The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Last Thursday’s Broncos/Browns tilt was easily one of the best games of the season. I don’t care if purists disagree, offense is just more fun. Jay Cutler has the guts of a burglar. It’s true at times he’s a little too Brett Favre in his risks, but he also makes throws that no other current quarterback can. He has an excellent mix of zip yet also the ability to float lobs into the right place. His one pick was Brandon Marshall’s fault, not his…Brady Quinn didn’t play poorly, but the normally spot on Chris Collinsworth was a little hyperbolic in his praise of the young QB. Quinn attempted just one pass that went 15-plus yards through the air, which was incomplete. It’s nice he didn’t make any mistakes, but that Denver D is the worst, and his 6.8 YPA was unimpressive. With this dink and dunk approach, Braylon Edwards’ already low fantasy value might be crushed. Bump up Kellen Winslow, however…Did everyone enjoy the Ryan Torain era as much as me? After excessive hype despite never playing and being just a fifth round draft pick, Torain looked like the second coming of Jim Brown for 20 minutes. Then, his knee bent the wrong way. It’s safe to call the kid talented, yet too injury prone to ever really matter.

Windy conditions didn’t help, but to call Rex Grossman inaccurate would be an understatement. And again, why are teams attacking Cortland Finnegan? His reputation clearly hasn’t caught up to his play yet…Then again, even Vegas and the oddsmakers have been extremely slow to the Titans’ party all season long…It’s crazy how many rookie running backs are having a great season, and none of them are Darren McFadden, Jonathan Stewart, or Rashard Mendenhall.

It’s great that Jacksonville can beat up and bully doormats, but this team is deeply flawed, evidenced by allowing a staggering 11.0 YPA to the Daunte Culpepper/Drew Stanton duo…It’s possible Kevin Smith is a difference maker in fantasy leagues down the stretch…There won’t be a better time to try and trade Maurice Jones-Drew than after last week’s effort.

I’d try to avoid the Baltimore backfield at all costs. That’s a mess from week-to-week…John Harbaugh has done a terrific job replacing that preening schmo Brian Billick and deserves serious Coach of the Year consideration…Sage Rosenfels is capable and can move the ball, but his tendency to turn the ball over is a killer. Hopefully all that silly talk about him being better than Matt Schaub can be put to rest for good now.

Michael Wilbon is an idiot. He said on PTI Tuesday that the Tim Lincecum Cy Young choice was horrible, and he would have him fourth or fifth on his list. He would have voted for Brandon Webb because of his 22 wins. He also had Brad Lidge ahead of Lincecum. Webb wasn’t even the best pitcher on his own team and wouldn’t factor into my top-10. As my blood boils, I’ll try not to let this lunacy ruin a beautiful moment: congrats Lincecum! The voters got something right for once.

The AFC East is really interesting right now, as the Bills continue to fade while the Pats continue to improve. Also, the Jets’ defensive line makes them noteworthy. And it wouldn’t be out of line to call the Dolphins the best team in that division…Go ahead and put this down in ink – bench Lee Evans when he’s facing New England…Bill Belichick is underrated. Seriously, think about all the massive failures who have left New England: Romeo Crennel, Charlie Weiss and to some extent, Eric Mangini. It’s all Belichick.

Marques Colston is back. Consider him a top-10 fantasy wideout from here on out…The Giants absolutely ripped off the Saints in the Jeremy Shockey trade.  I know he’s been hobbled, but what else is new? How is he averaging the fewest yards per catch of his career playing in that offense and with Drew Brees throwing to him? He’s much better at limping and bitching to his own quarterback then he is at playing football…Matt Ryan is a top-5 QB in the NFL RIGHT NOW. If starting a franchise from scratch with every player in the league available, the only person I’d even consider taking ahead of Ryan would be Jay Cutler. Therefore, I view Ryan as the second most valuable commodity in the NFL.

Chad Pennington’s interception returned for a touchdown was atrocious. Up 14-0, ball security should probably be at the forefront, so a late throw across the field to the sideline was uncalled for…I actually like Miami’s squad, but this team is bad when it comes to special teams and tackling. The Wildcat can still be effective, though…The Seattle offense won’t be so dreadful with Matt Hasselbeck returning, but it’s still a situation to mostly avoid in fantasy leagues.

