The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Over his last four starts, Chad Billingsley has a 9.45 ERA with a 1.989 WHIP. He threw 200.2 innings last season and doesn’t rank among the top-10 in Baseball Prospectus’ pitcher abuse points in 2009, so it’s not like he should be wearing down. It’s probably just a blip on the radar and nothing to worry about, but improved control would be nice, as his 4.02 BB/9 mark is worse than last season. Teammate Clayton Kershaw’s 4.85 BB/9 mark actually ranks last in the league, but both pitchers remain successful because they are just so tough to hit. In fact, Kershaw’s .200 BAA is the second lowest in major league baseball. The fact Kershaw has a 2.76 ERA and 1.23 WHIP despite the worst walk rate in the game reveals huge upside moving forward. Kershaw should win a Cy Young someday and is easily one of the five most valuable pitching commodities in a keeper league.

Aramis Ramirez has blasted four homers with 10 RBI over his past six games, and he’s hitting .324/.400/.606 with an 8:8 K:BB ratio since coming off the disabled list. What happened to his supposed decrease in power with a still less than 100 percent shoulder that will likely require surgery after the season? Ramirez was reportedly unable to extend his arms, and even he admitted a drop in power was in store. Guess he was wrong.

Sticking with the Cubs, Alfonso Soriano is another interesting case. Normally I avoid using terms such as ”streaky,” but Soriano actually seems to legitimately qualify. He’s always been that way, at least to an extent, but he’s taken hot/cold a step further this season. He hit seven homers (with three steals) over the first 19 games of the year, and despite five home runs over a nine-game stretch in the middle of May, Soriano proceeded to bat  .192 over 234 at-bats after his hot start. Soriano has since blasted five homers with 15 RBI over his past 12 games, raising his OPS more than 55 points during that span. He’s really struggled with off-speed stuff this season, but it looks like he’s finally starting to turn it around.

It was nice to see Johan Santana record eight strikeouts over seven shutout innings Thursday, as his K rate had plummeted of late. In fact, since May ended, his K/9 mark was a paltry 4.78. Thursday marked the first time Santana had fanned more than five batters in a game in 11 starts. Fun fact: Before Thursday’s outing, Santana had recorded the second most strikeouts with a changeup this season (h/t Buster Olney) with 57. Tim Lincecum leads with a whopping 97. That’s 40 more than any other pitcher in baseball with what is considered The Freak’s third best pitch!

Glad to see Hong-Chih Kuo back pitching. His arm could give with any pitch, but it’s not a stretch to call him one of the best relievers in baseball when healthy. One of my favorite stats last season was Kuo versus lefties: 44:2 K:BB ratio over 26.0 innings.

Luke Hochevar was hit hard Thursday, allowing seven runs over six innings against the Orioles. However, with a 31:2 K:BB ratio over his last four starts, spanning 25.1 innings, the former No. 1 overall pick needs to be taken seriously. With a new emphasis on his slider, any pitcher capable of recording 22 strikeouts with zero walks over back-to-back starts belongs firmly on the radar. The Royals clearly erred taking Hochevar ahead of Evan Longoria, Clayton Kershaw and Tim Lincecum, but the team hardly whiffed like the Rockies, who selected Greg Reynolds with the second pick.

Since returning from the disabled list, Josh Hamilton has a .597 OPS with a 22:4 K:BB ratio over 71 at-bats. He doesn’t have a multi-hit game over his past 10 contests, but more disturbing is his .268 slugging percentage. I traded for him in one league, and there’s no reason to give up on his immense upside, but clearly Hamilton is far from 100 percent. He claims he’s “healthy enough to play,” which basically means he’s hurting. I underestimated the hernia problem.

Taking a momentary break away from baseball, while watching NFL Live on ESPN the other day, this quote absolutely killed me: “Losing (Shawne) Merriman hurt them (San Diego) last year, especially defensively.” Ladies and gentlemen, Herm Edwards!

This is old news by now, but I still can’t believe what Omar Minaya did to Adam Rubin. Truly despicable. “The Bride” from “Kill Bill” thinks that was too vengeful. I can’t imagine Minaya having a job entering 2010.

Even with the return of a hot Howie Kendrick, Maicer Izturis has been a sneaky middle infield play for some time now. He’s followed up a .983 OPS in June by hitting .316 with two homers and two steals over 11 games in July. Despite hitting worse against southpaws during every season in his career, Izturis has raked against lefties in 2009, posting a 1.063 OPS compared to just .722 against right-handers. The small sample size reveals a fluke, but it’s at least something to note for those in deeper daily leagues.

Since a terrible April, Ubaldo Jimenez has recorded a sparkling 1.16 WHIP over 116.2 innings, despite calling Coors Field home. His control still needs plenty of work even though it’s improving, but Jimenez’s 1.72 G/F rate is fantastic. It looks like he could someday become the first Rockies’ starter to ever finish a season with an ERA below 3.50 (that is if Jason Marquis doesn’t do so this year).

With three homers and 13 RBI over his last five games, Jhonny Peralta’s bat is finally coming alive. In fact, he’s hit more long balls (five) over the previous 20 games than he had over the season’s first 72 games (four homers). Peralta’s .250/.320/.317 (one HR) line at home seems like a fluke, considering Progressive Field typically plays neutral. Peralta will never be an above average player in real baseball, but he can be plenty helpful in fantasy leagues at the shortstop position over the rest of the year.

Jarrod Washburn has easily been one of the biggest surprises in 2009, as he sports a 2.64 ERA and an elite 1.07 WHIP. His current .249 BABIP is the lowest in all of baseball, so some regression is inevitable. However, as a flyball pitcher, his career BABIP is .282, and Seattle’s terrific outfield defense is a legitimate reason for Washburn’s success this year. So while the BABIP is due to increase, it won’t necessarily be drastic. Which brings up the trade rumors, as a move to another AL team (the Yankees) would almost certainly be disastrous to his fantasy value. A move to the National League sounds great, but the downgrade in OF defense could negate that. Either way, Washburn is pitching better now than at any point since 2002, and the main reason to try to sell him would be the worry of getting shipped to a different AL team.

Rafael Furcal has posted a .347/.404/.510 line in July, so maybe he’s actually going to be an asset over the rest of the season. He only has one steal since the All-Star break, and his success rate (6-for-10) has been a massive disappointment this year. Even if his batting average bounces back, with modest power, Furcal can only be so valuable in fantasy formats if he’s not running like he used to. After stealing 83 bases over the 2005 and 2006 seasons, Furcal has recorded just 39 stolen bases over his last 1,222 plate appearances.