By Dalton Del Don
Last week I went 7-9, which wasn’t unexpected since I had a difficult time making the picks. At least my best bet came through, bringing my season record there to 2-0-1. Overall, my record sits at 24-22-1. I normally go against road favorites but went with the Broncos, the Chargers and the Eagles this week, mainly because I see them as three of the best teams in the league.
Falcons +7 at Panthers – Although both of their victories have come at home against weak competition, there’s no doubting the Falcons are a much improved team this year. In fact, Michael Turner leads the NFL with 366 rushing yards, and John Abraham paces the league with six sacks, but this team will struggle in games they have to play from behind, which should happen Sunday. While the Falcons will go run-first, Carolina is allowing just 3.9 YPC on the year and has yet to allow a run of 20-plus yards. Expect a big game from Jonathan Stewart and the Panthers’ defense to harass Matt Ryan.
Broncos -10 at Chiefs – This is a sucker bet. I changed it to Denver at the last second and am regretting it. 94 percent of the public is siding with the Broncos, but it’s a division game on the road, and Damon Huard is a clear upgrade over Tyler Thigpen. Still, I’ll stand by the pick, despite Denver’s worrisome defense. Their offense is right on par with last year’s record-setting Patriots through three weeks.
49ers +5.5 at Saints – I’m not too worried about all the New Orleans receivers going down, and they will be focused coming off a loss. Reggie Bush has been targeted (32) the second most times in the league this season, including wide receivers. However, the 49ers are no joke; they have a net YPA of 3.6!
Cardinals +1 at Jets – Most are writing off the Cardinals as the same old squad they always are – great passing game but weak everywhere else. Actually, they have the 8th ranked defense and are well coached, so they look like a playoff team to me. The Jets, on the other hand, certainly do not. Still, this is one of those games where you go with feel, and New York probably wins it undeservingly because they are at home and need a victory more. Also, the decision by the Cardinals to stay on the east coast this week after losing in Washington last Sunday, creating a nine-day layover, was probably a mistake
Vikings +3 at Titans (best bet) – There might not be two more similar teams in the NFL, as both enter starting backup quarterbacks with dominant running games and terrific defenses. Still, that doesn’t make them equal. The Vikings may be more desperate than the undefeated Titans, but I can’t see their offense doing much of anything this week. Tennessee is holding opponents to a 45.7 QB rating with a 1:7 TD:INT ratio.
Packers +1 at Buccaneers – Green Bay has too much offensive firepower for the Bucs to hang here. The Packers have allowed the most YPC (5.7) of any team in football, so don’t expect another 67 pass attempts from Brian Griese. But Tampa Bay is due for a letdown, and Green Bay is one of the better teams in the NFC.
Texans +8 at Jaguars – The Texans will be playing their third straight road game to open the season, and they come in with an extremely disappointing 25th ranked offense. Part of the problem has been the red zone, where Houston has converted just 3-of-9 trips inside the 20 into touchdowns, ranking 28th in the league. Jacksonville should have continued success running the football, as Houston has allowed 4.5 YPC and a whopping five rushing scores over its first two games. Still, Matt Schaub and Andre Johnson are certainly capable of playing much better.
Browns +3.5 at Bengals – The Bengals played well last week, taking the defending Super Bowl champs into overtime. Still, they are currently 0-3, battling an equally desperate Cleveland squad that’s also yet to win. While Carson Palmer figures to improve after his rough start, the defense remains a big problem, as the unit has recorded an NFL-low one sack on the year. The defense continues to struggle, but no one expected the Browns to have the 30th ranked rushing offense and the 31st ranked passing attack, even if their schedule hasn’t done them any favors. However, in a matchup so close, do you really want to give points?
Chargers -8 at Raiders – Another road favorite and against a Raider team that’s played highly competitive football over the past two weeks to boot. But things could get ugly if JaMarcus Russell is asked to throw more than 20 times, and Darren McFadden is banged up. The Chargers offense is elite, with Philip Rivers emerging as an MVP candidate, so that looks like the likely scenario.
Bills -8.5 at Rams – With a 31st ranked offense and a 32nd ranked defense, it doesn’t get worse than the Rams’ start to the season. But the Bills aren’t used to being prohibitive favorites, and St. Louis is about as desperate as a franchise can be. Trent Green can be nothing but an upgrade considering the way Marc Bulger has played since 2006, and 77 percent of the public is backing the Bills.
Redskins +11.5 at Cowboys – Dallas enters with the No. 1 rated offense in football, and they catch a break playing Washington without Jason Taylor (calf). Dating back to last year, Tony Romo has thrown an interception in 12 of his last 13 games. Still, all those big plays and his current 9.7 YPA mark more than make up for it. Dallas’ offense is far too much for Washington to handle, despite Jason Campbell’s modest signs of growth.
Eagles -3 at Bears – A run-first Bears team has a tough task facing an Eagles defense that has allowed an NFL-low 2.4 YPC and recorded an NFL-high 13 sacks on the season. Brian Westbrook (ankle) looks unlikely to play, which is a blow, but Donovan McNabb has been performing at such a high level, the offense will be fine. Expect a low scoring affair, with Philadelphia’s ability to create turnovers on defense the difference maker.
Ravens +7 at Steelers – Baltimore comes in with the No. 1 ranked defense, a solid ground game and with a perfect 2-0 record. However, rookie Joe Flacco will be making his first ever start on the road, and the 30th ranked passing offense may be asked to do more than usual, since Pittsburgh is capable of putting points on the board. In a battle featuring the league’s top-two rated defenses, expect a slugfest, but once Pittsburgh jumps out to a lead, Baltimore is in trouble.
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