By Dalton Del Don
After posting the results of my auction, I wanted to discuss some strategies and players who ended up on my team.
In a deep format like this, I’m all about not paying for stars and trying to accumulate as many at-bats as possible. In fact, I didn’t spend more than $23 on a single player. In shallow mixed leagues, it’s all about the superstars and upside. Here, it’s more about floor and safety. Moreover, I’m not a fan of paying for saves, although punting a category is pretty risky. I may need to pull off a deal in April.
Chris Iannetta was one of my two specific targets, although $20 was quite steep (and later ridiculed). He’s never been a full-time catcher in the big leagues, so there’s some uncertainty for sure, but he posted a .915 OPS in 803 minor league at-bats and has Coors Field on his side. He’s currently crushing the ball in the WBC and walked 29 times over his final 42 games last season. With Joe Mauer’s health in serious doubt, Russell Martin getting overworked and Victor Martinez coming off an awful campaign, Iannetta could finish as a top-3 catcher. Still, $20 was no bargain.
Chris Young (Ari) was my one other target entering the auction. I figured his career .243 BA should lower his price, and he actually regressed as a sophomore last season. Still, he hit .278 after the All-Star break, including eight homers and six steals over the final two months. It’s odd to see someone with his speed sport just a .281 career BABIP, and Chase Field is a terrific hitting environment. Remember, Young nearly went 30/30 as a rookie – don’t be surprised if he accomplishes the feat this year.
Elijah Dukes for $21 looks pretty bad in hindsight. Jayson Werth ($21) and Justin Upton ($17) were much better buys to be sure. Not only is Dukes a questionable character (“you dead dawg!”), he’s also battling Josh Willingham, Austin Kearns and Wily Mo Pena for playing time. Dukes is also quite injury-prone. Still, he did post a .972 OPS with a 26:22 K:BB ratio after the break last year, and given 550 at-bats, he could approach a 25/25 season. He’s still just 24 years old, so more improvement should be expected. However, his price tag was exorbitant.
I waited to fill my CI spots, and it shows. Bill Hall is supposedly recovering nicely from his calf injury, and he’s expected to be given every opportunity to be Milwaukee’s third baseman this season. He has some pop, but Hall is a major BA liability – he hit .174 against right-handers in 2008. I may not even know who Travis Ishikawa was if I didn’t follow the Giants. He does look like the favorite to start at first base, at least.
I certainly wasn’t planning on buying Chris Young (SD) entering the auction, but I felt $12 was just too low, and $13 stuck. Studies have shown there needs to be about six full seasons of data to get a sufficient sample size for BABIP, so it remains possible Young’s last three years have been a fluke in that department. Still, he is an extreme fly ball pitcher, and Petco helps as well. Wins will be a problem with San Diego’s joke of a lineup, but Young has a strong K rate, although he’s also rather injury-prone.
Manny Parra is also a risk in the health department, but his 4.39 ERA last year was deceiving. He had a .337 BABIP, and a whopping 14.3 percent of his fly balls went over the fence – the eighth highest percentage in major league baseball – so he was quite unlucky. His xFIP was 4.03, and a 7.97 K/9 IP mark with a 1.60 G/F ratio is a good combination.
I’d like to see more strikeouts, but so far, so good regarding Chris Carpenter’s spring. It still remains to be seen how much velocity he’s lost after multiple arm surgeries, but as a $6 flier, I was happy to take the risk. He was the unanimous No. 2 starter off fantasy boards just two years ago.
I had completely written off Homer Bailey, but a strong spring made me buy him for a buck. He’s supposedly finally in the right frame of mind, and early reports suggest he’s regained some velocity. However, his curveball was once projected to be among the best in baseball, and it just hasn’t developed that way. I could see him imploding and killing my ERA, and in LABR’s quirky rules, no player bought can be benched unless they are hurt or in the minors. Micah Owings has actually been even more impressive this spring, so Cincinnati’s rotation is loaded.
John Raynor is a deep sleeper this year. Over his last two seasons in the minors, he’s racked up 102 steals. His OPS over that span was .919, so he’s no slouch at the plate either. Unless you’re a big believer in Cody Ross or think Jeremy Hermida is durable, Raynor could factor into Florida’s outfield mix at some point in 2009.
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