Adrian Peterson is far from a complete back since his hands are so poor, and he’s still a big injury risk, but with the football in his hands, there’s an argument he’s the best running back ever. Currently, he might be the NFL’s best short-yardage runner and breakaway threat – quite a rare combination. And Minnesota’s offensive line hasn’t opened up nearly as many holes as the unit did last season. I’m not a religious man, but in Purple Jesus, I trust…The Vikings’ special teams and coaching are a joke, but they have become a bit more interesting since the defensive line has started to develop a serious pass rush…The refs flat-out blew that first safety call. In fact, once they realized it wasn’t intentional grounding, they termed the penalty an “illegal forward pass.” That’s laughable.

One of my favorite moments Sunday was when the Rams sent out the field goal team to cut the Jets’ third quarter lead to 40-3. A crucial decision indeed…I have no idea what the contract details are, but I’d have a hard time seeing St. Louis not cut, or at least renegotiate, with Marc Bulger this offseason…I won’t be drafting Steven Jackson next year. He’ll still look good enough to have people talking themselves into making him a first round pick, but this guy simply can’t stay healthy. This much we know…You won’t see a weaker QB statline during a 47-3 win than Brett Favre’s last week…Imagine how good this Jets’ defensive line would be if the team hadn’t wasted last year’s sixth pick in the draft.

Jake Delhomme was just brutal Sunday. I would say it was tough to watch, but the game was blacked out in my area thanks to incompetence…The Raiders lost despite having more yards, first downs, takeaways and nearly a 15 minute edge in time of possession…Can’t wait to see what Joey Porter does against Kwame Harris next week…Quietly, DeAngelo Williams is having a very solid year…If starting a franchise, I’d make Nnamdi Asomugha the first defensive player taken. I understand it seems a little crazy since Oakland’s defense is so bad, and for the most part, I’d value guys on the line far more than a defensive back. Elite pass rushers demand double teams, and a guy like Albert Haynesworth definitely deserves consideration since he both stuffs the run and gets to the quarterback. However, there are at least 15 dominant defensive lineman, whereas there isn’t another corner in the league within a mile of Asomugha’s skill set, making him a unique property.  He literally takes away half the field on every single snap.

The Steelers may have given up 24 points last week, but it certainly wasn’t the defense’s fault. The team allowed just 6.0 YPA and 3.3 YPC, but too often a Ben Roethlisberger turnover left them with a short field to defend. Roethlisberger is really struggling right now, and one wonders whether he should sit out until fully healthy…With a playoff schedule featuring the Bengals, Lions and Jaguars, and Marvin Harrison having one foot in the grave, Anthony Gonzalez could be a major factor in fantasy leagues when it matters most…I wouldn’t call Indy’s win a “they’re back” type victory, but with a terrific pass defense and the upside of that passing offense, they still represent a potential threat…I’ve heard more than once how the absence of Willie Parker has hurt Pittsburgh, but that’s erroneous. Very few running situations in the NFL would be greatly impacted by the starter going down (49ers being the best example), and the Steelers certainly aren’t one of them.

Jamaal Charles was looking at a highly productive game Sunday had he not aggravated his ankle injury during his first touch. Now with the backfield so depleted, Kansas City has no choice but to welcome Larry Johnson back with open arms. If he can avoid incarceration, LJ could be a major fantasy factor down the stretch with fresh legs and a suddenly potent Chiefs offense…Like Darren McFadden and his toe injury, Chris Chambers should just sit out until his ankle fully heals. I’m all for toughness, but what good does it do to play at 60 percent and never let the injury truly heal?…Tyler Thigpen is clearly the answer at quarterback for Kansas City. He can play. Mark Bradley possesses serious talent as well. Just like that, the Chiefs have a very intriguing young nucleus…You think LaDainian Tomlinson looks slowed this season, wait until next year. I won’t be recommending him as a top-50 pick in 2009. It may not be Shaun Alexander, 2007, but it could approach that territory.

Any team can win any given week, but last Sunday’s line (Philadelphia -3) in the Eagles/Giants game was the most dumbfounding I’ve seen all year. Really, those two teams are equal? The Eagles are paper tigers. That game wasn’t nearly as close as the final score indicated. Philadelphia shouldn’t be mentioned in the same breath as this dominant New York team…I had no idea that rule existed regarding Eli Manning’s near past the line of scrimmage throw. Interesting.

Johnny Drama has somehow transformed from one of my favorite characters to the most loathsome one currently on TV. Seriously, Californication is better than Entourage.

