By Dalton Del Don
1. Atlanta Braves
Hitting: The Braves hardly have the best offense in their division, but they do have two superstars in their lineup, and Kelly Johnson, Yunel Escobar and Casey Kotchman could all take the next step this year. However, the outfield is probably below average, and Jeff Francoeur’s development (or lack thereof) will play a big role in Atlanta’s prospects for 2009.
Pitching: Easily the deepest and best rotation in the division, the Braves’ staff will need to carry this team, just like the old days. A front three of Javy Vazquez, Derek Lowe and Jair Jurrjens is nice, and Kenshin Kawakami is likely to be an above average No. 4 starter as well. It remains to be seen what Tom Glavine has left, but Tommy Hanson is the NL’s best pitching prospect and ready to step in when needed. Rafael Soriano and Mike Gonzalez need to stay healthy, but the bullpen has some upside as well. Maybe it’s just my overly optimistic thinking since I bet on the Braves to win the World Series a couple of months ago at 50-1 odds, but this rotation is very strong. Moreover, ESPN used their computers to run through a bunch of scenarios and they had Atlanta finishing fourth in the division, nearly 10 games under .500 – so that made me feel more confident.
2. New York Mets (wild card winner)
Hitting: It remains to be seen how the new park will play, but all signs point to it being pitcher-friendly. Even so, the Mets figure to be among the league’s better offenses, and it wouldn’t surprise if both David Wright and Carlos Beltran finished in the top-five in MVP voting. It wouldn’t be wise to count on Carlos Delgado to hit like he did after the break last year, but Luis Castillo has supposedly rededicated himself, while Ryan Church and Daniel Murphy could be sneaky productive.
Pitching: While the team upgraded its bullpen, the starting rotation could be a problem. It looks like Johan Santana dodged a bullet, but his skills took a noticeable decline last season, and with a decrease in velocity, he no longer looks like baseball’s best pitcher. Still, he’ll be plenty effective if he can remain healthy, but the rest of the staff all have question marks. Oliver Perez might be the most inconsistent starter in the game, and Mike Pelfrey really needs to start missing more bats if he wants to live up to his billing. John Maine has looked shaky this spring, but with that offense, the team just needs its No. 2-4 starters to be average. Their No. 5 looks to be one of the worst in the league.
3. Philadelphia Phillies
Hitting: This is no knock on the world champs, and in fact, I’d have the Phillies easily winning the NL Central. But like the American League, the East is the senior circuit’s strongest division, and it’s never easy the following year after winning the World Series. Still, if they do in fact fall short of the postseason in 2009, it won’t be by more than a game or two in a tightly contested division. Chase Utley’s health is integral, and Ryan Howard’s monstrous spring is a terrific sign. I’m a big Jayson Werth fan, but he and Shane Victorino are rather injury-prone. Also, this lineup is ridiculously left-handed heavy, so Philadelphia should struggle against southpaws.
Pitching: Cole Hamels is back on the mound, but his velocity has been way down, and this is an injury-prone pitcher who threw the most pitches in all of baseball last year, and if he goes down, so does the team. Brett Myers lost a bunch of weight during the offseason and could finally pitch like a true No. 1/2 starter this season, but since he also threw the third most pitches in MLB last year, including a ton of curveballs, he’s also a candidate to breakdown. The rest of the rotation is pretty much a mess, so this team will need to be carried by its sticks. Ryan Madson is a rock solid setup man, but there’s not a chance Brad Lidge converts 100 percent of his save chances like he did last year. With a shaky and injury-prone rotation pitching in a hitter’s park, don’t be surprised to see the bullpen heavily overworked.
4. Florida Marlins
Hitting: The Marlins are a trendy pick this season, and if not for playing in the NL East, there’d be more merit to it. Cameron Maybin can help in fantasy leagues right away, but he’s probably a year or two away from being truly helpful to Florida. Emilio Bonifacio is an uninspired choice to man third base, although maybe this is the year Jeremy Hermida finally lives up to his potential. Dallas McPherson hit 42 homers in 127 games last year in Triple-A, but the Marlins felt that warranted his release this week.
Pitching: A definite strength. Ricky Nolasco was one of the three best pitchers in the NL last season, and he could definitely vie for the Cy Young this year if he can remain healthy (certainly a big if). Josh Johnson is a fantastic No. 2 starter who could turn into an ace, and Chris Volstad induces enough grounders to get by without a good K rate. Anibal Sanchez and Andrew Miller have even more upside than Volstad, but if spring training was any indication, they remain far away from reaching that potential. Kiko Calero is a sleeper in deep NL-only leagues.
5. Washington Nationals
Hitting: The offense actually might not be terrible, although that would require the unlikely event of Nick Johnson staying healthy, and Ryan Zimmerman needs to avoid the bust label. Anyone counting on Cristian Guzman repeating last year’s performance will be left disappointed, although the outfield is crowded in a good way (not to fantasy owners, however).
Pitching: The top-three of John Lannan, Scott Olsen and Daniel Cabrera have disaster written all over them. However, Jordan Zimmermann and Shairon Martis are intriguing. While pitching will be a problem this season, at least Washington has a future that looks better than bleak. Zimmermann was nothing short of fantastic this spring, while Martis is a deep sleeper. Remember, Brian Sabean traded him for Mike Stanton back in 2006.
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