’t be at all surprising if Oakland entered its Week 9 bye at 2-6 or even 1-7, but the schedule eases up after that.

3. Kansas City Chiefs

Comments: The Chiefs appear to be moving in the right direction, but the franchise is still a ways from being a playoff contender. The defense remains a work in progress, as does the offensive line. And there’s little depth behind Dwayne Bowe in the passing game. Matt Cassel struggles mightily with vertical throws, and he takes far too many sacks, but he should be an upgrade over Kansas City’s recent string of quarterbacks. Still, that doesn’t mean he’ll be above average. Todd Haley has his work cut out for him.

4. Denver Broncos

Comments: People can blame Jay Cutler all they want, but the fact remains the quarterback was 13-1 when Denver’s defense allowed fewer than 21 points over the past three seasons. Moreover, owner Pat Bowlen recently revealed he’s been suffering from short-term memory loss, and one source is adamant Cutler returned Bowlen’s phone calls multiple times. Either way, the Broncos are stuck with Kyle Orton at QB, a disgruntled Brandon Marshall and possibly the league’s worst defense. The offensive line is terrific, however, and Eddie Royal is a budding star. If Josh McDaniels can gameplan like he did in New England, the offense has plenty of potential. Still, don’t be shocked if Denver is 4-12 or even 3-13 this season.

There have been a couple of scheduling conflicts, so there are 2-4 open spots in the league. Draft is Tuesday at 6 PST. $50 entry fee. E-mail me at seven3d@aol.com if you want in.

By Dalton Del Don

I have mixed feelings regarding Steven Jackson. On one hand, the Rams might have the worst roster in the NFL – from the offensive line, to Marc Bulger, to the loss of Torry Holt. Moreover, Jackson has missed eight games over the past two seasons and has played a full 16-game slate just once over his five-year career. On the other hand, St. Louis upgraded its O-line through the draft and free agency and gets the advantage of playing in a weak NFC West division. Jackson, who is still just 26 years old, is two years removed from a season in which he totaled 2,334 yards with 16 touchdowns (and 90 receptions). His career mileage isn’t high, and he should be fresh entering 2009 after relatively low workloads the last two seasons (thanks to those injuries). Over his last three games to end last season, Jackson racked up 461 yards with three scores, and while his YPC hasn’t shown it recently, he possesses a rare combination of strength, speed and vision. New coach Steve Spagnuolo should improve the team as a whole, and he’ll center the offense around Jackson. There might not be a running back in the NFL who will come off the field less, as Jackson will dominate carries between the twenties, will catch a ton of passes and will get all of the goal-line work. Assuming he can avoid the injuries, of course. Personally, I’ve been hesitant to rank him as a top-five RB, but I also wouldn’t fault anyone for taking him as high as No. 3 overall.

I can see the reasoning behind targeting Larry Johnson this year. He’s now two seasons removed from the NFL-record setting 416-carry campaign, has relatively low mileage on his legs thanks to Priest Holmes and got a sneaky 4.5 YPC last year. He’s also saying all the right things this preseason. Still, if Todd Haley continues to use the spread offense, and he absolutely should, considering how starkly different Matt Cassel was when out of the shotgun last year compared to under center, Johnson isn’t going to be on the field nearly as much as your typical feature back. He’s just not used in passing situations any more, instead giving way to the impressive, albeit fumble-prone, Jamaal Charles. Again, I’m not avoiding Johnson at all costs, but he’s typically been going in the third round in my drafts, which is a price I’m unwilling to pay.

