The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

David Wright is having quite an interesting season. He has just three home runs, putting him on pace for nine for the year, and his .492 slugging percentage is easily a career-low. Just 5.6% of his flyballs have gone over the fence, and when you compare that to 16.9% in 2007 and 17.4% in 2008, it’s clear he’s been rather unlucky there. However, Wright has hit a whopping .357 with RISP, so his RBI numbers can actually be considered fortunate. And despite a 63% success rate, he’s already swiped 14 bags, offsetting the lack of long balls. He’s also striking out at an alarming rate (.73 contact rate career-worst by a wide margin), and his .457 BABIP easily leads baseball. So while his HR totals will no doubt jump up, and his activity on the base paths has been a nice surprise, Wright has been pretty lucky so far in 2009.

Daisuke Matsuzaka is off to a different start this season compared to last year, when he posted a 2.90 ERA despite a 1.6:1 K:BB ratio. In 2009, he has a 7.33 ERA with a 2.2:1 K:BB ratio. His sample size is still quite small, obviously, but with such poor command, there’s always been a worry of what would happen if he became more hittable (.267 BABIP last season). His K rate remains strong, so exercise patience, but don’t be surprised if 2008 goes down as his career-year.

With a three-run homer Sunday, Alexei Ramirez’s price tag is climbing, and the window to buy-low is closing. He entered Sunday with a .607 OPS and as one of the bigger fantasy disappointments in 2009, but his walk rate is up, and his strikeouts are down. Moreover, he’s made drastic improvements as a base stealer, going 9-for-11 after being caught on nine of his 22 attempts in 2008. Ramirez has just a .264 BABIP, and despite playing in one of the most homer-friendly home parks in baseball, just 4.8% of his flyballs have gone yard. He’ll never be a big OBP guy, but he’s dramatically improved his defense, and this is a middle infielder who hit 14 homers with 48 RBI over just 249 at-bats after the break last season. Ramirez could be a major difference maker from here on out.

I’m seeing FIP referenced more and more, and that’s a good thing, as it’s certainly a better stat than ERA. However, xFIP is much, much better, as it normalizes the home run component.

I wouldn’t be too down on Tommy Hanson’s debut, as he was perfect through three innings and finished with a 1.17 WHIP. Three homers will hurt any end line, and Ryan Braun deserves a lot of credit. With a 5:1 K:BB ratio, Hanson more than held his own, and while inconsistency comes with all rookie hurlers, future success is imminent.

Over his last five games, Ian Stewart is batting .545 with four home runs, nine runs scored and 12 RBI. He strikes out too often, and his BA still sits at .231, but that’s accompanied by an .861 OPS, and Stewart has hit one HR per 12.2 at-bats. Even better, he’s posted a .990 OPS on the road, with just a .120/.279/.380 line at  home, so there’s plenty of upside once he starts taking advantage of Coors Field. Most importantly, with Garret Atkins forgetting how to hit and a new manager in town, it looks like Stewart is going to be a regular, and since he’s 2B eligible in most leagues, he’s extremely valuable.