The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Chris Carpenter remains a huge injury risk, but it’s clear he’s back to being one of the game’s best pitchers when on the mound. Chances are he eventually gives up a run this season, but Monday’s start against the Brewers was one of the most dominant performances of 2009. Despite the shaky status of his arm, Carpenter is throwing harder than ever, as his current average fastball velocity (92.3 mph) is the highest of his career. Moreover, no NL pitcher has thrown a harder slider (87.8 mph average) this year, with only Justin Verlander (88.9 mph) besting him. Carpenter is filthy, and while not on the DL, he will likely continue to pitch like a top-10, if not top-five, fantasy starter.

While Jason Bay has been a very good, not great, player throughout his career, he’s performed like a superstar in 2009, posting a 1.018 OPS with good plate discipline. He’s hitting just as well on the road as at home, so the terrific start isn’t just a product of Fenway Park. Dating back to 2005, he’s been successful on 51 of his 55 SB attempts, which is a remarkable 93% rate. His defense is pretty terrible, but fantasy owners don’t care, and while he’s playing a bit over his head right now, only an injury will prevent a career-high in RBI, as only one AL batter (Vernon Wells) has come to the plate with more runners on base this season.

Tim Lincecum has seen a dip in velocity this season, and while that’s concerning after Bruce Bochy abused him so badly last year, the results remain strong, so hopefully it’s nothing to worry about long-term. In fact, he’s actually pitched better this season than during last year’s Cy Young campaign, with improved command (2.62 BB/9) and an even greater K rate (11.57 K/9). Lincecum has been unlucky, with the highest BABIP (.367) in the National League. However, he’s also been fortunate, evidenced by his 2.3% HR/F rate. He’s done an excellent job limiting homers throughout his short career, but that number is sure to increase. Still, his xFIP (2.68) is the best in baseball and suggests his ERA should continue to decrease.

It looks like Gary Sheffield isn’t finished, after all. Injuries have opened the door for regular playing time, and he’s rewarded the Mets by slugging three homers with 11 RBI over the past six games. Impressively, he’s also walked (22) more than he’s fanned (15), and with all the health problems in New York, Sheffield could be fixture in the middle of the lineup for quite some time. He obviously remains a liability with his glove, and at age 40, he’s an even greater injury risk than in the past, but it’s clear last season’s struggles had more to do with health than a sign of demise. Hitting behind David Wright and his .446 OBP has its perks as well.

After surrendering seven runs over one inning Monday, you don’t need me to tell you to worry about Ervin Santana. Unfortunately, that performance can’t be thrown out as an isolated incident in an otherwise long season, as Santana’s average fastball velocity has decreased from 94.4 mph in 2008 to 90.7 mph this year, which is significant and a big red flag. It’s unclear how long he’ll be able to pitch with his damaged arm, but at this point, it looks like it will affect Santana’s ability even if he’s able to remain on the mound. It’s not like fantasy owners can try to trade him right now, so benching him is probably the best method. Hope for a solid start against the Mariners on Sunday, and then see if you can get anything in return before the inevitable Tommy John surgery.

After a near perfect game Monday, Clay Buchholz is sporting a 1.30 ERA with 49 strikeouts over 48.1 innings. He also possesses an impressive 1.59 GO/AO ratio. Meanwhile, the Red Sox are reportedly in “no hurry” to trade Brad Penny and may soon have John Smoltz ready to join the rotation. I understand the theory of never having too much pitching, and it’s not like the Red Sox need to make changes sitting in first place, but Buchholz can’t waste away in the minors for much longer, and trade suitors should be lining up if a deal is the only way of getting him into a major league rotation. With David Ortiz’s performance, Boston could certainly use one more potent bat as well.

Remember all the puff pieces in spring training about Jeff Francoeur’s new approach at the plate? Those authors sure hope you don’t, because he’s looked worse than ever in 2009, sporting a .629 OPS. His name has recently been brought up in trade rumors, but it’s doubtful the Braves could get much in return with his trajectory going in the wrong direction. Francoeur has a 17:1 K:BB ratio during May, and his power has all but disappeared. The Braves’ outfield is holding back an otherwise good team.