Shaun Hill made some boneheaded decisions Monday night, and his 5.4 YPA mark left a lot to be desired, but he also made some plays as well. He’s fine to start in fantasy leagues this week at home against the Rams…Not sure what happened to Tim Hightower, but I wouldn’t panic. He still seems like a top-15 fantasy back…In Jason Hill and Josh Morgan, San Francisco has some young receivers with upside…Everyone is criticizing the 49ers for the Michael Robinson run to end the game, but I thought their decision to call a run on second down with 20 seconds left and no timeouts was equally as bad. Just a horribly incompetent finish to an otherwise entertaining game.

My new favorite player in the NBA: Rudy Fernandez – “Rudy is not everyday a shooter,” Fernandez said. “He’s defense. He’s passes. He’s assists.” As awesome as that third person quote was, it didn’t bring me as much joy as reading that Edinson Volquez finished fourth in the NL Rookie of the Year race. And yet, he’s not a rookie! Just fantastic work by the BBWAA all around. That’s almost as good as when Rafael Palmeiro won a Gold Glove for playing 28 games in the field in 1999.

Everyone is killing the Marlins for the Scott Olsen/Josh Willingham trade, and while I agree they should have been able to get more in return, I’m not very high on either of those players’ futures at all. Olsen’s 4.20 ERA last season came with an ugly strikeout rate and a brutal 1.6:1 K:BB ratio. He’s also completely lost his fastball. Good luck sustaining that .266 BABIP. Willingham’s career OPS is .833, so left fielders like him are a dime a dozen. It’s frustrating watching Florida having to make so many decisions based on payroll, but with a staff featuring Ricky Nolasco, Josh Johnson, Anibal Sanchez, Andrew Miller and Chris Volstad, they will be contenders for years to come.

When I first heard about the Matt Holliday trade, my instinct was: “What in the hell is Billy Beane thinking?” So, naturally, Michael Wilbon and Rick Reilly go off on PTI about how much of a steal it was for the A’s. We are talking about a corner outfielder with an .803 career OPS outside of Coors Field. He’s improved in recent years away from home, but with Oakland’s payroll and Holliday about to hit free agency, it’s essentially a one-year rental. Still, I’m not big on questioning the brilliant Beane, so here’s my now revised thinking: Greg Smith’s peripherals were way out of whack with his 4.16 ERA, so he’s a nothing. Huston Street is a health risk and isn’t even the best reliever on the A’s. Also, while his component stats are pretty, he has been poor during save situations throughout his career. Carlos Gonzalez, however, is quite interesting. He could be the one true regret Beane let go. However, his horrible strikeout rate and inability to take a walk never really fit with the A’s, and he’ll only be an asset against right-handers. Beane must think either a) he’ll be able to get a better return than he just gave up at the trade deadline, when teams often become far more desperate or b) the A’s are ready to contend, and he’s happy to receive the draft picks with Holliday being a Type A free agent.


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22 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    I’m glad I didn’t see Wilbon making an ass of himself, I probably would have had an aneurysm while screaming at the TV. What a tard. Suffice it to say, I’m shocked to learn that Kornheiser may not even be the dumb one in that duo. THAT is an accomplishment. Nice one, ESPN. Maybe now their corporate cousin ABC can bring us some sex-charged drama duo where Kathy Bates is the hot one.

    Grossman’s play presents an excellent opportunity to criticize the Bears’ coaches. They probably weren’t going to win that SB regardless, but would Orton or anyone else have at least given them a prayer? I mean, Trent Dilfer and Brad Johnson both won, right? Why did they hang onto Grossman for so long, and foreclose any possibility of an open competition? It was truly one of the strangest coronations I ever saw, and maybe it cost them a SB. And the situation wasn’t anything like Green Bay in last year’s playoffs–Favre did make the throw that sealed his team’s fate in OT of the NFC championship game (a time-honored Favre tradition, admittedly), and maybe they would’ve won with Rodgers at the helm, but of course that wasn’t really an option b/c Favre is Favre. Grossman never should have been more than 2 or 3 ugly picks away from the pine at any moment in time, yet they treated him like he was the Second Coming of Johnny friggin’ Unitas. For years! Rex Grossman makes “Champagne” Joey Harrington look like an All-Pro.

    As much as I do think Weis and Crennel do probably suck, it might be a situational thing with NE. After all, Belichick himself was a flameout in Cleveland….

    Have to agree on Olsen/Willingham. Olsen had one fine year, and has been in free-fall on and off the field ever since. I just have no time for that kind of miserable K/9, and he’s supposedly one of the biggest tools in the game. That said, he’s probably the Nats’ staff ace already…. Willingham, meh, whatever. If he still caught, it would be one thing, but he’s just a guy.

