The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

First base is probably the most loaded position, but Kendry Morales is a fine late round target. He’s failed so far in the majors, but he’s still just 25 years old and hit .341 with 15 homers and 64 RBI in 317 at-bats in Triple-A last season. It came in a hitting environment, but he doesn’t strike out a ton, and the Angels figure to hand over the starting first base job to him after Mark Teixeira left town. Morales is definitely someone to go after in AL-only leagues.

Coco Crisp is another player likely to be undervalued after three disappointing seasons in Boston. He’s unlikely to return to his 2005 form in Cleveland, but Kansas City will give him a full-time job and also likely have him leading off. The power regression is probably here to stay, but he can get on base at an OK clip, so 30 steals and 80-100 runs are possible. Over the final two months last year, he hit .341 in 123 at-bats with an impressive 18:15 K:BB ratio.

I find it quite funny how many are attributing the Cardinals’ Super Bowl run to a newly found running game and the resurgence of Edgerrin James, when in fact, the team has a lower YPC (3.3) in the postseason than they did during the regular season (3.5).

I doubt Derrek Lee ends up on any of my teams this year. He still has value hitting in the middle of the Cubs lineup, and he’s a good bet to be an asset in batting average with 8-10 steals added in. However, last year’s .823 OPS was his second lowest of the decade, and although it looked like he was finally over his wrist issues with eight homers in April, Lee hit just three home runs after July 27 and never hit more than two in any month after the All-Star break. At age 33, counting on a bounce back would be a poor bet.

Surprised to see Antonio Margarito get straight up dominated by Shane Mosley. Not only did the loss ruin future enticing matchups, but the pre-fight controversy taints Margarito’s career as well. Another big blow to the crumbling boxing industry.

I suggest avoiding Mark Reynolds altogether, no matter the discount. Sure, the power is for real, but the hit in BA just isn’t worth it. The guy hit .226 after the break last season, and it was hardly a fluke. He set the MLB record with 204 strikeouts – which amounts to one K every 2.64 at-bats. Good thing his career BABIP is .353 or he wouldn’t be breaking the Mendoza Line. Stay far away.

I was tempted to rank Victor Martinez as my No. 1 fantasy catcher this year, and he’s certainly a top-3 option in my view. It’s often best to target the catcher coming off an injury riddled year over the one who was successful yet worked hard the previous season, as the position is the most daunting in baseball. Martinez’s train wreck of a campaign in 2008 can be directly related to injuries, and he proved he still has plenty left in his bat with a solid September. This is someone who averaged 21 homers, 99 RBI and a .302 BA over the previous four seasons before last year. Kelly Shoppach’s emergence can also be viewed as a good thing, as Martinez could be asked to play more first base and DH, as his bat will always be in the lineup one way or the other and less work behind the plate will keep him fresher and healthier. I’d certainly feel safer taking him over the dangerously overused Russell Martin.

I’m finished touting Delmon Young as the next big thing. It’s clear he can maintain a fine batting average despite his free swinging ways, and it’s possible he even ups his SB total to 20-plus this season, but his complete lack of power really limits his upside, despite his raw tools. Last year’s 10 homers should not be considered a fluke considering his 1.23 G/F rate. In fact, if you remove line drives, he hit an astonishing 1.98 groundballs for every fly ball. He was a bit unlucky with just 7.6 percent of his fly balls going for homers (he puts more balls in play than most because he rarely walks), but that’s commensurate with his career, so no big uptick should be counted on. It’s possible he finally lives up to his perceived potential, as he’s still just 23, but he’s not a top-50 OF option as of now.

For a good laugh, check out Richard Justice’s recent article about Brad Ausmus. A quick excerpt: “The Astros have had some good players through the years…They’ve never quite had one as valuable to the franchise as Brad Ausmus. This guy was all about winning…Some of you will quibble about his individual stats. All you’re doing is showing how little you know about baseball.” Truly mind-boggling.

I’m perennially disappointed, but I wouldn’t mind gambling yet again on Hank Blalock. You simply can’t go into the season relying on him as your starting third baseman with all the injury concerns, but there’s still significant upside. He’s posted an .871 OPS in between injuries over the past two seasons, and when he finally got healthy during the final month of last year, he hit .337 with eight homers and 23 RBI. With that ballpark and hitting in the middle of a potent Texas lineup both on his side, some big numbers could be in store for the 28-year-old still entering his prime. The fact he’s slated to DH this season should help keep him healthy as well.

Sticking with the Rangers, few closers are better targets than Frank Francisco. Of course, there’s risk with his relative lack of track record and poor command, but he’s extremely tough to hit, holding opponents to a .200 BAA in 2008. Finally healthy after undergoing TJ surgery three years ago, Francisco posted an incredible 11.84 K/9 IP mark last season. After the All-Star break, he recorded a 2.45 ERA and 0.74 WHIP with a 38:6 K:BB ratio over 25.2 innings.


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12 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. The Jewru Avatar
    The Jewru

    I love Crisp as a sleeper as well. They should let him run with reckless abandon and I also see a 10-30 season with a close to .300 average.

