By Dalton Del Don
Some pitchers, like Josh Johnson, come back stronger after Tommy John surgery, even seeing an increase in velocity. Sadly, Francisco Liriano is not one of these pitchers. In 2006, he was baseball’s best starter when on the mound, striking out 144 batters over 121 innings with a 2.16 ERA and 1.00 WHIP. Always viewed as an injury risk, an arm injury followed, eventually leading to the surgery. Last year’s disappointing season could be forgiven, as poor command is a common theme among pitchers returning from Tommy John, and he finished strong, posting a 60:19 K:BB ratio with a 2.74 ERA and a 1.19 WHIP over the final 65.2 innings. Still, an extremely easy schedule contributed, as seven of his final 10 starts came against the Royals, Athletics and Mariners, who ranked as the three lowest scoring teams in the American League. So far in 2009, the optimism has vanished, as Liriano currently sports a 5.75 ERA and 1.33 WHIP. His 7.30 K/9 IP mark isn’t bad, but it’s a far cry from his prime, and more is expected now that he’s 2.5 years removed from surgery. The radar gun has been even more telling than the results, as he’s averaged 9.14 mph with his fastball. In 2006, that number was at 94.7, so that’s a significant decrease. The same goes for his slider, which has dropped from 87.7 in 2006 to 85.5 this season. He’s also throwing that pitch far less frequently (37.6% down to 26.1%) due to its stress on his arm. Liriano’s numbers will improve, and he’ll no doubt retain plenty of fantasy value, but it’s too bad the injury affected his long-term prognosis so much, as another Cy Young type performance looks unlikely.
It’s safe to say the Nationals are pleased with the Adam Dunn signing so far. The Big Donkey has already knocked out 11 homers while posting a 1.082 OPS despite switching to a park far less hitter-friendly. Of course, there’s zero chance his current .310 batting average doesn’t sharply decline, and he’s still an absolute butcher with the glove, but it’s doubtful there’s a player with a career .905 OPS that gets less respect. Remember, Dunn was largely ignored on the free agent market. In fact, GM Brian Sabean thought it’d be a better idea to give Edgar Renteria a two-year, $18 million deal than sign Dunn for 2/$20 million. After all, it’s not like the Giants need a first baseman or anything (Dunn’s poor range would be less of a problem there anyway). Or a power hitter who gets on base.
Over his last four starts, Clay Buchholz has a 32:4 K:BB ratio over 26.1 innings with a 0.34 ERA. This after he was highly impressive in spring training. It’s completely illogical for a prospect this good to be rotting in the minors, while mediocrity like Brad Penny has a 16:15 K:BB ratio and a 6.90 ERA over 30 innings. Penny hasn’t been even average since 2006, and that was while pitching in the NL West. It’s not like Justin Masterson’s ceiling even approaches Buchholz’s either. Still, Time Wakefield has been solid, Daisuke Matsuzaka is about to return and eventually John Smoltz should enter the picture, so maybe a trade would be best for Buchholz.
As recently as April 21, Justin Upton had a line of .167/.250/.222. He now currently sports a .974 OPS that is more than 100 points higher than any teammate. He still strikes out too frequently, but he has a strong walk rate and few 21 year olds have ever possessed this kind of raw power. Over his last 163 at-bats, Upton has hit 11 homers, which is unprecedented for someone so young. While his success rate has been spotty, he’s also capable of contributing 20 steals as well. If a keeper-league held a draft today, Upton would be worth a top-five pick.
Randy Johnson currently has a 5.89 ERA and 1.42 WHIP, and at age 45, it would be easy to write him off. Still, a strong K rate (9.6 K/9 IP) suggests you shouldn’t, and horrible luck has greatly contributed to the slow start. In fact, he’s flashing a whopping 34.7% HR/F rate, which is almost 10 percent higher than the second highest mark (Roy Oswalt, 25.2 %). Of course, the Big Unit is hardly in his prime, and a decrease in fastball velocity could have something to do with his gopheritis. But to put his bad luck into perspective, the pitcher with the highest HR/F mark in all of baseball last year John Lannan at 17.5%, which is about half Johnson’s current rate, so it’s safe to expect a major correction soon. His slider still has bite and remains a terrific pitch, and he’s actually throwing it harder (85 mph) than he has since 2002 so far this season. Johnson, who has a ludicrous home/road split right now (32:3 K:BB ratio at AT&T Park versus a 7:13 K:BB ratio on the road), isn’t a bad buy-low target.