One Chief I am targeting, however, is Dwayne Bowe, who is firmly in my second tier of wide receivers, even ahead of Anquan Boldin. Ignore coach Todd Haley’s preseason depth chart, which had Bowe as low as the third strong earlier and still on the No. 2 squad as of Thursday, as it’s clearly a motivational tactic. Bowe struggles with drops, and he was highly inefficient last season, getting just 6.51 YPA (which ranked 33rd out of 35 wide receivers who received 100 targets). However, Bowe’s 157 targets were the third most in the NFL, and that number only figures to grow with Tony Gonzalez gone and Haley implementing a pass-heavy system (a requirement with such a bad KC defense). Few receivers in the history of the league have put up Bowe’s kind of production over their first two years in the NFL, and one can expect further growth in year three. Matt Cassel isn’t a top-10 QB, but he’s clearly an upgrade over the Chiefs’ QB situation last year, and although he struggles with throws downfield, that’s not Bowe’s strength anyway. Bowe could easily lead the league in targets in 2009, and he’ll be heavily active at the goal line as well. Go get him.

I’m undecided on Ryan Grant this season. I absolutely love the Packers and actually have them going to the Super Bowl, and with a defense that should be much-improved to go along with an offense that could be the best in the NFC, Grant is certainly in a fine position to succeed, especially since Brandon Jackson is no more than a change-of-pace option, and DeShawn Wynn struggles to stay healthy. But Grant doesn’t catch any passes, and he’s an unacceptable 5-for-25 during goal-line situations over the past two years. Maybe a preseason holdout followed by a lingering hamstring injury was to blame for his low 3.9 YPC mark in 2008, but Green Bay plays @Chicago and @Pittsburgh during Weeks 14 and 15 this season, so it’s unlikely Grant is a huge asset come playoff time. Those two teams ranked first and third in YPC against last year.

Normally I avoid aging running backs at all costs, but I’m starting to warm up to Brian Westbrook, who seems to be getting undervalued. Listen, he’s never once played a full 16-game schedule during his seven-year career and looked to be on the decline while playing on a gimpy ankle last year, averaging a career-low 4.0 YPC. He just turned 30 years old, but unlike LaDainian Tomlinson, who I wouldn’t draft this year even if it meant my league entry fee was free, Westbrook’s career mileage remains low (1,247 carries). I recently paid $40 for him in an auction and a participant replied, “I wouldn’t pay that much for 14 games.” I’d argue that statement actually makes Westbrook MORE valuable. Last year, playing on one leg essentially, Westbrook totaled 1,338 yards with 14 touchdowns. Now ask yourself, would you rather that kind of elite production in 14 games or 16 games? And I’ll assume offseason surgery has corrected the ankle/knee problems. I’d also argue LeSean McCoy’s presence is actually a good thing, as it finally gives Westbrook owners a clear handcuff. Sure, the rookie may take away some carries, but realize Westbrook totaled those 1,338 yards on just 233 rushing attempts last season, so it’s not like he’s Michael Turner, who relies on volume. And while McCoy ended up costing me $16 in that same auction, which means the Philadelphia back essentially cost $56 and not $40, that safety is huge. Who’s at more risk – me or the Matt Forte owner who didn’t buy Kevin Jones (and even if he did secure Jones, the drop off between starter and backup is much bigger than Westbrook to McCoy)? If that’s not enough, the Eagles have two home games against the 49ers and Broncos during Weeks 15 and 16, so Westbrook owners could be hugely rewarded when it matters most.

San Diego is unlikely to be a pass-heavy team this year, with a seemingly improved defense playing in an atrocious division. That said, Chris Chambers is a fine late round pick as a WR4 or WR5, even though he’ll be no better than the third option in the passing game. He’s always been an extremely inefficient receiver, even when he was putting up big numbers in Miami, but it’s worth noting Chambers had five touchdown receptions over the first five games last season before an ankle injury essentially ruined the rest of his year. Philip Rivers has become an elite quarterback, and while Chambers won’t rack up receptions, he could be a sneaky source for WR depth.

For those in extremely deep dynasty leagues, don’t be afraid to stash Nate Davis, who suddenly looks like the 49ers’ quarterback of the future. Alex Smith doesn’t just need a change of scenery. He may need a change in leagues entirely, as in the UFL.

