The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don

Andrew Miller has a tough upcoming schedule, but he’s someone who has to be owned in all but the shallowest of leagues, despite an ugly ERA (5.33) and WHIP (1.66). Over his last three starts, he’s posted a 22:5 K:BB ratio and has issued more than two walks in just one of his last seven outings. Some inconsistency with control is likely to still pop up from time to time, but Miller keeps the ball on the ground and is tough to homer off. His .378 BABIP is bound to come down, as is his ERA and WHIP.

What has gotten into Dan Uggla? During 22 games in May, he has 12 HRs, 26 runs scored, 25 RBI and a 1.000 slugging percentage. He’s always had a knack for racking up runs and RBI despite low OBPs, and at age 28, a career-year is almost certainly in store. Still, his contact rate (.71) is actually worse than his career level (.77), as is his BABIP (.369 vs. .299). He’s someone you should be trying to sell-high.

Clayton Kershaw is without question the best pitching prospect in baseball, with a fastball that reaches 97 mph and a curve that drops all the way to 72 mph. However, it’s good to remember he just turned 20 years old last week, and since he’s already thrown 50 innings this season, he’s probably only going to be allowed to toss around 100-120 more in 2008. Additionally, he averaged just 4.8 innings per start in Double-A this year due to control problems (he threw six wild pitches during nine starts). That said, he’s extremely difficult to hit, so No. 1 waiver priorities have to be used on his upside.

With a .770 OPS, James Loney has been a disappointment in 2008. Still, he’s a guy I’d be trying to buy-low, as it’s only a matter of time until he starts raking. His contact rate (.85) is solid, and most of his struggles have come against southpaws, whom he hit .319 against during 94 at-bats last season. Go get him.

Over the past week, there have been at least six erroneous home run calls.

I admit, I undervalued James Shields entering the year. His K:BB ratio was extremely impressive in 2007, but with such a lucky schedule (five starts against the Orioles, four combined versus the Yankees and Red Sox) and pitching in a tough AL East, I figured some regression was likely. Instead, he’s continued to impress, and now his ERA is matching his component stats. It’s a small sample size that might ultimately mean nothing, but it’s worth noting he’s sporting some extreme splits so far – 1.75 ERA, 0.80 WHIP at home, 6.04 ERA, 1.69 WHIP on the road.

If an outfielder or infielder loses the ball in the lights/sun and it drops in without him touching it, that’s an error – I don’t care what the rulebook says.

With a .283/.421/.602 line, Pat Burrell is having an MVP-type season. Finally over his past health problems and playing for a contract, it’s safe to assume a career-season is in store. He’s always had this type of potential, so unless you get a star in return, might as well hold onto him and enjoy the ride. He’ll never hit better than .280, but 35 homers and 115 RBI are well within reach. And to think, he was getting benched versus righties at one point last season.

Matt Holliday, Brad Hawpe, Garrett Atkins and Clint Barmes? It’s safe to say the Rockies are having some injury problems. Scott Podsednik and Seth Smith need to be owned in all deep and/or NL-only leagues.

Over his last five starts, Ben Sheets has a 29:1 K:BB ratio.

Carlos Quentin is on pace to finish with a .301 BA, 46 HRs, 142 RBI, 116 runs and 13 steals. You don’t need me to tell you he’s going to decline some, but Quentin is also showing the best plate discipline of his career and plays in the American League’s best park for power hitters. This talent is for real – his 2007 was ruined by a shoulder injury. Can you imagine the Diamondbacks if they didn’t give up on him so soon?

In RotoWire’s Staff Keeper League, Albert Pujols was just traded for Dana Eveland and Jose Vidro. Not to call out this specific owner or even go over this particular deal, but I wanted to use it to highlight just how much better it is to play in redraft leagues. Don’t get me wrong, there’s some added strategy to keeper formats, and I like the fact you can become even more attached to your players over a longer period of time. However, more often than not, trades like this one occur, so unless you’re willing to sell out for one year, you’re either rebuilding or guaranteed to finish behind some powerhouse who traded a minor leaguer for a top-5 talent before even June arrived. Moreover, yearly leagues are better because of the actual draft/auction process, which is the best part anyway.

18 Responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Tyler Durden says:

    Rockies: Dude, you forgot Ryan Spilborghs. And I think he is the guy to own. Then Seth Smith and Scott Podsednik.

  2. RotoScoop says:

    TD – I hear ya regarding Spilborghs. And you might be right. The way I saw it, I figured Spilborghs would only start versus lefties, which really limits his upside (although I’m sure he’ll do well versus southpaws in those starts). Seth Smith had a .951 OPS with more walks than Ks and 11 SBs with zero caught stealings so far this year in Triple-A – pretty impressive. However, he went 0-for-4 tonight (against a lefty, which I assume he’ll typically not start against) and Spilborghs had a great game, so maybe that PT will be divvied out differently.