I’m beginning to sense Evan Longoria is pretty good at baseball. The sophomore had 11 long balls with a 1.114 OPS and leads the majors in total bases (95) and extra-base hits (27), while placing second in Isolated Power (.368). He also has the second best UZR/150 (30.6) among all third baseman after leading in that category last season (20.1), meaning he’s likely the best defensive player at the hot corner in the league. His 31:13 K:BB ratio suggests he’s not quite in Albert Pujols territory just yet, but few players have impressed as much before reaching 600 career at-bats. Factoring in his age (23), Longoria would likely be the No. 1 overall pick if starting a franchise from scratch.
With 44 strikeouts over his last 29.1 innings, it’s safe to say Justin Verlander is back. The opportunity to buy-low is long gone, and any lucky owner should hardly be looking to sell even with the renewed value. Verlander looked like a Cy Young candidate entering last season, but instead delivered a disappointing campaign with a decreased K rate and inflated walk rate. In 2008, his average fastball velocity was down to 93.6 mph, but it’s up to 95.4 mph this season, which has obviously made a big difference. He can comfortably be considered a top-five fantasy starter from here on out.
Thursday’s golden sombrero notwithstanding, Jayson Werth has been a monster this month, batting .387 with four home runs, 10 runs scored, 10 RBI and five steals over the past 10 games. While continuing to mash lefties, Werth has improved against right-handers this season, posting a .917 OPS. Batting in a loaded lineup full of southpaws in a terrific hitter’s park, only an injury can prevent further success. Werth has a remarkable 89.5% success rate in stolen base attempts throughout his career, and he easily led all outfielders last season with a 35.3 UZR/150 rating and would have finished first by an even wider margin had he qualified in 2007, so he’s a fantastic defender. Entering Thursday, he also led the league in pitches per plate appearance with 4.58. Werth signed a two-year, $10 million contract during the offseason. Meanwhile, Aaron Rowand is in the second season of his five-year, $60 million deal.
One of the bigger surprises so far has to be Johnny Damon’s nine home runs. He’s only topped 20 long balls twice during his 15-year career, and he’s currently slugging 135 points higher than his previous high, set in 2000 with Kansas City. Damon’s power is sure to normalize, and it’s worth noting he hasn’t played in more than 150 games in a season since 2002, but he deserves credit for playing at such a high level at this stage of his career. I know it’s considered insane to give any labels or form any conclusions with the new Yankee Stadium, but Damon has hit six of his nine homers there over just 53 at-bats, and left-handed hitters figure to benefit the most if the early results are any indication.
After getting pounded once again Wednesday, Ricky Nolasco sits with a 7.78 ERA and 1.68 WHIP. His K rate remains strong, but he is walking more batters than last season, and the sluggish start is especially worrisome considering the hurler came somewhat out of nowhere in 2008, which included a huge increase in workload. Still, he was one of the most impressive pitchers in baseball last year, and he’s been one of the most unluckiest ones so far in 2009. His .387 BABIP is the third highest mark in the league, while his .531 strand rate ranks dead last. His FIP is 4.14, giving him the biggest discrepancy between that and his ERA (-3.64) by nearly a full run in all of baseball. Although his slider has seen a small drop in velocity, his fastball is exactly the same as last season, so he’s an excellent buy-low target. And now is the time to make some offers, as Nolasco’s next scheduled start comes at home against the Diamondbacks, who have scored the fewest runs in MLB.
Speaking of the Marlins, Chris Coghlan needs to be owned in all but the shallowest fantasy leagues. He was hitting .344 with a 10:12 K:BB ratio and was successful on nine of his 10 SB attempts over 96 at-bats in Triple-A before getting called up. While his three homers don’t jump off the page, he also had nine doubles, so he’s one of the league’s better prospects. With Cameron Maybin struggling mightily and getting sent down, it looks like Florida is going to give him a legit opportunity, something that’s unclear with other recent additions like Nolan Reimold, Gerardo Parra and Mat Gamel (although each of those prospects have plenty of upside as well). And even with the likelihood of Maybin’s eventual return, it’s not like Cody Ross is some long-term answer, and third base could also open up with Emilio Bonifacio showing his true colors, so Coghlan could become a fixture with a strong audition, and he’s even batting second in the early going. Frustratingly, I lost him by one measly dollar in NL LABR (I bid $28). That’s going to haunt me for the rest of the season.
Leave a Reply