It’s rare you find a player who led the NFL in touchdowns the previous season undervalued, but so is the case with DeAngelo Williams. I wasn’t all that high on Williams as recently as a month ago, mainly because of Jonathan Stewart’s presence. Stewart is a talented back who looked likely to take an even greater percentage of the carries in 2009, including plenty at the goal line. Additionally, it will be next to impossible for Carolina to sustain the kind of success on the ground the team had last season, when they became the first franchise in NFL history to have two running backs with at least 10 touchdowns and 800 yards rushing. Also, counting on anything close to another 20 scores from Williams would be dubious considering he had just 12 goal-line carries in 2008. Williams also isn’t very active in the passing game. However, Stewart’s lingering Achilles injury changes everything. It may very well prove minor, but it’s a problem that has cost Stewart essentially the entire preseason, including OTAs as well. It stems from a foot problem dating back to college, and unlike a sprained ankle, the Achilles can pop at any moment, so this is serious – his Week 1 status is in serious doubt. Williams’ success somewhat relies on both Jake Delhomme and Steve Smith staying healthy, but the offensive line is a terrific run-blocking unit. Williams also might be the second most talented running back in football, behind only Adrian Peterson. If Stewart’s injury proves serious, don’t be surprised if Williams finishes as the No. 1 fantasy back yet again in 2009.

Two of my favorite targets this year, who are by no means secrets, are Donald Brown and Felix Jones. Joseph Addai will surely get the veteran treatment in Indy, remaining the starter to open the year. But do you realize he’s surpassed 80 yards rushing in just one game since Week 9 of the 2007 season? Please think about that for a second. The guy averaged 3.5 YPC last season while playing for the Colts. Don’t be surprised when Addai heads to the locker room to change his tampon this year (not that I’m particularly tough. I still have a scar on my foot from wearing sandals for one day in Hawaii last February, but that’s neither here nor there). Anyway, Addai may be the safer pick, but we know what he can and, more importantly, can’t do, whereas Brown very well could be the real deal (he appears to be). And on that Colts offense with a healthy Peyton Manning, it’s not out of the realm of possibility Brown is a top-five pick in fantasy drafts next year. Jones doesn’t have quite the same upside since Marion Barber will dominate the goal-line carries, but there might not be a more explosive running back in the league. Dating back to his college days, Jones has gotten a respectable 7.8 YPC over his last 416 rushing attempts, and he’s certainly capable of becoming more involved in the passing game as well. Dallas’ offense is simply a different beast when he’s on the field. Jones remains an injury concern, but like Brown, he could be the type of pick who wins your fantasy league for you. I’d take either back before selecting a QB.

By Dalton Del Don

RISERS

Chris Wells – A lingering ankle injury had Wells’ ADP plummeting, but after a strong performance during his preseason debut Friday (seven carries, 46 yards, two touchdowns), he’s shooting back up draft boards. Durability concerns aren’t going away, but it’s abundantly clear who the Cardinals’ best running back is, so expect the rookie to get more than his fair share of carries, even if Tim Hightower starts the season atop the depth chart. Wells is raw as a receiver, but Arizona has an underrated run-blocking unit, and especially with Todd Haley gone, coach Ken Whisenhunt may elect to run more frequently in 2009.  The NFC West looks bad defensively, at least on paper.

Knowshon Moreno – Like Wells, an injury has prevented Moreno from claiming the starting running back job, although he was able to return to the practice field Tuesday for the first time since August 14, when he sprained his MCL. Moreno was sporting a non-contact jersey, but it qualifies as good news regardless. He’s unlikely to play in the Broncos’ preseason finale Thursday, but there’s a real possibility he’s back in action come the season opener. While Denver may have a lot of quantity when it comes to the RB position, there isn’t much quality after the rookie, so expect Moreno to get the majority of touches when he’s physically able. There’s quite a bit of upside here.