I really like Wandy Rodriguez, but few pitchers have been more fortunate so far. For one, his miniscule 1.5% HR/F rate is the lowest in the NL, so surely he’ll start giving up more homers. Also, a retroactive scoring change made five runs unearned during his last start Monday, which was huge. Still, any pitcher with a 1.71 ERA has likely been “lucky” one way or the other, and I wouldn’t necessarily be shopping the talented lefty, as his breakout looks legitimate, especially since it appears he’s finally solved his troubles on the road.

I really don’t know what to make of B.J. Upton, who continues to disappoint in the power department. After hitting 24 homers as a 22-year-old over 474 at-bats in 2007, he hit just nine long balls last season. Still, he followed that up by going yard seven times in just 66 at-bats in the postseason, and a shoulder injury could explain the regular season output. He’s obviously been slow to recover from offseason surgery, and Upton still possesses about as much fantasy upside as anyone in the game, but a .283 slugging percentage is unacceptable. He’s helped offset the lack of power by stealing 14 bases, and it’s encouraging his success rate has climbed, and his current BABIP (.270) is nearly 100 points below his career mark (.359), so his BA is bound to improve soon enough. Still, is he a 10-homer guy or a 30-homer one?

Dusty Baker is at it again, as he brought back Aaron Harang to pitch the fifth inning Monday after a lengthy 123-minute rain delay. The decision is especially curious after a four-inning relief appearance, followed by a start on three days’ rest, essentially ruined his 2008 season. Hope Monday’s “win” was worth it.

Mike Jacobs has always had pretty extreme splits, but it’s gotten ridiculous this year. He has a .576 OPS versus southpaws and a .959 OPS against right-handers – nearly a 400-point difference. This makes Jacobs’ fantasy value entirely dependent on format, as he’s basically a negative in mixed weekly leagues, whereas he’s got plenty of value in daily ones.

Over his last two starts, Max Scherzer has posted a 20:2 K:BB ratio over 13.0 innings, revealing his high ceiling. He’s still too inefficient to pitch deep into games and remains an injury risk, but not many pitchers can flash that strikeout rate while inducing so many groundballs (1.31 G/F), which is the type of combo that leads to staff aces. More wins are sure to follow.

Quietly, Andruw Jones has posted a .992 OPS this season, with more walks (18) than strikeouts (16). It’s a small sample size with 73 at-bats, and his production has been solely Arlington aided (1.171 OPS at home, .728 on the road). Still, after hitting .205 over the past two seasons, it’s surprising to see some life back in his bat. He’s not all that valuable in fantasy circles as a part-time player, but there isn’t any good reason he shouldn’t start getting more action at Marlon Byrd’s expense.

Alexei Ramirez has really taken to batting second, and he’s raised his OPS more than 100 points over the past 10 games. His overall numbers still look ugly, but the opportunity to buy-low has probably passed, and there are signs of big things to come. After posting a 61:18 K:BB ratio last season, he’s at 18:12 this year in 330 fewer at-bats. Moreover, after getting caught on nine of his 22 stolen base attempts in 2008, he’s been successful on nine of his 10 tries this year. His raw power should resurface soon, and U.S. Cellular Field ranked as the second-best home run venue according to Park Factors last season.

James Loney is on pace to finish the year with 122 RBI. With a .380 slugging percentage…Ichiro Suzuki has more intentional base on balls (five) than regular walks (three)…Nick Johnson leads baseball in line-drive percentage (31.2), while Derrek Lee ranks dead last (11.7%)…Brad Hawpe leads the majors with a .474 batting average with RISP, while Troy Tulowitzki brings up the rear at .079…Bengie Molina has swung at an unfathomable 49.5% of pitches outside the strike zone in 2009, easily the most in baseball. Pablo Sandoval is second (46.6%), so the Giants must really be preaching patience at the plate this year…For those of you in NL-only leagues, take a look at Padres middle reliever Edward “the last of the Mujicans.” Over his last 5.0 innings, he has an 11:1 K:BB ratio, and he’s impressed all season. It seems the Padres always unearth a dominant middle relief performance from an unknown every year, and it looks like Mujica is that guy in 2009.


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21 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Hey, wow, good to have you back.

