By Dalton Del Don
With just six wins on the season and playing for a last place team, Dan Haren is getting a little overlooked, as he’s quietly become one of the three best pitchers in baseball since coming to Arizona. His 7.38:1 K/BB ratio ranks best in MLB, and his mediocre record obviously can’t be held against him, since his run support (4.72) ranks 106th among qualified starters, and his bullpen has done him no favors either. Haren has held opponents to a collective .539 OPS, which is a full 50 points lower than the second best mark (Josh Johnson). He’s been fortunate with his hit rate and LOB%, but considering his home park currently ranks second only to Coors Field in boosting run scoring according to Park Factors, Haren’s performance is all that more impressive. Arizona’s defense also ranks in the bottom-10 in efficiency, so it’s not like he’s been getting a ton of help with the gloves behind him either. The guy’s WHIP is 0.82! He was No. 2 on my NL Cy Young ballot last season, but he’s currently atop my list so far in 2009.
Russell Martin has yet to homer this season, and while his stolen bases haven’t made him a total waste, it’s safe to question how much he’s been overworked behind the plate throughout his young career. His OPS dropped 122 points after the break last year, and he’s caught 351 games out of a possible 391 since 2007. His 2009 has been even more frustrating if you read the offseason stories about his rigorous workout routine during winter. Dating back to last year and through spring training this season, Martin has hit one home run over his past 535 at-bats.
Speaking of power outages, Jhonny Peralta has been one of the bigger disappointments so far this year, with just two homers on the season. His on-base percentage is an identical .331 as 2008, but his slugging has dropped from .473 to a miniscule .338. He’s certainly been unlucky with a 4.7% HR/F ratio, but that’s to be expected when you are nearly halfway through the season with two homers. While that rate has been 14.0% and 13.7% over the past two seasons, respectively, the optimism of a correction there is outweighed by a huge increase in groundballs (57.0%) this season, as he’s putting fewer balls in the air than at any time in his career. After finishing with 104 runs scored and 89 RBI in 2008, he’s on pace to end this season with 45 runs and 62 ribbies.
With two wins and a modest 4.30 ERA, Koji Uehara’s debut in the states has hardly overwhelmed, but he actually makes for a decent short-term add with upcoming starts against the Marlins and Nationals. His 3.83:1 K:BB ratio is quite impressive, and with a 1.25 WHIP, Uehara has more than held his own, despite pitching in the tough AL East. He does need to start inducing more groundballs, however, as his current GB% (29.4) is pretty atrocious.
Jayson Werth is on pace to finish the year with 30 homers, 25 steals, 110 runs scored and 88 RBI, and that’s without him really playing up to his potential yet. He’s been injury-prone in the past, but this is possibly the best defensive outfielder in baseball who has been successful on 89% of his stolen base attempts throughout his career. Werth has finally been given a chance to be an everyday player, bats in a good hitter’s park and is a right-hander situated in the middle of a fantastic lineup loaded with lefties. I can’t think of a better under-the-radar 30/30 threat.
Rich Harden remains one of the bigger injury risks in the game, has seen his average fastball velocity drop for the second straight season and has now become an exclusive two-pitch pitcher – he throws his fastball 67.7% and his changeup 32.3% of the time. As recently as 2006, he threw a changeup with just 5.7% frequency, while featuring a split-finger and slider (31% combined) far more often. He was also extremely fortunate after joining the Cubs last season, with a .229 BABIP and .873 strand rate. Moreover, his current 4.17 BB/9 mark would rank in the bottom-10 among starters if he qualified. I note all the negatives to Harden owners because he’s toward the top of my current target list, as there’s still plenty to like. His K rate (11.23/9) easily leads all of baseball, and his ERA sits at 4.53 largely because of a ridiculously high 20.3% HR/F ratio. Harden has typically been around league average in that area throughout his career, so when (a lot) more of those flyballs start finding gloves opposed to going over the fence, a precipitous drop in ERA will follow. Trading for Harden admittedly comes with plenty of risk, but he’s one of the rare pitchers who could be a true monster from here on out, so go get him.
After a 4-for-4 night Thursday, Chris Young has two homers and three steals over his past seven games, so while his overall numbers remain suppressed, the opportunity to truly “buy-low” has all but past. He’ll never be a batting average asset, but there’s real power/speed upside, and since Conor Jackson appears closer to death than returning to the field combined with Young preventing a bunch of runs with strong play in center field, his spot in the lineup is secure. Of course, he ended up leaving Thursday’s game with a leg injury, so that situation needs to be monitored.
I remain skeptical, but at least keeper-leaguers can take solace in the fact Homer Bailey has posted a 30:5 K:BB ratio over his past four starts (31.1 innings). He’d hardly be the first pitcher to develop (far) later than expected (see: Jackson, Edwin). Sticking with the minors, free Clay Buchholz! He has a 1.90 ERA with 65 punchouts over 71.0 innings in Triple-A this season, with a strong 1.35 GO/AO ratio to boot. Sure, Boston needs to find a spot for John Smoltz in the rotation right now, but why must we pretend Tim Wakefield (47:35 K:BB ratio) and Brad Penny (5.96 K/9, 1.96:1 K:BB ratio) are anything less than unacceptable for a team with World Series aspirations like the Red Sox?
Leave a Reply