The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Two weeks ago, I recommended targeting Alex Rodriguez in trades but also acknowledged that his hip injury made it a risky proposition. I didn’t really follow my own advice, failing to land him in two half-hearted trade offers, mainly because I kept reading about how scouts said he looked terrible and was clearly not his former self. Well, after five homers, 17 RBI and batting .370 over the next 14 games, I’m over listening to scouts. I’ve never tried to base my opinion on a player watching MLB Extra Innings, instead going off just the numbers, and while I understand scouts are important in some aspects, how many times did we hear Carlos Delgado had lost all his bat speed last year before he posted a .991 OPS after the break? It’s just noise, and I’m finished listening to it.

He may be winless over his last two starts, but Homer Bailey has recorded a 2.70 ERA, 0.90 WHIP and an 11:2 K:BB ratio over 13.1 innings. In fact, those numbers would look even better if Cincinnati’s relievers didn’t allow both inherited runners to score from first and second during Bailey’s second start since getting recalled from the minors. His overall numbers still look ugly, but it’s nice to finally see some success at the big league level. Bailey’s average fastball velocity (93.5 mph) ranks in the top-20 among all starters in baseball. Even though he’s disappointed so many times before, I’m still a believer. The improved control is huge.

Travis Hafner’s shoulder remains a concern, and he’s slumped so far during July, but Pronk’s .951 OPS is his highest since 2006. He’s hit a home run every 13.8 at-bats, so the power has returned. Also, once his .229 BA with RISP normalizes, expect more RBI going forward. Hafner is hardly a safe option, but it looks like he can once again be an effective player if he can stay on the field.

Luke Scott has been one of the bigger surprises of 2009. His .975 OPS would rank fourth best in the American League if he qualified. With 17 homers and 50 RBI over just 224 ABs, that kind of production would result in 46 long balls and 134 RBI over a 600 at-bat campaign. And with the way Scott has hit southpaws this season (.328/.392/.716), there’s no reason for him not to be an everyday player for once. Of course, he’s playing over his head this year, but with a .871 career OPS, a huge crash isn’t inevitable for the 31-year-old. Scott is going to be involved in a lot of fantasy championships in 2009.

For me, there hasn’t been a more frustrating player this season than Manny Parra, who ruins No. 2 starter stuff with horrendous control. His trip to the minors was more than warranted after getting abused for 32 runs over a five-start stretch that spanned just 21.1 innings. A 2.92 ERA over four Triple-A outings was nice, but that was accompanied by 13 walks over 24.2 innings, so it’s safe to question whether he truly deserved getting recalled by Milwaukee. Nevertheless, the Brewers badly needed a starter, and Parra made the most of it Thursday, dominating the Cardinals over seven shutout innings. Most impressive was just one base on balls, marking the first time he didn’t walk multiple batters in a start all season. I remain skeptical, and one good start hardly erases just how awful Parra was earlier this season, but he’s worth stashing in deep leagues in case he finally “gets it.” He has a .368 BABIP and a 14.1% HR/F rate while sporting a strong 1.51 G/F ratio, so some good fortune could be coming his way. One other aspect worth noting is that Parra threw some split-finger fastballs during his start Thursday, something the Brewers had previously forbid him from doing in fear of injury. Exactly like Homer Bailey has done, with their respective careers on the line (and the franchises likely fed up), that pitch is now being utilized, which could result in injury. Or finally stardom. Both pitchers are too good to be this bad.

No one is more aggressive with younger players while avoiding the elderly in fantasy football than me (LaDainian Tomlinson will be on zero of my teams this year), but the opposite approach is often wiser in baseball. It’s always more rewarding to peg the younger guy the year he breaks out, but the fact remains pitchers simply must go through growing pains. And for every Ryan Braun, there are many, many more prospects who fail during their first try. Targeting older, boring players like Paul Konerko usually offer better value, and baseball’s cliff is often at least 40 years old. And after David Ortiz’s huge June, remember not to write off aging sluggers so quickly in the future.

Everyone else is doing it, making me jealous, so here are my first half awards:

N.L. MVP – Albert Pujols (runner-up: Prince Fielder)

A.L. MVP – Joe Mauer (runner-up: Zack Greinke)

N.L. Cy Young – Dan Haren (runner-up: Tim Lincecum)

A.L. Cy Young – Zack Greinke (runner-up: Roy Halladay)

N.L. ROY – Colby Rasmus (runner-up: Randy Wells)

A.L. ROY – Ricky Romero (runner-up: Brett Gardner)

Fun facts: According to Baseball Prospectus, Gil Meche has easily been the most “abused” pitcher in baseball…Last season, Bengie Molina tied for the major league lead with 11 sacrifice flies. He leads the majors again this year with 10 already…Ryan Zimmerman has grounded into the most double plays (16) in all of baseball…Kelly Shoppach, who has just 151 at-bats on the year, easily paces the league by getting hit by a pitch 14 times.


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4 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    On the TV gun, it really seems like Bailey is hitting 95-96 from the first pitch to his last. His Curve and split, when he can locate them, are nasty as well. I am all in.

    Cmon, we both know that Beckett wins the AL cy young at the end of the year. Grienke might already be falling off, and halladay is a trade candidate. Yeah, I know this is first half awards, but I had to say it.

    By the way, anyone who had Ladanian on their team last year was nuts, not to mention this year.

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    You know I’m a huge Beckett guy. Agree about Bailey and LT2.

  3. I am Jack's fantasy baseball team Avatar
    I am Jack’s fantasy baseball team

    I stopped listening to ‘scouts’ a long time ago. Since I am the owner/GM of my teams, I go with my gut and always try to back that up with watching any player I am targeting in trades. Extra Innings is great tool for that, but so is the WorldWideInterWeb. I am always surprised how few owners/GMs do this and how often I hear someone say ‘I have never seen him play’ during trade talks. To me, watching is an essential key to fantasy. But that’s just me.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    While I agree to an extent, it’s important not to overrate whatever sample size you happen to catch. Billy Beane apparently rarely watches the A’s, b/c he doesn’t want to cloud his judgment by seeing a batter struggle (or succeed) in some real important situation – the numbers will point out if he’s “clutch” or not. But I do agree it’s also beneficial to actually watch. I thought Nolasco was for real only after seeing him pitch last year.

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