    Don’t even talk to me about Loney, that guy is a slap-artist clown. His RBI total is simply a function of his moronic manager giving him a prime lineup position in one of the majors’ best units. I loved his golden sombrero in the cleanup spot today against Lilly while Kemp, batting two spots behind the immortal Casey Blake, scored the Dodgers’ only run on a homer straight into the wind. I wonder if Torre realizes this guy (Loney) has a sub-.290 OBP against lefthanders. Probably not, considering he’s a certifiable dunce. “Numbers, kid, don’t give me numbers, the game is about heart and respect. And vets.” God I hate that guy. I know it’s heresy to some but I would take Clint Hurdle, dumb as he was, over Torre any day of the week and twice on Sunday. And I know I’m not the only one here who sees the inevitable Kemp/Pierre platoon coming a mile away, right? What an embarrassment.

    Love to hear that about Ramirez–I may have just slid in under the wire, b/c I just dealt Cain and Delmon Young (who I am just sick of and was about to dump anyway for some two-start flavor of the week) for Ramirez to replace the living god, Bartlett, at least for a week or two, and also specifically as a bulwark against Torre’s forthcoming platoon stupidity as once Bartlett’s back I can play Ramirez at the util and just sit Kemp as I plant my face into my palm and weep for the game.

  2. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Also….those numbers with Molina and Sandoval are bringing back the memories….I know you know what I’m going to say….”brain dead Caribbean hitters, hacking at slop nightly”. Ahhh, good times, good times. They say genius is seldom understood in its own time.

  3. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    And this Buchholz-Gamel trade just has to happen. For chrissakes, Melvin, get on the horn before Amaro does!!! Please, for the love of god!

  4. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Finally–sorry to monopolize this early discussion, but please tell me you’ve been watching ‘Breaking Bad’. Seriously, and this is upon considerable reflection, but this show is basically on par with ‘The Wire’ as the best drama in television history. If it’s behind, it’s only by a hair. Easily the best thing on right now. I’ve not really seen this ‘Mad Men’ show you’ve mentioned and I know it gets big props, but I just hate that era, 50s/60s, it doesn’t really interest me much apart from the geopolitical aspects, but regardless I’m crowning BB as King Shit of Fuck Mountain here and now. Plus, Bob Odenkirk as the fake Jewish lawyer with nebulous underworld ties at every turn? So awesome.

  5. A2K Avatar
    A2K

    First off, will Scott Baker ever discover the difference between a Quality Start, his ass and a hole in the ground? He seems like he’s about to show something, and then proceeds to fall on a cactus ass first.
    What are your personal thoughts about the guy?
    Secondly, and not nearly as important, does Dreamweapon ever stop being another county heard from?

  6. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Is bucholtz-gamel just a made up rumor? I doubt the sox will go for it. Clay is in the rotation for the next 5 years.
    What can you expect from your boy J fox?
    Any reason to be interested in Gamel fantasty wise this year? He has been getting some PT.

    Welcome back DDD. Its been too long.

  7. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Trump, yes, I made it up myself a few wees ago and am rolling with it. I know it probably won’t happen, but is it really so nuts? I mean, Ortiz’s .581 OPS is almost .100 below Yovani Gallardo’s, and like .30 below Matt Cain’s. Maybe it’s too early to give up on him, but he does look pretty wrecked right now. And it’s not like Boston has a ton of power bats or anything. His OPS has ratcheted up every year of his minor league career so far, to .933 in 500+ ABs in Double-A last year and 1.075 in Triple-A this year before his call-up. He’s a legitimate stick, but his defense is horrific so he’s a natural AL fit. Unless he’s dealt, I don’t know if he has a ton of value this year for that reason alone, although the Weeks injury does change things a little bit, Hall could theoretically play a serviceable 2b if pressed into duty. But I don’t know….if Braun’s 3b play was too bad for them to stomach, it’s hard to see them putting up with Gamel’s….

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – Glad to be back. Very frustrating not being allowed to publish anything. But hopefully with a new host, that’s the end of the many problems I encountered.

    I really don’t understand Torre’s problem with Kemp.

    I forgot about that Giants quote! Nicely done.

    Buchholz HAS to be dealt soon. NL teams should be lining up.

