By Dalton Del Don
I’m beginning to think Albert Pujols is pretty good at baseball. Entering Thursday, he led the NL with a 1.215 OPS and an outrageous 9:19 K:BB ratio, making a total mockery of pitchers. He has more homers (11) than strikeouts, which is a joke. Pujols is also one of the game’s best base runners, and his defense is terrific (8.5 UZR/150). The fact he’s also on pace to steal 22 bags is just unfair for those who don’t own him in fantasy leagues.
What do we make of Josh Beckett’s poor start to the season? His K rate (9.35/9 IP) is his best since 2003, but his control (4.41 BB/9 IP) has never been worse. Still, most of it can be blamed on bad luck, as his .405 BABIP is the highest in all of baseball and more than 100 points higher than his career rate (.301). He’s giving up too many line drives (26.4%), which is a disturbing trend dating back to last season, and it seems he gets into most of his trouble when he relies too heavily on his breaking stuff, and he’s currently throwing curveballs at the highest frequency of his career (29.6%). Fenway also remains a stumbling block, where his career ERA is 4.86. Still, Beckett’s stuff is among the best in baseball, and his hard luck to sure to change, making him an excellent buy-low target. It wouldn’t surprise if he pitched like a top-five starter from here on out.
Did you guys hear? Manny Ramirez tested positive for performance-enhancing drugs. I also hear Brett Favre is considering coming out of “retirement.” It’s just too bad ESPN barely covers such interesting sports issues. In all seriousness, I wanted to write the column without mentioning Ramirez’s suspension, but it’s worth noting how it adversely affects Orlando Hudson and Andre Ethier. Hudson is currently in the midst of the best season of his career by a wide margin, posting a .342/.425/.538 line with an accompanying 12:17 K:BB ratio. Despite moving from an extreme hitter’s park to one that played as the second most pitcher friendly venue behind only Petco Park last season, Hudson’s slugging percentage is 84 points higher than his previous best mark, and he’s also 4-for-4 on the base paths. Most studies suggest lineup protection is an overrated theory that essentially doesn’t exist, but I think it’s safe to say Ramirez’s presence in the Dodgers’ order has benefitted “O-Dog” greatly. Because of his fragility and the fact he was playing over his head, Hudson was already a sell-high candidate, but now that’s unlikely to be easy to execute. Meanwhile, Either, who has been hitting cleanup and has also posted a career-high .995 OPS, might suffer even more from Ramirez’s 50 games off. After all, Ethier had come to the plate with more runners on base (119) than anyone in baseball, and it’s no coincidence James Loney ranks second in that department (113). Additionally, run, don’t walk to pick up Juan Pierre, who is now likely gone in all but the shallowest of leagues.
Brett Myers has once again become a human launching pad, serving up a whopping 10 homers over 37 innings pitched. That’s especially unacceptable with spotty control (3.65 BB/9 IP). His fastball averaged 92.1 mph in 2007, and after dropping to 90.1 last year, it’s all the way down to 88.9 this season. Not good when you call Citizens Bank Park home. With a .299 BABIP, it’s hard to blame his poor performance on luck. While his 26.2% HR/F is sure to drop, let’s take a look at his rates in that department from 2004-2008: 16.0%, 17.0%, 15.3%, 14.2% and 16.1%. It’s safe to call this a trend, so it would be a mistake to expect him to fall to the mean.
While Adam Jones never stopped looking like a future star, as a 23-year-old coming off a second half in which he posted a .663 OPS and a 28:4 K:BB ratio last season, his terrific start to 2009 has taken me by surprise. He’s not just beating up southpaws either, hitting .388 against right-handers. His walk rate is way up, and it looks like he’ll be a fixture in All-Star games for years to come, although some growing pains are still likely at some point this year. Remember, he went 7-for-7 in stolen base attempts over 20 spring training games, so more steals should follow as well. Since Jones is also a terrific defender in center field (11.5 UZR/150), it’s safe to say the Orioles aren’t regretting the Erik Bedard trade, no matter how well the soon to be free agent is pitching.