    I will take Mauer everytime as my number one catcher. He really could hit .350 in a season and to have such a boost in the average category from a position which usually drains it is great.

    Devine is the closer I am hoping to get as my number in all leagues. Look at his stats last year. Twenty three hits in 45 innings, .59 ERA small sample size but I would rather have a closer pitching in an extreme pitchers park as opposed to an extreme hitters park like Texas. Francisco sure has nasty stuff however.

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Jewru – No argument here about Mauer. And I’m very high on Devine – I have him ranked ahead of F. Francisco. I planned on writing about him soon. Last year he finished with the lowest ERA in the history of major league baseball. Ziegler doesn’t stand a chance if Devine stays healthy.

  3. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Haha, I could not agree more on Reynolds. My home dynasty league is a 6×6 including the usual 5×5 plus Holds and, gasp, Errors. I’m not a huge fan of the category at all, but it’s been in place since before I was in the league and it’s not going to go away, so I’ve learned to live with it and turn it to my advantage.

    Anyway, did you know that Reynolds’ 34 errors last season appear to be the second-most by any player in a single year in this decade? Only Jose Valentin’s 36 in 2000 was worse, and those came at shortstop. Pretty incredible, no? I figured this out as I was doing a little research, trying to make a point to another owner in the league (a good friend of mine, no less)–he had a horrible year last year and is stuck with rotten keepers for this season, including Reynolds. I tried to sell this guy that Reynolds simply cannot be played in that format, as he is demonstrably costing his fantasy team wins. I mean, my entire team only had 86 combined errors on the entire season, spread across 12 active batting positions! Reynolds’ adjusted value on the ESPN Player Rater in our format was a NEGATIVE 1.36. Yes, -1.36. In other words, he had no value at all if taken as part of a contextual whole, but rather was an albatross about the neck of his owner. Insane! So I tried to tell him that he should dump Reynolds and the overrated Duchscherer in exchange for my castoff extras Huff and Lidge (or Baker or Josh Johnson, I don’t care), for the low, low price of prospect rights to any of his farmhands, including the crappy Felix Pie. Seems like a clear win for him, but I don’t care, my team in that league is an absolute leviathan (I finished last year ranked either 1st or 2nd in 9 out of 12 cats and will be returning at least 8 guys typically taken in the first two rounds, plus other “lesser” lights like Kemp, Liriano and Cain…and, oh yeah, my own farm system already includes Wieters, Price, Gallardo and Maybin, among others) and I wasn’t going to be able to make room for Huff and co. anyway. I just wanted Pie or some other crappy Minor Leaguer to use as a chit in an in-season trade. He blew me off! Can you believe it? Haha, oh well. I guess he’ll enjoy finishing somewhere around 4-18 again this year while I defend my title. Hey, someone has to prop up the kitty.

    Anyway, long story short, Reynolds sucks in general, but if you’re in a league counting Errors, he’s absolutely radioactive. He basically makes Miguel Cabrera look like Ozzie Smith.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I did not know that was the 2nd most errors of the decade. What a liability. Ya that makes no sense for that guy to not deal with you. Reynolds blows.

  5. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Great stuff. God, baseball is great.
    I love devine as well. Loved him with the braves.
    Agreed on coco crisp. He is totally going under the radar, and should be as good as jonny ‘traitor’ damon.
    I disagree on vmart. Even in his good september he only slugged .475. Put a fork in him.
    I’ll have to think about kendry morales. Could be a sneaky end of draft guy. Although I am def targeting blaylock. Dude mashed when healthy last year.
    Where are we on ricky weeks this year? I can’t believe I just said that.

  6. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Dude, even I am off the Rickie bandwagon, and considering I was holding the reins on that motherfucker 12 months ago, that’s saying something. If you get him in the 18th or 20th or whatever, fine, hey, you never know, but I wouldn’t go high on him. At some point even gluttons for punishment get worn out.

    I’m kind of terrified of V-Mart too. What do ppl think of Napoli? I’m hearing more ABs this year, and he was looking pretty nifty last year….

  7. Saucey Toney Avatar
    Saucey Toney

    I recording da demo in the studiudio on Monday!

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald – Horrible trade by the Braves (Devine for Kotsay). Score another one for Beane.

    I wouldn’t put a fork in VMart. He was injured last year and is 30 years old – hardly ancient.

    Right now, I have Weeks ranked as my No. 10 second baseman – just ahead of Kelly Johnson and right behind Howie Kendrick.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – I hear ya with Rickie Weeks. Expectations need to be severely lowered.

    I like Napoli. Lot of power. Hopefully Jeff Mathis doesn’t get too much playing time. I view Napoli as easily a top-10 catcher option.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Saucey Toney – Can’t wait to hear it. Send a copy my way.

  11. Nat Avatar
    Nat

    Yeah, I’m with you on Vmart. That guy can rake and he is conveniently underrated. I expect to see him on every one of my teams this year. And Martin on none. I’d take McCann over him, but I’d probably let someone else take Mauer a round or two earlier. Catcher seems generally deep and unpredictable this year.

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    I will talk about this, but I agree – catcher is deeper than usual this year. It’s OK to wait on the position.

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