    I have not been watching “Breaking Bad,” but I’ve had it recommended by others as well. I promise to rent season 1 this summer, and it’s for sure at the top of my list. As for “Mad Men,” I’m usually not big on that era as well, but this is done so well, it works. Didn’t know Bob Odenkirk was in Breaking Bad this season.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    A2K – I still like Baker and consider him a very good buy-low target. A 3.9:1 K:BB ratio is elite, and his ERA is not in line with his solid WHIP. He’ll always be homer-prone, but his 19.4% HR/F rate shows he’s been very unlucky in that area so far this year.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald – Good to be back…J. Fox was killing it in the minors, but he doesn’t really have a spot on the Cubs right now. However, they are trying to get him to learn third base on the fly, and if he picks it up, he’ll see plenty of at-bats while A. Ramiriez remains out (which is a while longer). Still, Fox is more of an NL-only add as of now.

    Gamel could be a sneaky pickup – B. Hall is atrocious against right-handers. Too bad Gamel is off to such a slow start, b/c it looks like he may be given a chance on the right side of a platoon – that is, if his terrible defense doesn’t force him out of the lineup. Gamel is legit with the bat.

  11. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    For the record, the sox wont trade Clay bucholtz. Masterson or Bowden, sure.

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I wouldn’t trade Buchholz either if I were the Red Sox.

  13. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    They wouldn’t trade him for Matt Kemp? Because I sure would if I were them.

  14. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Did D. Price just go from 2009 bust to super stud in 24 hours? 17K in 9 IP is hard to dismiss.

  15. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Who was labeling him a bust? The same people pouring their life savings into shares of CROX a year ago?

  16. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – I don’t think Buchholz for Kemp is a slam dunk from the Red Sox’s point of view. The early numbers point to Kemp vastly improving defensively this year, but it’s still a small sample size, and he had been brutal beforehand. And while I love his power/speed combo, that’s more valuable in fantasy than real baseball, where Kemp’s career OPS is .819. Of course, he’s still just 24 years old with a ton of potential and is only going to get better, and if he remains in center field, his bat should equate to more than a few All-Star appearances.

    However, Buchholz has true ace potential, and I’d take one of them over a bat every time. That said, he’s obviously less proven, and as a pitcher, far riskier. So I wouldn’t necessarily disagree with you and take Kemp over him. Just saying it’s not a no-brainer.

  17. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald – Definitely impressive for Price. And a bit unexpected after such a lackluster performance in the minors. Maybe he truly was bored with that inferior competition.

  18. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Well, we have to remember that Kemp is essentially a converted basketball player, he’s still a pup in terms of learning the game. He’s got a rocket arm, he’s plenty fast, sure seems capable of hitting for average and the power potential seems self-evident….he may not be a completed product, sure, but if you’re working with raw material, you have to love having a big ol’ block of premium marble instead of crappy sandstone.

    But yeah, everyone seems to feel that pitchers are more valuable. I just wonder if the conventional wisdom isn’t a little too conventional. I guess the way I look at it is if all of the teams disbanded and reformed and a general draft was held, I’d probably take Kemp in the second round b/c he seems like a great franchise cornerstone, a guy who can play every day, has a ton of potential and is already operating at an All-Star level, is an extremely minimal injury risk, etc., etc. He’s proven enough to me that I would do that. Buchholz just seems like more of an unknown. But I suspect that quality is what a lot of people find attractive in and of itself.

  19. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I agree and tried to state as much – Kemp would definitely be the safer choice, and therefore, likely smarter – it’s just that a dominant ace still has more upside. Sure, hitters “play everyday,” but every fifth day, that SP has about as great an impact on that game as the hitter did the previous five games. Just look at the vegas odds depending on the SP matchups – they wouldn’t change all that much even if Albert Pujols were sitting out one game.

  20. Matt Avatar
    Matt

    Would this be a savvy move – trade Holliday for Justin Upton?
    My HR/RBI numbers are pathetic. Thanks, glad RS is back up and running.

  21. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Honestly, while this appears to be selling-low and buying-high, I have no problem making that deal. Expect Upton’s average to decrease will all those Ks, but Holliday can’t match his power/speed combo.

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