It’s time to go ahead and call Jonathan Broxton the No. 1 closer in fantasy baseball. Dating back to last season, he’s posted a staggering 14.2 K/9 IP mark over 39.1 innings. Not that save opportunities are predictable, but throwing for a good team in an extreme pitcher’s park also helps. While he’s sure to receive less work while now the full-time closer, this is a reliever who has fanned 187 batters over the last two seasons. Sure, his current .121 BABIP is unsustainable, but I doubt many are expecting him to finish with a 0.429 WHIP, either. Few, if not none, pitchers can match such a high strikeout rate with such a strong G/F (1.83) ratio, making Broxton the class of major league relievers.
I try not to pay too much attention to monthly splits unless the evidence becomes overwhelming, and in Mark Teixeira’s case, we may have reached that point. During his seven-year career, he’s posted a .790 OPS in April. In no other month is it lower than .882, and since his second worst mark comes in May, it’s safe to say Teixeira is a slow starter. Yankee fans and fantasy owners have no reason to panic, as he’s sure to rebound in a big way over the rest of the season.
Those still waiting for Lastings Milledge to reach his potential better not be holding their breath, as the toolsy outfielder is currently sporting an ugly .242/.277/.306 line in Triple-A. This after he posted a .397 OPS with a 10:1 K:BB ratio over 24 at-bats to start the season with Washington. Of course, that sample size is worthless, but this is a batter who has hit just one home run over his last 228 at-bats, counting spring training and dating back to last year. Since he’s also a terrible defender (-20.1 UZR/150) and a malcontent, Milledge is a long ways from helping the Nationals. Or your fantasy team.
The light might have finally turned on for Felix Hernandez, who is flashing a seriously improved K rate (10.13/9 IP) this season. Of course, he hasn’t pitched poorly over the last three years, especially when you consider his age (just turned 23!), but because he entered the league as one of the best pitching prospects ever, he hadn’t exactly met the sky-high expectations. Hernandez’s G/F ratio has decreased for the second straight season this year, but his 2.25 BB/9 IP mark and the aforementioned K rate are career-bests. It’s nice to see him harnessing such filthy stuff.
Chris Davis is on pace to finish the season with 255 strikeouts, which would shatter the MLB-record set by Mark Reynolds (204) last year. While Davis’ .211 batting average is sure to improve, it wouldn’t be wise to expect better than .240-.260 in that area. Still, Davis is also on a 41-homer pace, and the rest of his counting stats should be strong while hitting in a potent Texas lineup. Sticking with the Rangers, Hank Blalock has proven to be an excellent bargain at 3B, as he was unlikely to cost that high of a draft pick back in March and is on a similar 41-homer pace. His sub-.300 OBP isn’t helping the Rangers, but because he’s batting cleanup in that lineup, Blalock is also on pace to finish with 110 RBI. Of course, durability is always an issue with him, but maybe the full-time DH role will lead to continued health.
Minor league talk: There’s a lot of clamoring for Luke Hochevar to get called up, and with the immortal Sidney Ponson occupying a rotation spot for a team currently in first place, it makes perfect sense. Hochevar has an impressive 1.13 ERA with a 3.0 GO/AO ratio, so the former No. 1 overall pick may soon force Kansas City’s hand. Still, with just a 21:10 K:BB ratio over 32 innings, he doesn’t look ready to contribute in mixed leagues…During his last two starts, Homer Bailey has posted a 20:3 K:BB ratio over 13.1 innings. It’s time to turn Micah Owings into an outfielder…I understand the logistics of delaying a players’ arbitration clock, but the Braves are in fourth place with a roster capable of contending, so how much longer can they waste Tommy Hanson in Triple-A? The guy has a 1.65 ERA with 48 strikeouts over 32.2 innings. The franchise can’t afford to wait much longer…It’s unclear how much of a chance Arizona will give Josh Whitesell, but there are plenty of Diamondbacks who deserve benching, including first baseman Chad Tracy. Whitesell had a 1.028 OPS in Triple-A, with a 21:20 K:BB ratio. Especially while playing in Chase Field, he could be a sneaky add in NL-only leagues.
Scott Baker has a 9.15 ERA and a 1.50 WHIP, making him one of the bigger disappointments so far this season. Still, nothing in his small sample size warrants panicking, and he has posted an 11:2 K:BB ratio over his last two starts. Baker is giving up more flyballs than ever, but his HR/F rate (27.2%) has been incredibly unlucky, as has his strand rate (.435). In fact, opposing batters are hitting a whopping .481 against Baker with runners on base, something that’s sure to regress to the mean. His 3.4:1 K:BB ratio was seventh best in the AL last season, so Baker is a decent buy-low target.
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