The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

I don’t want to overreact to one great start by John Smoltz that came in probably the easiest situation in baseball (against the Padres lineup in the best pitcher’s park in MLB), but it does highlight my previous stance about Boston being really premature in releasing him. The guy now has a 4.7:1 K:BB ratio! That would rank sixth best in all of baseball if he qualified. The quicker everyone stops evaluating pitchers based on ERA, the better baseball will be. On a related note, the Red Sox just released Brad Penny (5.61 ERA, 1.53 WHIP) and the immortal Junichi Tazawa currently sports a 6.65 ERA and 2.03 WHIP. But again, I’m not here to rehash the Smoltz issue regarding Boston. I’m here to once again question why Brian Sabean never even made a call about acquiring him. (Of course, I know the answer. He doesn’t “get it.”) But here’s an SF team right in the thick of the wild card race, with a No. 5 starter named Joe Martinez, who currently has a 7.52 ERA, 1.90 WHIP and a 17:9 K:BB ratio. Signing Smoltz cost St. Louis $100,000, which is dirt cheap in baseball terms. When the Cardinals make the playoffs and the Giants don’t, it won’t be because of luck. After all, we are talking about an SF organization that allowed its closer to throw 41 pitches in a game this week…And then had him throw 30 more pitches the next day.

Before the All-Star break, Manny Ramirez posted a 1.156 OPS with a 21:31 K:BB ratio. Since then, he’s posted a .797 OPS with a 36:17 K:BB ratio. The whole steroid issue is an easy explanation, but it’s worth noting he hit three homers with nine RBI over his first seven games after returning from suspension. After slugging one homer every 11 at-bats after joining the Dodgers last season, he’s hit just two homers over his past 119 at-bats. Ramirez is 37 years old, but in reality we are talking about a slump that has lasted about 120 at-bats. He’s obviously not as good as he was as a Dodger last year, but his recent struggles are almost certainly nothing to worry about, just a rough stretch over a small sample size. Don’t be surprised by a big finish.

Chris Davis was one of the bigger fantasy busts earlier this season, posting a .207/.262/.414 line. While few expected him to hit .285 like he did last season with such a high K rate, he always posted a very high BABIP in the minors, so .260 was possible. And he did hit 15 homers in just 77 games. Still, Davis fanned a whopping 116 times over 266 at-bats, which merited a trip to the minors. To put that K rate into perspective, Mark Reynolds, who set an MLB-record with 206 strikeouts last season, had a .62 contact rate while doing so. Davis’ contact rate is at .56 for 2009. Of course, Reynolds’ monstrous season this year gives hope for the future, and Davis did post a .327/.418/.521 line in Triple-A after getting sent down. Now back up with Texas, he’s looking at regular at-bats (at the expense of Hank Blalock) and is worth picking up in all but the deepest of leagues. Davis has the kind of power potential that could really make a difference over the final six weeks of the season.

Even after back-to-back losses, the Rockies are 52-24 since June 4. Their run differential over that time is a staggering +103. Make no mistake, this is a very good baseball team.

With a terrific 9.80 K/9 rate and a 3.51 ERA and 1.27 WHIP, not many would complain about Yovani Gallardo this season. He even sports a solid 1.14 G/F ratio. With a 3.66 xFIP, there’s nothing to suggest luck has been involved either, because while his BABIP (.281) has been a bit fortunate, he’s also suffered from a 13.4% HR/F rate. However, the real interesting aspect of Gallardo’s pitching this season has been his surprisingly high walk rate. His 4.38 BB/9 mark is easily a career-worst, and in fact, only three starting pitchers who qualify have a higher rate.  Discouragingly, his control is only getting worse as the season progresses, with a 4.91 BB/9 mark in August. The strikeouts suggest a future ace (if he’s not already one now), but it’s not often that you see one of the better pitchers in the game walk three batters or more in eight of his past 10 starts.

