By Dalton Del Don
Chris Iannetta is my favorite target at catcher this year. He’s no secret after posting an .895 OPS last season, but he’s not exactly getting treated like a future star either, with an ADP of 135 (with seven catchers going before him). Durability questions remain, but he’s clearly Colorado’s future at catcher, so he’s looking at a career-high in at-bats in 2009. Iannetta is no fluke, as he posted a .915 OPS throughout his minor league career. Moreover, he actually hit better on the road (.280) than at home (.250) last year, and it’s safe to expect better numbers at Coors Field this season. I wouldn’t be shocked if he has a better year than Geovany Soto. However, I would be surprised if Iannetta isn’t the better value.
I’ve always liked Anthony Reyes and targeted him in all my leagues last year, even paying $6 for him at LABR. After getting away from Dave Duncan, whom Reyes never got along with, he posted a 1.83 ERA and 1.25 WHIP in Cleveland, and he enters 2009 with a clear place in the Indians’ rotation. However, the pretty ERA came with some ugly peripherals – a 15:12 K:BB ratio over 34.1 innings. A 3.93 K/9 IP mark is brutal. It comes as no surprise his BABIP was .262 in Cleveland, and his strand rate was .878, so it’s not like he improved as a pitcher. There’s still some talent here, but it looks like it’ll never be realized, and he was even shut down at the end of last season with elbow soreness. Stay far, far away.
Pretty awesome headline from Newsday.
You don’t need me to tell you Jay Bruce is an elite talent, but he’s also not a bad target this year. After a scorching start to his career, hitting .577 with three homers over his first seven games, he never hit better than .256 in any of the season’s final four months last year, so some of his “best prospect in baseball” luster may be worn off in upcoming redraft leagues. Bruce strikes out too often to be a help in BA, but he clubbed 14 homers of the final two months last year and could run more if he so pleases (although his success rate has been dreadful throughout the minors). He really struggles against left-handers, so Bruce becomes a better option in daily leagues, but there’s a ton of upside here. I’d take him over the likes of Torii Hunter, Hunter Pence, Magglio Ordonez and Adam Dunn.
Sadly, it sounds like the old Francisco Liriano ain’t ever coming back.
Trevor Hoffman is one of the better values at closer in 2009. Many will look at last season’s 3.77 ERA (his highest since 1995) and his move out of Petco Park as reasons to avoid him, but even at age 41, his skills remain intact. Last year’s 9.18 K/9 IP mark was his best since 2002, and his command was superb as well (1.8 BB/9 IP). He had a better K rate on the road last year, and he actually allowed seven of his eight homers at Petco. Hoffman isn’t an exciting name, and he won’t throw more than 60 innings, but those should come in relatively low leverage situations; i.e., with the lead and no baserunners on one inning at a time. That should lead to another strong ERA and WHIP, so he remains safe to pursue.
Michael Crabtree’s decision to get surgery now and not run the 40 seems like a no-brainer. Sure, his speed remains in question, and maybe some of his stats were trumped up by playing in the spread offense (Graham Harrell won’t even get drafted), but he had no reason to risk further injury and a delay in minicamps to run at his pro day. Because the Seahawks just signed T.J. Houshmandzadeh, maybe Crabtree falls out of the top-5. But he’ll certainly be a top-10 pick, and I’d actually consider him first overall (although I’d probably take Jason Smith).
Before Monday’s game, Andruw Jones had struck out in eight of his nine spring at-bats. It doesn’t appear a turnaround is imminent. I wonder how old he really is.
Stephen Strasburg struck out 16 batters over 6.2 innings during his last start and reportedly reached 102 mph on the radar gun seven different times. Only Scott Boras or a detached arm can prevent him from going first in this year’s draft.
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