  3. Tyler Durden says:

    I think Spils has only started against lefties because Hawpe (.214 AVG, .283 OBP) is so bad against them.

    Spils hits righties pretty well.

    I’ve always wanted to see what Spils did with everyday at bats.

  4. The Best Fantasy Player says:

    Now Clayton kershaw is the best pitching prospect…a few weeks ago you said Max Scherzer was the best…make up your mind

    now Andrew Miller needs to be owned…idk…is this you being serious or are you joking? I guess it depends how Miller pitches…then you will determine if you were serious or joking

    Pat Burrell is not having an MVP type season..280 average and 35 HR doesnt win you an MVP…i can rattle off 10 NL players who would be ahead of him to this point and 1 of them is on his team…and Howard will be ahead of him in a couple weeks

    The only thing you said that is right is that keeper leagues are inferior to redraft leagues…even though that trade should be vetoed regardless of type of league…please explain to me how vidro and eveland is better even if its a keeper league????? i rather have pujols the next 5 years then eveland…i guess rotowires staff league is full of some reason intelligent fantasy players…lol…yes thats me joking…i will wipe the floor with you anyday of the week

  5. Keith says:

    You really didn’t have to bring up Quentin. That trade is indefensible regardless of format, unless it rewards DH’s with the lowest SLG.

  6. TheBestFantasyPlayer Says says:

    Dalton Don Don does it again…he says a guy must be owned and the guy goes out and gets rocked…andrew miller is this weeks installment..lol…Don Don….im not sure what kinda baseball you follow with all your numbers but watching the games and having a feel for who needs to be owned and who doesnt is what truly seperates the great fantasy players…yeah you keep andrew miller who had a good 3 game stretch…lol

    oh wait let me guess…you were joking?? lolol

  7. Tyler Durden says:

    Dalton,

    Good call on Miller. I agree. I agreed a few weeks back when you said “Keeper leaguers don’t give up on Andrew Miller. He’s suffered the worst luck in all of baseball this season (.416 BABIP). Of course, his 4.26 B/9 IP mark is atrocious, so he’s currently unusable, but patience is likely to pay off down the road.”

    That patience has paid off! Good call.

    I tried to get him a few keeper leagues past few weeks. No luck. Now that he is coming into his own and achieving the potential we heard about all last year, I wish I had him in redrafts! Which is what you’re saying this week. Again, I agree.

    Not sure what they put in the wtaer in FLA, but it is working on the whole team fast, including this kid.

  8. Tyler Durden says:

    Even tonight, if you watched the Marlins game, the ump’s strike zone was questionable. With the line-up stacked with righties, Miller held it together as long as he could. Despite the loss, I was impressed. Might even open a window to get the kid. Who knows. I’ll try.

  9. RotoScoop says:

    Well, like I said, his upcoming schedule was tough, so I wasn’t big on starting him versus the Mets. Still, the former 6th overall pick is going to be a good one.

  10. The Jewru says:

    Hey Dalton,
    Why the hell did Bochy bring out Lincecum in the 8th last night? Go have a talk with him. lol They are up 6-1 he had thrown 107 pitches. Miller is going to be a good one for sure. Isn’t Scherzer no longer a prospect once he is playing in the bigs? Just wondering. One thing that hasn’t changed is this. Pujols is the best hitter of the decade PERIOD. Keeper leagues are great as long as they don’t involved auctions, salaries and minor leaguers.

  11. RotoScoop says:

    Jewru – That was insane. Giants were up comfortably too. Bochy is clueless. It’s also ridiculous Lincecum was charged that third earned run on a wild pitch by someone else. The scoring system in baseball is archaic and broken…For what it’s worth, I like Kershaw over Sherzer long-term…That’s a good point about keeper-leagues. In your format, all the dump trading problems become irrelevant.

  12. The Jewru says:

    It was insane. TheBestFantasyPlayer you made some very good points this week . Good job.

  13. The Jewru says:

    I like wearing little hats on my head on Friday nights and Saturday afternoons

  14. The Jewru says:

    Fantasyplayer stop using my moniker jackass. Now you are truly blacklisted from response and will not be doing a league with us period.

  15. The Jewru says:

    We wont let Fantasyplayer in our league and honestly I think its best for us..all his opinions have been right on. Hes to good for my small jewish ass

  16. TheBestFantasyPlayer says:

    And by the way, in case u were wondering y I am talking about the size of other dudes asses, I admit it is becuz I luv to pound them whenever I can. U can also call me TheBestRimJobberAround if u want.

  17. TheBestFantasyPlayer says:

    I heart caulk

  18. TheBestFantasyPlayer says:

    I can get my friend from boxscorebaseball to run a league anytime you want….stop running scared boys…it wont hurt boys…just a small beating

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