The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Over his last three starts, Melky Cabrera has four homers. With Hideki Matsui’s knees still a major issue and Brett Gardner off to a horrendous start (.240/.283/.300), Cabrera should be looking at increased playing time. Last season was a humbling experience for Cabrera, who doesn’t figure to take anything for granted this time around. This type of early power isn’t going to stay, but with the new stadium appearing to be a major hitter’s park, there’s still some upside here, especially if he decides to run more frequently. Austin Jackson is the future, but Cabrera can be valuable in the meantime and needs to be picked up in all but the shallowest formats.

Bengie Molina currently has a higher batting average (.308) than on-base percentage (.296).

Francisco Liriano’s slow start is at least some cause for concern. His strikeout rate (7.2/9 IP) is down, but the bigger concern is his lack of command (3.8 BB/9 IP), something that figured to only improve the further he’s removed from Tommy John surgery. Relying less and less on his slider combined with a fastball that’s decreased in velocity, it’s safe to say the 2006 version is never coming back. Still, that doesn’t mean the current one can’t be a top-15 fantasy starter, and at least he’s feeling healthy. But dating back to last season and factoring in spring training, Liriano has walked 3.8 batters per nine innings, so improved control is a must.

Andre Ethier is going to go down as one of the biggest steals in fantasy baseball this year. While he’s doesn’t have a ton of power/speed upside, this is a hitter who posted a .991 OPS after the break last season. And while it’s an extremely small sample size, his early success against left-handers (1.362 OPS) is terrific news moving forward. He’s walked more times (12) than he’s struck out (11) in 2009, and at age 27, he’s just now entering his prime. Moreover, batting cleanup behind Manny Ramirez certainly has its advantages, as Ethier has been to the plate with more runners on base (65) than any other hitter in baseball this season. He’s going to be on a lot of winning fantasy teams in 2009.

Justin Verlander might be the toughest player to evaluate right now. With a 4.84 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in 2008, he easily qualified as one of the bigger disappointments who wasn’t injured last season. His walk rate increased and his K rate decreased, so it’s not like bad luck was the culprit. During spring this year, Verlander posted a terrible 15:16 K:BB ratio over 32.1 innings, leaving little room for optimism. However, he’s started 2009 with an impressive 10.7 K/9 IP mark, and his fastball has jumped to an average of 95.3 mph. However, his ERA sits at 9.00 and his WHIP is 1.71. With a .412 BABIP and .455 strand rate, it’s easy to say he’s been quite unlucky, and combined with the strong K rate, he does appear to be an excellent buy-low candidate. On the other hand, a 3.86 BB/9 IP mark is a big problem, his LD% is at a career-high (25%) and his GB% is at a career-low (28.1%), so bad luck certainly isn’t the only explanation. In fact, his xFIP is 4.86. Of course, Verlander’s ERA is going to come significantly down from 9.00, and the K rate is encouraging as well as the increased velocity, which suggests his arm is sound. But to expect a return to the days he was considered a Cy Young contender would also be unwise, as there’s clearly still plenty of reason for concern.

Grady Sizemore is currently on pace to finish the season with 61 homers, 30 steals, 152 runs and 172 RBI. Despite the .258 batting average, I’d probably not go dropping him.

Billy Butler continues to disappoint, hitting just .213 with zero homers to open the year. His K% is way up, and he’s hitting an unacceptable 1.73 GB/FB. Surprisingly, he’s actually hitting righties (.665 OPS) better than southpaws (.561 OPS), which is the opposite trend of the rest of his career. Hopefully Kansas City doesn’t do anything rash and send him down again, but Butler needs to start living up to his potential at some point. I remain a believer.

Speaking of Royals’ disappointments, Mike Aviles is off to a dreadful start (.182/.193/.218). While he’s clearly going to improve on that line, he’s someone I’m less bullish on overall. At age 28, he came out of nowhere last to season to hit .325, but since that was aided by a .359 BABIP, he was someone I strongly suggested avoiding in 2009. I wouldn’t outright drop the guy, but with a 14:1 K:BB ratio so far, expectations need to be lowered significantly.

With a 20:1 K:BB ratio over 19.0 innings, it’s time to start thinking about stashing Carlos Carrasco in deep leagues. He’s always exhibited good strikeout rates, but the improved command shows he’s ready to make his big league debut soon enough. Philadelphia’s ballpark limits his upside, but Carrasco could be a difference maker, especially in NL-only formats (he’s obviously long gone in those).

Speaking of stashing minor league pitchers, Phil Hughes is an even bigger must-add. He has a 19:3 K:BB ratio over 19.1 innings and is the logical choice to join the Yankees’ rotation next week once the team makes up an injury to DL Chien-Ming Wang. I haven’t seen any reports about whether his velocity has returned, but the results suggest it has. The former top prospect still possesses plenty of upside.