By Dalton Del Don
It really wouldn’t be all that crazy to consider Carlos Beltran late in the first round of drafts this year. His current ADP is 22.33, which seems low – behind inferior options like Matt Holliday, Lance Berkman and Justin Morneau. Normally I’m against recommending players on the wrong side of 30, but it’s not like Beltran is that past his prime at age 31 (he’ll turn 32 in April). Now, injuries are a concern with him, and it’s not best to target a somewhat fragile player coming off a season in which he played 161 games, but he actually enters 2009 healthier than he’s felt in years now finally over knee problems. Over the past three years, Beltran has averaged 34 homers, 22 steals, 113 RBI and 112 runs. He’s not a huge help in BA, but his K rate dropped significantly last year, and his career 88 percent stolen base rate is truly remarkable. Since he’s also extremely good defensively (his 8.5 UZR/150 last year was sixth best among center fielders), he’s one of the most underrated players in the game.
I have mixed feelings about Felix Hernandez. When he entered the league in 2005, he was probably the best prospect of my lifetime. While he certainly hasn’t been a bust since then, it’s safe to say he’s been a pretty big disappointment. His command regressed badly last season (3.59 BB/9 IP), as did his G/F ratio – his 1.68 mark was still very good, but it was at 2.67 in 2007 and 2.15 in 2006. Also, his 7.85 K/9 IP feels like a letdown with his arsenal. Over the last three years, his WHIP has gone from 1.34 to 1.38 to 1.39. It’s easy to forget, but King Felix is still just 22 years old, so it would be a major mistake to give up on him, but his lack of progress has been frustrating. A Cy Young type season wouldn’t surprise, but he pitched worse than ever over the final two months last year (54:30 K:BB ratio in 69.2 innings), and he remains an injury risk, so don’t go assuming stardom is fast approaching.
Rick Ankiel might be a bit undervalued this year since he hit just .169 over the last two months in 2008, finishing with a modest .264 BA. However, a sports hernia was directly to blame, and this is someone who had 20 homers at the All-Star break. Remember, Ankiel has only been a full-time hitter for three years now, so there’s still room for improvement even at age 29. He does strike out too often, but the power is for real, and he’s slated to hit cleanup behind Albert Pujols in a contract-year this season. Go get him.
With Adam Jones, Nick Markakis and Felix Pie in the outfield and Cesar Izturis at shortstop, the Orioles have the makings of possibly the best defense in baseball. Baltimore has some solid young arms in the minors, but it’s too bad there aren’t any major league options for fantasy leaguers to take advantage of. Don’t be surprised come midseason when writers are throwing up their arms about how hurlers like Jeremy Guthrie have much better numbers than their peripherals suggest they should.
Jose Reyes vs. Hanley Ramirez is much closer than most realize, as Ramirez almost always goes first in drafts. He’s the superior real life player, obviously, but there’s real risk his SB totals start dropping dramatically, especially since he’s slated to move to the three-hole. Thirty steals are still likely, but Reyes has averaged 64.5 swipes over the past four seasons. He hits in the superior lineup and also has 20-homer pop. You can’t go wrong either way, and incredibly, both are just 25 years old.
In this article written by a reporter from the “Cleveland Plain Dealer,” Tony Grossi, a beat writer for the Browns, talks about a rumored trade of Brady Quinn and Shaun Rogers for Jay Cutler and a third round pick. Now, this trade isn’t going to happen, but what struck me was that Grossi claims in that scenario the Browns get “shortchanged,” even referring to Cutler as “kind of an upgraded version of Derek Anderson.” Yeah, kind of. One’s a potential Hall of Famer and one of the five most valuable properties in football. The other sucks. I realize Rogers is a good player, but he wants out anyway after Eric Mangini has alienated him to no end. (By the way, it’s become abundantly clear Mangini doesn’t have what it takes to run a football team). The fact Denver would have to add a third rounder in this fictitious deal makes it even more laughable. And people wonder why newspapers are deader than Elvis.
This is a few days old, but worth mentioning. Very cool article written by Dave Cameron over at FanGraphs. Research shows there’s a significant difference between home and road BABIP – just another tool that could prove useful. It also makes plenty of sense. Not only would fielders have a distinct advantage playing on their home turf, but hitters are likely to perform better under their more familiar conditions as well.
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