    Never liked ‘Entourage’ at all, and not just because I despise ostentatious displays of wealth and privilege, and starfuckers, generally, but because I hate every character/actor on that show except Piven. It’s awesome that the Ari character is based on the real-life brother of Rahm Emanuel, but all of those other guys grate. ‘Flight of the Conchords’ cannot return soon enough, there’s practically no reason to pay for HBO right now as it is.

    Re: Holliday–Having just dealt for him a week back in my home dynasty league, I threw up in my mouth upon reading that news yesterday. Only San Diego could possibly be worse. He just lost at least a full third of his HR production, and knowing the A’s, probably 80% of his steals. Suck. Am I wrong to hold out hope that Beane was simply souring on Gonzalez and selling high on the kid? And that, not wanting Holliday exposed as a park-dependent myth of sorts and have his trade value lessened, will proceed to move him to the Dodgers or Dbacks this offseason yet? After all, both are contenders, and both are about to lose their power LFs, right? That he’s just acting as the middleman b/c Colorado can’t directly send Holliday to a division rival? Sigh.

  2. The Jewru Avatar
    The Jewru

    Heard Wilbon bashing Timmy and had similar thoughts in my head. Aren’t media types supposed to check stats before speaking. When he mentioned the 22 wins that Webb had I realized that folks on this site should be doing these jobs.

    Holiday is DONE!! I am looking forward to see who takes him in the first round next year.

  3. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – I like what you did with the Kathy Bates/Tony Kornheiser analogy. Well done sir…Yeah, Kyle Orton can’t return soon enough. I admit, I’m surprised he’s played so well, but that’s a good point about Chicago sticking with Grossman for far too long…Belichick was a flameout, but clearly he gets it now. Isn’t the situational thing in NE because of Belichick? I mean, Pioli is good too, but still…Trust me, you aren’t missing much with Entourage. Agreed about Conchords. About HBO, I’m actually really into “True Blood,” but more in the it’s so bad, it’s good kind of way.

    It’s entirely possible that’s Beane’s plan. But I’d say it’s the third most likely scenario behind the two I laid out. You better hope I’m wrong.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Jewru – It really is annoying that the dumber the person, the bigger the platform they seem to have in this day and age. Wilbon acted so confident in his claims, yet was just so, so wrong in his reasoning. It’s embarrassing, really. Would be hilarious to get into a debate over him on that topic. He can’t be more wrong. Lidge was more valuable too? Ugh.

    I’ll avoid Holliday like the plague this upcoming season.

  5. Donand Trump Avatar
    Donand Trump

    What do you think about Licecum, fantasy wise next year, considering that he threw 50 more innings than his previous high, and was second in the mlb with 3688 pitches (second to the much abused CC). Please leave your SF loyalty at the door when answering. Are you gonna give me all that ‘rubber arm’ stuff?

    Dreamweapon: why on earth would you have traded for holliday a week ago? Regardless of where he was to be dealt, his value was going to plummet being outside of coors.

  6. Tyler Durden Avatar
    Tyler Durden

    Great column.

    Being a Browns fan, the DEN/CLE tilt, while entertaining, was hard to swallow. Wilbon is a idiot — Tim deserved that award hands down. I scratch my head when I lament on Belichick’s time in Cleveland. I just don’t get it. Crennel is a dead man walking though. I am starting to wonder if Bill Coward will be the next coach of the Browns.

    Completely agree about Entourage & Drama. Painful to watch. I think I mentioned it before, but if you have not watched the entire run of The Wire, run to a store and get those five season. Best TS show ever. Hands down.

  7.  Avatar
    Anonymous

    I would completely agree on Lincecum > Webb and Lidge. But I think you are seriously underestimating Lidge’s value. I’ve heard some sabermatricians calling him the ‘no doubt’ MVP and displaying the stats to back it up.

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald – No, I’m definitely concerned about Lincecum next year. No doubt. Bochy abused him. Now, there’s a chance the unique delivery truly does put less stress on his arm and makes him more durable (I mean, he never even ices his arm, only his knees), but odds are he’s going down eventually. I wouldn’t avoid him altogether, or aggressively try to trade him away in a keeper league, but at the same time, I probably won’t be recommending him as a first round pick. There’s def. reason to be cautious. I did a draft with some bloggers about a month ago, and I ended up taking him late in the 2nd round – there’s risk, but that seemed like decent value to me.

