Outfield Rankings

Comments

10 responses to “Outfield Rankings”

1. 

   Dreamweapon

   February 23, 2009

   Yikes, you are hatin’ on poor Holliday this season, eh? I understand the sentiment, although I think people are slagging on him too much at this point, and he’s probably somehow become underrated in the process, making him a good buy in the second and a spectacular guy any later. In our format (pretty standard, only adding Errors on the offensive side), Holliday was the #2 overall rated FBL player last season, I kid you not. That can’t all park factor, and the Rockies’ bats apart from him really aren’t much better than the A’s’. Helton sucks, Hawpe is average, Atkins only barely above, and Tulowitzki didn’t do a whole lot last season. The Giambino is probably about as good as any of those guys, I think, and if some other things happen (like Ellis staying healthy), the A’s could be decent. I think at the end of the day he’ll be mostly impacted by a reduction in AVG due to those huge foul grounds, but unless his taters were barely clearing the fence in Colorado, his HRs should stay the same (he was down there anyway last year compared to prior seasons so there’s some elasticity built into the equation in his favor there as well). The SBs are probably the most important part of the equation since that’s where a lot of his extra value comes from, and I understand the school of thought that says the A’s don’t run much, but I think that’s maybe a little simplistic–I think they just don’t want bad base stealers running, guys with high percentages on the basepaths tend to get the green light. We’re talking about a guy with a near 80% success rate. Rajai Davis clocked 25 steals for Oakland last year in just over 200 ABs….that’s kind of mind-boggling, it’s up there in the Reyes’ stratosphere. It may be a hunch, but I think this guy is gonna be allowed to run. If that happens, I really think the big downgrade will only come in AVG, where he’ll still be .300ish, and thus remain a true five-category player. I guess I just can’t imagine taking a one-trick pony like Ellsbury over the guy. But I do understand the concerns, both as to the park and as to the league switch. One thing ppl are losing site of: isn’t this guy a mortal lock to be traded by the deadline? Wasn’t that Beane’s whole plan to begin with? How much would Holliday be worth if playing for a bona fide contender? What if he ends up with, say, Boston or New York or Atlanta?

2. 

   Donald Trump

   February 23, 2009

   Dreamweapon:
   If anything, Holiday is too high on this list. His career slugging at Coors is 645, thus he is pujols when he plays in coors. His career slg away is 455, which means he is like David DeJesus when he is away.

3. 

   Dreamweapon

   February 23, 2009

   That’s too simplistic. Home field is home field, you can’t just pretend that he suddenly has 162 away games. Or, well, you can, but I’m not buying it. He also now gets to face crappy pitching like Texas’ entire staff. There isn’t an arm in the entire AL West that compares to Lincecum, Webb, or Haren, and I would say the best one (maybe Hernandez or Lackey) is possibly about equal to Billingsley. For all the talk of Coors’ advantage (to the extent that the park was even remarkable for offensive production any longer, the post-humidor stats strongly suggest otherwise), the fact is that he also had an inordinate number of games at huge pitcher’s parks like AT&T, Petco and Dodgers Stadium. This pop-level analysis reminds me of what talking heads were saying about Teixeira going to Atlanta, how it would spell doom for his Herculean stats, league switch, no more easy Arlington production, etc….so much for that. To say that a guy who was MVP caliber for years, and remains very much in his prime, is going to fall off the face of the world just because of a relocation, is to make a logical leap the size of which would astound even Evel Kneivel. I can see marking him down a bit, but I suspect people passing on him in favor of the Ellsburys and Ichiros of the world are going to be doing some Charlie Brown-style headsmacks in a few months.

4. 

   Donald Trump

   February 23, 2009

   We shall agree to disagree until we have the facts. Lets revisit midseason.
   I am a Holliday hater.

5. 

   RotoScoop

   February 23, 2009

   I can appreciate your argument Dreamweapon. And in Billy Beane I trust. And Holliday really improved his hitting on the road last season as well. That said, it’s not just the fact he’s leaving Coors – he’s going from the league’s best hitting park to probably the game’s second toughest park on hitters. He’s also switching leagues. Maybe Oakland lets him run and he goes wild in a push during a contract year, but let’s not forget he averaged 10.5 SBs over the previous two years before last season’s 28 steal outlier.

   Hey, I’m not calling him some scrub – I think he’ll be plenty valuable, but I personally can’t see taking him over Kemp, Ellsbury or Manny. Maybe I can see taking Holliday over Crawford (I don’t have Ichiro over him, which was an example you used).

   I totally agree it’s too simplistic to just point to home/road stats; in fact, I read an analysis that showed Holliday’s performance away from home, and he got significantly better the longer the road trip was. Meaning he hit better the 2nd game away from Coors, then better the 3rd game, then better the 4th, etc. The theory was that it just took a while for players to adjust to breaking balls, since they are so different at Coors Field.

   Still, his career road OPS is .803 – that’s pretty bad.

6. 

   Saucey Toney

   February 23, 2009

   Holliday doesn’t belong in the top 15.

   Dreamweapon, you have a smally wally.

7. 

   Keith

   February 23, 2009

   I’ll gladly go on record as betting that Holliday will have better than an .803 OPS at Oakland. There should be a slight drop across the board, but I don’t anticipate it being anything overly significant. The biggest question is the thievery, as the SB’s last year were quite a jump. Like Dreamweapon said, I think the A’s get judged a bit unfairly as not being a running team, when it’s really just a strong emphasis on SB%. If Holliday can be efficient, I think he can still get 15-20 steals. The 50/50 chance (I wouldn’t call it a mortal lock) that he ends up in the heart of a contender’s lineup for the 2nd half also makes me think he’s a pretty good value this year. I’m really hoping I can get him in the 3rd round.

   All speed no power guys (Ellsbury) really scare me in general. Slight injuries that don’t take them out of the lineup can really sap their value. Is Ellsbury really that much better than Taveras?

   If Nelson Cruz is batting cleanup in Texas, I think he’s got a good chance of jumping up at least a tier.

8. 

   RotoScoop

   February 23, 2009

   I’m sure Holliday will have a higher OPS than .803 this season. And I can understand trepidation with heavy SB guys. But Ellsbury could hit 12-15 homers. 70 steals isn’t out of the question either.

9. 

   The Jewru

   February 24, 2009

   I can’t see Holiday significantly outperforming always underappreciated Bobby Abreu whom you can get 3 or 4 rounds later in most snake drafts. My prediction for Holiday is .305 20 Homers 105 Runs, 108 RBI , 15 Steals. There is an awful lot of foul territory in Oakland. I understand that that there are tons of great pitcher in the NL west but then again, they do get to pitch against the D-Backs, Giants and Padres. There are plenty of great pitchers in the AL and as far as the AL West Ervin Santana is a beast.

   I would rather have Jay Bay or Markakis than Holiday for sure.