With Adam Dunn, Elijah Dukes and Lastings Milledge penciled in as starters, it’s hard to believe Josh Willingham has emerged with such a big season. Dunn has been his usual self (can he make it five straight years with exactly 40 homers? Here’s to hoping so), Dukes has been a massive disappointment, and as for Milledge, he’s once again playing terribly, but now for Pittsburgh. It’s obviously far too early to reach a verdict, but it’s worth noting Nyjer Morgan posted a .393 OBP for the Nationals before suffering a season-ending injury Monday. Oh, and he’s also been the best defensive outfielder in baseball this season. BY FAR (26.3 UZR/150. The second best is at 18.6). I’m just sayin. Back to Willingham, who had a crazy good game Tuesday (4-for-4 with two homers, a walk, four runs scored and six RBI) and is currently sporting a .985 OPS, which would rank fifth-best in the National League if he had enough at-bats. He’s hit one HR every 15.2 ABs this year, so even though Scott Olsen predictably failed in 2009, it’s hard not to consider Washington the clear winner in the Emilio Bonifacio deal.

Including this year, Dan Haren has had significantly worse ERAs after the All-Star break compared to before, but looking closer, it seems like a complete fluke, as he really hasn’t pitched any worse. To wit: in 2006, his ERA jumped from 3.52 before the break to 4.91 after. Yet his K:BB ratio actually improved from 3.6 before to 4.3 after. And his K rate increased from 6.9 K/9 to 7.4 K/9. In 2007, there was a similar result. His ERA went from 2.30 to 4.15, yet his K:BB went from 3.2 to 4.0. In 2008, his ERA jumped yet again, from 2.72 to 4.18, and his K:BB ratio went from 5.1 to 5.2. This year he’s seen an ERA increase from 2.01 to 4.59, and although his K:BB ratio has dropped from 8.1 to 4:1, the latter mark is still fantastic. At some point, some might consider this a trend, despite evidence pointing to the contrary. The biggest culprit has been the home run. His HR/9 marks over the past four years before the break look like this, respectively: 1.2, 0.77, 0.72, 0.83. Conversely, here are his HR/9 numbers after the break: 1.3, 1.3, 0.90, 1.8. His HR/F rates have been 14.3%, 11.1%, 9.0% and 11.7% over the past four seasons, so while he’s been about league average, for some reason, it appears he’s been experiencing good luck before the All-Star break and the opposite effect after. Bottom line, Haren is probably not as good a pitcher as he’s been during the first half of the last four years, but he’s most certainly a far better pitcher than his last four second halves have shown. He’s hardly someone to worry about trading come the All-Star break next season.

Brad Lidge was 2-0 and a perfect 48-for-48 during save opportunities last season. This year, he’s 0-6 and has nine blown saves, easily the most in baseball. While his strikeout numbers (9.26 K/9) remain excellent, it’s a significant drop from his career mark (12.5 K/9), which incidentally, is the best ever in the history of the sport. His control wasn’t any good last year (4.54 BB/9), but it’s been even worse in 2009 (5.40 BB/9). His average fastball velocity has dropped for the fourth straight year, but at 93.5 mph, the far bigger problem has been the loss of effectiveness of his slider. I can’t remember a team as good as the Phillies entering the postseason with such a shaky closing situation. Ryan Madson actually took a blown save during his last appearance (although he did get the win), but he’s clearly the superior pitcher at this point. Of course, that doesn’t necessarily mean he’s more valuable in the traditional closer’s role.

The Mets are currently in the midst of one of the weirdest seasons you’ll ever see. The injury list is absolutely absurd: Jose Reyes, Carlos Beltran, Carlos Delgado, David Wright, Johan Santana, J.J. Putz, Fernando Martinez, Jonathan Niese, John Maine, Oliver Perez. At some point, coincidence and bad luck have to take a backseat to a bigger problem, which is clearly the root here, especially when you consider the treatment of Reyes, Beltran and Santana, specifically. Entering June, Santana had an 11.2 K/9. Afterward, it was 5.4 K/9. The fact the team allowed him to make seven starts after knowing he was in pain during a lost season and with four years remaining on a $137.5 million deal is deplorable. (On a side note, remember when the majority ranked Santana ahead of Tim Lincecum entering the year? Funny stuff.) The injuries were the least of the Mets’ problems when it comes to a PR standpoint, from the Tony Bernazard fiasco, to the Omar Minaya/Adam Rubin mess, to Minaya not even remembering Santana had dealt with elbow problems in the spring, to Jerry Manuel recently referring to his current starting rotation as the “fabulous five,” (you see, the media loves him because he’s such a comedian), this year has been an absolute joke. The best part? Even after one of the most catastrophic season’s in the history of the sport, both on and off the field, the regime appears set to safely return in 2010. And like driving by a car accident, I won’t be able to help myself from watching the carnage.