Matt Leinart – While there has been some chatter about Leinart having to battle even for the No. 2 QB job, he ended any doubts with a superb performance during the team’s third preseason game last week. Leinart went 24-for-38 for 360 yards (9.5 YPA) and three touchdowns (he also threw one pick) in essentially one half of football, and although it came against the Packers’ second and third stringers, it was impressive nevertheless. While Leinart was facing backups on defense, his touchdown recipients were Early Doucet, Onrea Jones and Jason Wright, so it’s not like Leinart had the benefit of Arizona’s best offensive weapons on his side either. Kurt Warner has somehow managed to start 31 straight games, but it’s worth noting last year marked the first time he played in 16 games during a season since 2001. He’s now 38 years old with a bad hip. Leinart is the rare “handcuff” at the QB position for Warner owners, and he’s also a good late round flier for any owner to stash away in deep leagues.

Jeremy Shockey – It’s come to the point where Shockey has burned so many owners in the past, he’s something of an afterthought. Sure, the injury worries remain, but once ten tight ends are off the board, there isn’t a later option with more upside. Shockey is entering year two under New Orleans’ system, so it’s safe to assume he’ll be more comfortable, highlighted by his strong preseason. He’s shown a nice rapport with Drew Brees, and there’s plenty of potential playing for a passing attack that ranked No. 1 in the league last year. Shockey won’t be asked to block nearly as much as he did when in New York, and there have never been any doubts about his receiving ability. He’s not exactly the safest option, but Shockey could easily be a top-five tight end in 2009.

Byron Leftwich – Coach Raheem Morris has named Leftwich Tampa Bay’s starting quarterback. Despite an uneven performance in Thursday’s game against Miami, Leftwich has outplayed Luke McCown throughout training camp. He’ll begin the season as the starter and likely gives the Bucs the best chance at winning now, but Tampa seems unlikely to stick with one passer for all 16 games. Rookie Josh Freeman is waiting in the wings and could see some starts later in the season, especially if the Buccaneers struggle. Leftwich will go undrafted in most fantasy leagues, but Tampa Bay has an underrated offensive line, and he’ll have Kellen Winslow and Antonio Bryant as weapons, so crazier things have happened than him eventually emerging as a viable option.

Laurent Robinson – After getting traded from Atlanta to St. Louis, Robinson looks like the Rams’ new No. 2 WR, thanks to a strong preseason. Robinson has racked up 10 receptions for 137 yards over three games, and while that’s not overwhelming, it’s come in limited action and with Marc Bulger (finger) sidelined. The return of Donnie Avery (foot) should help take away defenses attention as well. Robinson isn’t going to win your league for you, but he’s a former third-round pick entering his third year in the league, so he’s a sneaky addition for those in PPR formats.

Jermichael Finley – Finley has received nothing but glowing reviews all offseason, and it appears the hype was well warranted after he caught two touchdowns during Green Bay’s third preseason game. He’ll still battle Donald Lee, who is a superior blocker, for playing time, but Finley is a physical freak who won’t be easy to keep off the field, especially since he’s become a favorite target of Aaron Rodgers. The Packers have a plethora of options in the passing game, but Finley could be a major force in the red zone, and he has the skills to really make an impact.

FALLERS

Wes Welker – Welker is a good football player, but he’s currently getting drafted far too high in fantasy leagues. It’s a different story in PPR formats, obviously, but in standard leagues, Welker’s current ADP (31.68) is perplexing. It means he’s the 12th wide receiver off the board, which is too high for someone not used near the goal line. Remember, even when Tom Brady threw an NFL-record 50 touchdowns in 2007, it only resulted in eight scores for Welker. He’s averaged just 10.5 yards-per-catch over his two seasons in New England. Moreover, no one seems to care he’s been sitting out practice (and two of the three preseason games) with a mysterious injury, and while it may turn out to be nothing, the lack of disclosure from New England can be maddening. In fact, his status for Week 1 is now reportedly in question. Draft Chad Johnson or even Eddie Royal instead.

