The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

After throwing the most pitches (3,914) in all of baseball last year, I avoided Cole Hamels at the draft table in 2009. And while I’m still concerned with his health moving forward, he’s actually a pretty good trade target right now, especially for teams lower in the standings trying to swing for the fences. He currently sports a 4.98 ERA and 1.47 WHIP, which makes zero sense combined with an elite 4.3:1 K:BB ratio. Looking at his pitch types, he’s throwing his fastball a bit more this season and his curveball less, but his velocity is pretty much the same (90.0 mph compared to 90.4 mph last year), and he claims he feels perfectly fine physically. Actually, his control has improved this season compared to last (1.91 BB/9 versus 2.10) as well as his K rate (8.15 K/9 versus 7.76), and his G/F ratio is a career-best (1.27). With a .371 BABIP (career-mark is .284), a .684 strand rate and a 13.3% HR/F ratio, few pitchers have been unluckier this season. In fact, Hamels’ xFIP (3.38) is the ninth best in MLB, so it’s safe to expect a terrific second half of the season, assuming last year’s workload doesn’t prevent it.

Carl Crawford has been nothing short of fantastic this season, and he’s likely on plenty of fantasy teams leading their league. But I don’t see a big difference in value between him and Jacoby Ellsbury moving forward. Crawford possesses more power, but his career-high in homers is just 18, and he’s only surpassed 11 bombs twice during his career (although he’s almost certain to do so this year). And it’s not as great of a difference as one would think, as Crawford has hit a home run once every 52.6 at-bats throughout his career, while Ellsbury has done so once every 60.5 ABs. Ellsbury already has better plate discipline (20:29 K:BB compared to 26:52), and while Crawford currently holds the advantage in RBI and runs scored, with Ellsbury hitting in Boston’s lineup and Fenway Park, that gap should narrow in the future. After all, Crawford’s career OPS is .770, and Ellsbury’s is .758. I’m not trying to take anything away from Crawford, who has returned to the fantasy elite this year, it’s just that Ellsbury isn’t far behind, and given the choice between the two of who will steal more bases over the rest of the season, my money is on Ellsbury. Of course, I’d happily take B.J. Upton over both of them.

Over his last five starts, Jordan Zimmermann has a 2.12 ERA, 1.01 WHIP and 28:7 K:BB ratio. He has just three wins with a 4.52 ERA on the season, but this rookie has an even better K rate (8.92/9) than Zack Greinke, and his average fastball velocity (93.3 mph) ranks 14^th best in baseball. Zimmermann also keeps the ball on the ground (1.18 G/F), and while wins could be elusive pitching for the Nationals, if he qualified, his xFIP (3.35) would be better than pitchers such as Josh Johnson, Felix Hernandez, Yovani Gallardo and Chad Billingsley. It really wouldn’t be too big of a stretch to call Zimmermann a top-30 fantasy starter right now.

If you prorate Joey Votto’s numbers over 162 games, here’s what pace he’s on this season: .366 BA, 30 homers, 134 RBI, 93 runs scored and seven steals, which means he’ll have to be considered during the second round of drafts in 2010. Of course, his .402 BABIP reveals an inevitable decline in average, but this is a 25-year-old who posted a .959 OPS after the All-Star break last season and has recorded a sick 15:20 K:BB ratio over his past 28 games. Votto is actually hitting left-handers better than righties this season, and he plays in a home park that has been the third most conducive to home runs in all of baseball this year. I’d prefer Votto to Adrian Gonzalez or Ryan Howard over the rest of this season.

Jair Jurrjens posted a 1.72 ERA and 1.24 WHIP during June despite an ugly 16:14 K:BB ratio over 31.1 innings, making him a sell-high candidate at the time. While those peripherals suggested a major crash was in store, he’s followed that up with ERAs of 3.38 and 3.68 during May and June, respectively, and a funny thing happened along the way – he started pitching much better. In May he posted a 2.7:1 K:BB ratio, and over his last 41.1 innings, he’s tallied a strong 8.49 K/9 mark (and nearly half those starts came against the Red Sox and Phillies), so superior pitching has negated the supposed regression. It’s just something to note – just because a pitcher has been lucky, doesn’t mean he can’t improve in other areas to avoid an inevitable collapse (Matt Cain is another good example here).

Over his last 28 games, Juan Rivera has 10 homers and 29 RBI. He’s done the majority of his damage against left-handers, posting a massive .407/.478/.814 line with six of his 14 homers versus southpaws over just 59 at-bats, but the stats count all the same. Finally given a chance as a full-time player, he’s taking full advantage of the opportunity, and of all American League hitters who have slugged .515 (like he has) or better this season, he’s struck out the fewest amount of times (26) by a wide margin. In fact, the next closest (Victor Martinez) has fanned 15 more times. Rivera is proving to be a steal in fantasy leagues.

For someone with an 8.64 ERA over his last three starts, the window to sell Jered Weaver high has probably passed, and while a complete collapse is hardly in store, further regression should be expected. Through 90.2 innings this season, he had a 2.08 ERA – this despite worse control and a decreased K rate compared to last year, and since 2007, his G/F ratio is going in the wrong direction (0.73, 0.68, 0.59). A low BABIP (.262), high strand rate (.764) and fortunate HR/F rate (8.8%) has had just as much to do with Weaver’s 2009 breakout as any tangible improvement in pitching ability. Don’t get me wrong, he’s solid, but just realize his xFIP (4.58) ranks 65^th among all starters.

Fun fact: Including this year, over the past eight seasons, the pitcher who has faced the toughest schedule (aggregate OPS) has been in the AL East seven times: A.J. Burnett .781 (2009), Matt Garza .767 (2008), Roy Halladay .775 (2007), Josh Beckett .784 (2006), Zack Greinke .767 (2005), Rodrigo Lopez .785 (2004), Victor Zambrano .781 (2003) and Tanyon Sturtze .767 (2002).