  9. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Tyler Durden – Crennel is most def. a goner. You’d have to be happy with Cower, right? Oh I’ve watched all of The Wire. For sure the best TV show ever.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Anonymous – No offense, but whoever that sabermatrician was is crazy. Lidge had a terrific season, better than K-Rod even, but I can’t see putting a reliever even in my top-10. There’s absolutely no way Lidge was more valuable than even his own teammate, Cole Hamels, this season. One threw 227 innings, the other threw 69! Also, 99 percent of the time Lidge was on the mound, he entered the game with no base runners on and with the lead.

  11. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Anonymous – Hey, good call with Baltimore last week.

  12. Donand Trump Avatar
    Donand Trump

    bro, if you are buying lincecum in the 2nd round, he’s got you hook, line, and sinker. That is not applying much of a discount. Injury risk is one, but wins risk is antoher… no way he gets near 18 in 2009.

    My reaction to the holliday trade was that billy thought he could get a return at the trade deadline in 2009.

  13. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Donald – Really? You expect Lincecum to go after the top-25 picks in drafts come March? It’s possible, but I don’t see how he’s not the first pitcher off the board. Maybe Johan. Again, I’m not recommending him and I do have serious concerns about his health, but I don’t think late second is a reach.

    Billy must not like Gonzalez. The A’s seem 2-3 years away from contending, not this upcoming year. But maybe he’ll be allowed to spend more.

  14. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Trump: in part because I thought there was a decent chance he would go to a better team (Philly, Tampa, LAD, Arizona, e.g.) in which case his value wouldn’t be impacted a whole lot (esp. Az, it’s basically the same environment as Col anyway) and possibly even go up. And his splits were better last year than in years past, and most players are better at home than away so it wasn’t unreasonable that he’d still be an elite player. And I had a horde of excess guys I wasn’t going to be able to keep on my roster going into next season for lack of space, and Holliday was the only first-round type whose owner was willing to move him. But most of all, because I was bored. Oakland is the worst possible scenario, but I’m hoping it’s temporary. If not, I’ll try to move him elsewhere for a couple of big name prospects and hold Aubrey Huff instead, it’s not inconceivable I could move him for the prospect rights to Kershaw and Moose Tacos, so long as I do it before the season begins and it becomes clear he’s on pace for a 22 HR, 6 SB year.

  15. Stevie Ya Yo Avatar
    Stevie Ya Yo

    “Paper tigers,” eh? Great phrasing! Heh.

  16. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ah, sorry if I stole that term from you without giving credit. (You called your own team that in the RotoScoop league). It’s a perfect way to describe Philly tho, who are far more paper tigers than your team. Also a great Beck song.

  17. Donand Trump Avatar
    Donand Trump

    No doubt Lincecum is one of the best pitchers, but for me, way too much injury risk, and way too much ‘wins’ risk.

  18. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Predicting run support from pitcher to pitcher is impossible, but I hear you – SF’s offense should be brutal once again.

  19. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Haha, the phrase was “stolen” from anyone, it was Mao, speaking in reference to perceived U.S. imperialism in the 50s. Which of course led to Khrushchev’s delightful rejoineder that even if so, it had “nuclear teeth”.

    I’m flashing back to Richard Lewis trying to get into Bartlett’s Quotations for supposedly coining “the _______ from hell” right now. [g]

  20. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    The funny thing about that Richard Lewis phrase is that it wasn’t just made up for the brilliant Curb episode, I believe Lewis actually claims he really did coin that phrase in real life.

  21. Stevie Ya Yo Avatar
    Stevie Ya Yo

    Not my term at all; just liked that I was able to influence your vocab. Google says it’s the first time you’ve ever used the phrase! 🙂

    It’s a game I like to play. At my last corporate gig, I knew that HR had betrayed my trust when my boss used the term “outlier” for the first time — the very term that I used in my confidential written rejoinder to the only mediocre performance review I’d ever received!

    Oh yeah — Is Cassel this good, or are the Jets this bad?

    And is Seabiscuit an injury risk because of his mechanics, the PAPs he racked up this past season, or both?

  22. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Cassel continues to improve and has a good system on his side, but the Jets can be passed on, and his stats were bloated b/c they got down big early and went no-huddle. This was more aberration than a sign of big things to come from Cassel is my guess.

    I think by now, we have to consider Lincecum’s mechanics a PLUS. Seems to use his legs to generate torque much more than his arm itself. While unorthodox, I think his dad knew what he was doing. Remember, Mark Prior’s mechanics appeared flawless to all, so this is an inexact science. It’s the huge innings increase and high pitch counts that have me terrified.

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