Daunte Culpepper – Culpepper, who took eight stitches in one of his toes after an incident at his home Saturday night, is still experiencing soreness in his foot as of Wednesday. Coach Jim Schwartz has left open the possibility that Culpepper could play in Thursday’s preseason finale against the Bills, but it’s looking increasingly unlikely. Matthew Stafford, meanwhile, got 8.1 YPA during the team’s last preseason game and now appears to be the favorite to start Week 1. Stafford has shown more willingness than Culpepper to go downfield, an area that’s especially important to Detroit’s offense with Calvin Johnson around. Culpepper picked a bad time to get hurt.

Matt Cassel – Cassel will reportedly miss 2-for-4 weeks after suffering a sprained MCL, but this is really more of a “hold” than a downgrade. There are conflicting reports of whether he’ll be ready for Week 1, but with a matchup in Baltimore, he wasn’t an option in fantasy leagues then anyway. Think more long-term, where Cassel is a nice option as a QB2 with good upside playing in Todd Haley’s offense. With what should be a terrible team defensively, Kansas City will be forced to throw frequently, and while Cassel is the odds on favorite to take the most sacks in the NFL this season, he could also put up some nice fantasy stats.

Bernard Berrian – Berrian remains out with a hamstring injury, which is a concern for any wideout, let alone one who relies primarily on his deep speed. Berrian had a better season than his numbers indicated last year, as he drew a ton of pass interference calls. However, this is still a WR who has never reached 1,000 yards receiving in any of his five years in the league. Moreover, with a now healthy Sidney Rice to go along with exciting rookie Percy Harvin, there are more mouths to feed in Minnesota. The addition of Brett Favre seems like a good thing for the speedy Berrian, but Favre’s vertical YPA was below average last season, and he’s once again shown an unwillingness to go downfield this preseason, even during his successful outing against the Texans. Contrary to popular belief, Favre is not a very good deep ball thrower, so let someone else draft Berrian.

Willie Parker – After recovering from back spasms earlier in August, Parker is now missing action with a hamstring injury, highlighting just how brittle the back is. Rashard Mendenhall hasn’t exactly dominated during his recent opportunity, but that doesn’t mean he won’t be given a big chunk of the carries come the regular season. Playing for Pittsburgh theoretically has its advantages, but the offensive line is actually shaky, and Parker doesn’t catch any passes and is a poor option at the goal line. Since he’s also a big injury risk, why even bother?

Cedric Benson – Benson remains atop the Bengals’ depth chart, and with a healthy return of Carson Palmer combined with a motivated Chad Johnson, Cincinnati’s offense could be one of the better units in the league, especially if Andre Smith can somehow upgrade the line. However, Benson has gotten just 73 yards rushing on 23 carries this preseason, good for a 3.17 YPC mark. It’s just the preseason, but don’t let two big games against terrible run defenses at the end of last season overshadow the rest of Benson’s hugely disappointing career. Draft Bernard Scott 10 rounds later instead.

LenDale White – White has an ADP of 70.71, which means he’s actually typically getting drafted in the sixth round of fantasy leagues, ahead of other running backs like Felix Jones and Donald Brown, which is positively staggering. Yes, White had 15 touchdowns last year and has cut back his Patron intake, but there’s too much risk playing someone entirely reliant on getting a goal-line carry, as he averaged just 48.3 rushing yards per game last year. He doesn’t catch the ball, and remember, despite getting over 100 carries more in 2007, he scored fewer than half the amount of times (seven) he did last season, as touchdowns are extremely unreliable year-to-year. When the Titans trailed last season, White was essentially worthless and rarely on the field, so any prospective owners better hope the team’s defense doesn’t take even a small step backward this year. Chris Johnson is easily Tennessee’s best offensive player, so he’s going to be on the field more during his second year in the league.