Don’t Give Up, Don’t Ever Give Up

I’ve done my fair share of bragging, so I wanted to go a different route today. On the “Ask An Expert” feature on RotoWire, I frequently get questions from people stating some sort of variation of “my team is tanking, this is my roster, should I start preparing for fantasy football?” Well, I could be asking myself the same question, as my team in my home league currently resides in dead last more than two months into the season. I’ve pretty much been there from the beginning, and I’m 61.5 points out of first place. Right now, the baseball season is approximately 38 percent finished, so the “it’s still early” excuse no longer flies.

No one wants to hear about my specific fantasy team, but in this case, I want to use my example to highlight a broader point, which is not to throw in the towel, no matter how bleak your current situation looks. I currently have a 1 in both ERA and WHIP. Here is some of my staff: Matt Cain, Chris Young, Brett Myers, Ted Lilly, Derek Lowe, Johnny Cueto, Pedro Martinez, Max Scherzer, Joe Saunders and Jonathan Sanchez. Now, it’s possible that group finishes with a 15 (its current total) in a standard 5X5 league, but I’d say the odds are greater they triple that score by season’s end than staying put.

Now, this doesn’t apply to keeper-leagues the same way; I recently lost David Ortiz, John Smoltz and Nick Johnson to injury in an 18-team keeper format, and I’ll now be looking toward next year (you hear me Staff League 1?). Again, my main point was bigger than my specific team, and maybe I’m overly optimistic in that regard, but really, it’s crazy to give up right now. Last year when June began, Ryan Braun was hitting .222/.214/.370 with one homer; he was a consensus top-15 pick in 2008. In Yahoo standard scoring leagues, Ryan Ludwick and Xavier Nady are currently top-25 ranked hitters. Shaun Marcum, Joe Saunders, Ryan Dempster and Justin Duchscherer are top-25 pitchers, all trailing No. 1 ranked Edinson Volquez.

If you are behind the eight ball and down in the standings, that just means you need to be extra diligent with pickups, lineup decisions and be sure not to make panic trades. And if you have trouble with this in your league by other members – that is, owners who completely neglect their team because of slow starts – one method of correcting this other than kicking them out is to deploy a tiered payout system. Increase your league entry fee, but make the payouts go to 80 percent of the league, giving incentive to those fighting for 5th-10th place. But I for one am not playing for 5th place. Don’t give up, don’t ever give up.


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6 responses to “Don’t Give Up, Don’t Ever Give Up”

  1. Poincare Avatar
    Poincare

    Nice article Dalton. It’s always a pleasure reading your work.

    Now, if you were in my shoes in staff league 2 what would your strategy be? Eagerly awaiting your response.

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Thanks. Keeper leagues are a little different in that there is legitimate incentive to change game plans if this year truly looks out of reach. However, I think that’s often an excuse to give up too early and the “rebuild” plan is overused.

    In your specific case, you are in 4th place and within 10 points from 1st place – a clear player. Personally, I’d aggressively try to win it.

    Here’s a little theory that most people seem to not realize in keeper leagues. If you trade a minor league prospect, an aspect often overlooked is the fact you are opening up a spot for next year. So the trade can’t really be evaluated until you use that roster spot to draft a different minor leaguer the next year.

  3. randy Avatar
    randy

    hi, what do you think of eric bedard for verlander in my keeper league——thanks

  4. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Given your professed love for the broadcast stylings of Emmitt Smith, shouldn’t this post be titled “Don’t Give Up, Don’t EVEN Give Up”?

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Randy – One disappointment for another. Since Verlander is less of an injury risk, that deal makes sense, especially if you have a bad feeling about Bedard, which I think you’ve previously said. It’s a pretty even deal.

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – After I posted the article, I later regretted not ending it with that quote. Huge mistake on my part. Just a terrible oversight.

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