By Dalton Del Don
Jayson Werth is one of my favorite targets this year. He’s a lesser known commodity since last year’s 134 games played were his career-high, and he’s also a bit of an injury risk. However, 24 homers and 20 steals is pretty impressive over just 418 at-bats. He strikes out frequently, but he can also take a walk, so his OBP should remain solid, and Werth has the home ballpark and lineup around him to continue to produce big numbers. He’s finally locked into a regular job as Philadelphia’s right fielder, and his career 90 percent SB success rate (44-of-49) is truly outstanding and also hopefully a sign of more running in the future. You won’t find a more under the radar 30/30 candidate.
Maybe Prince Fielder isn’t a yearly 50-homer guy, but don’t let last season’s slow start lower his value too much. A consensus first round pick in fantasy leagues in 2008, Fielder’s current ADP has dropped all the way to 26 – the seventh first baseman, below an inferior option like Justin Morneau. After hitting just six homers over the first 53 games last year, Fielder clobbered 28 bombs over the final 103 games, which put him on a 44-homer pace, so don’t let a small sample size or vegetarian talk alter your view of him as a lesser power source. Moreover, he sports a very solid K/BB ratio for someone with his HR potential.
Did the Phillies’ pitching coach really call Kyle Kendrick the favorite to act as the team’s fifth starter because of his career 21-13 record? Let’s just hope this was rhetoric to the media, because if a major league baseball organization is employing a pitching coach who values “wins” even one iota, that’s pathetic. Kendrick had a 68:57 K:BB ratio with a 3.94 K/9 IP mark last season.
The Colorado outfield situation is certainly one to watch. Brad Hawpe is locked in as the right fielder, and actually, I’ve found him to be generally undervalued. In center, Ryan Spilborghs looks like the favorite for Opening Day. He was solid in limited work last season, posting an .875 OPS with a 41:38 K:BB ratio. However, he hit more groundballs (103) than fly balls (92), so his power is extremely limited. Also, his defense (UZR/150 = -15.1) was awful last season, making him a huge stretch in center. Dexter Fowler and/or Carlos Gonzalez will almost assuredly get a chance at some point, with Fowler possessing the most upside of the trio. And then there’s left field, where Seth Smith is battling Ian Stewart (and possibly Gonzalez eventually). I’ve written about Stewart before, who’s also eligible at second base in most fantasy leagues. However, Smith could be considered the slight favorite, as he posted a .950 OPS with a 46:46 K:BB ratio in Triple-A last season while also recording 11 steals without getting caught. Whoever wins the LF job qualifies as a major sleeper.
Poor Byung-Hyun Kim just can’t catch a break.
I’m not down with Aubrey Huff as an eighth round pick (ADP 89). Unquestionably, he was one of the game’s best hitters last season, and with his pedigree, the performance wasn’t completely out of the blue. However, over the previous three seasons, his best OPS was .814. With so many strong options at corner infield, let someone else bank on a 32-year-old repeating a career-year.
There’s only been one episode, but I’m already hooked on “Eastbound & Down.”
What to do with Rich Harden. On one hand, he was probably baseball’s best pitcher last season after coming to the NL. In fact, his 11.3 K/9 IP mark as a Cub would have ranked first in the league. His control isn’t great, but that’s hardly a problem when you’re fanning so many batters. Of course, Harden’s stuff has never been the issue, as his health status is already a mystery, with the word “tear” being mentioned. All pitchers have some sort of damage in their shoulder, but in this case, we are talking about someone who has never reached 190 innings in a season. Last year’s 148 innings were actually his second highest total of his career. His velocity was significantly down at the end of 2008, and it’s doubtful Billy Beane traded him for spare parts if he wasn’t sure of a future breakdown. Harden’s current ADP is 120 – ahead of Yovani Gallardo, Ricky Nolasco, Adam Wainwright and Javier Vazquez. You can get plenty of value from 130 innings from Harden and another 50 or so from a replacement level SP, but I still can’t get on board with taking him ahead of those other starters with the lower ADP. There really is significant risk here.
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