The Scoop

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Yunel Escobar will go down as one of the best value picks when looking back at the 2008 fantasy season. He may not offer huge power or speed potential, but he’s a legitimate .300 hitter who will be batting second in a potent lineup. Also, he’s slugging .692 this spring, so a jump in homers is possible. If you take J.J. Hardy or Khalil Greene ahead of him, you’re certifiably insane. No offense.

Is there a more overrated player than Vernon Wells? He’s had exactly two good seasons during his career and has a lifetime .776 OPS versus righties. Sure, last year’s struggles can be blamed on the bum shoulder, but his .405 slugging this spring makes you question whether he’ll be back to 100 percent anytime soon.

Am I the only one who thinks Bobby Knight is doing a fantastic job as an analyst?

Justin Verlander should be treated like a top-5 fantasy pitcher. His K rate is climbing and his walk rate continues to decline; great signs for the 25-year-old. He has a top-3 offense supporting him and hasn’t been overworked like C.C. Sabathia and Brandon Webb. In fact, I’d much prefer him to Sabathia, who tossed nearly 260 innings last year if you count his postseason work; he had never reached 200 before then.

Edwin Encarnacion is ending up on the majority of my teams. Apparently, most aren’t grouping him with Alex Gordon, Adrian Beltre, etc. like I am. Yes, he keeps failing to live up to expectations, but he’s still just 25 years old and hit .337 over the final two months last year, including nine homers and 14 doubles. He also has 15-steal ability. He’s a candidate to really break out in 2008.

Brian Wilson has been one of the most consistently underrated players in fantasy drafts this spring. With a plus fastball and hard slider, the former Beach Boy has legitimate strikeout potential. He showed improved command over the second half last year and has a 9:1 K:BB ratio over 8.2 spring innings. And avoiding closers on bad teams is a common mistake; Mariano Rivera (the Yankees) had the fewest amount of save opportunities in baseball last year.

John Patterson was flat-out released? I’m guessing the Nationals aren’t too optimistic his velocity will return anytime soon. Of course, he still probably throws harder than Barry Zito.

Although I loved the story and have followed Josh Hamilton’s career since the beginning, I largely undervalued him because of durability concerns and an inability to hit lefties. And I’m already regretting it. The guy is slugging .972 this spring! His OPS stands at a respectable 1.572. He still comes with plenty of risk, but his upside is clearly immense.

Chris Young is my dark horse pick to win the Cy Young this season. I know – he can’t finish a season, always wears down and has never reached even 180 innings in a season. Still, this is someone who had a 1.83 ERA and 0.99 WHIP when July ended last year. He could work on being more efficient – he’s “led” the league in pitches per AB in each of the past two years – but none of his injuries have ever been arm related, and he worked with a physical therapist all winter in hopes of overcoming his back issues. Despite rarely reaching more than 90 mph with his heater, it looks a whole lot faster coming from his 6-10 frame. The abnormally low BABIPs also seem to be sustainable since he’s largely a flyball pitcher, and Petco Park certainly helps. He’s a top-10 fantasy starter.

Jarrod Saltalamacchia is possibly headed to Triple-A, and J.R. Towles looks likely to be batting eighth this season – all the more reason to target catchers early. Joe Mauer and Brian McCann should be gone by the end of the third round.

Daniel Cabrera is my favorite last round pick right now. Everyone is officially fed up with him, so he’ll likely be available then, and he does still possess one of the five best arms in baseball. Pitchers develop later than hitters, and remember he’s still just 26. Sometimes the light goes on all at once with hurlers. His walk rate did drop from 6.3 BB/9 in 2006 to 4.8 BB/9 last year. Of course, both are wholly unacceptable, but it is “baby steps” (“What About Bob” is criminally underrated). Odds are you’ll end up dropping him come May, but these are the type of home run fliers you should be taking over boring options like Tom Glavine.


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14 responses to “The Scoop”

  1. Brett Avatar

    DDD.. well done..

    Yunel is a great value pick. Thoughts on Alexei Ramirez now that Richar is out 4-6 weeks and Uribe in the dog house? The guy led the Cuban League in homers last year and is set to start at 2B for the White Sox.

    Agree totally with Brian Wilson. Job’s his to lose.

    Anyone disagree with DDD on Chris Young? If so, click here http://kobayashibaseball.blogspot.com/2008/03/player-spotlight-chris-r-young.html

  2. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Honestly, I’d be lying if I said I knew what to expect out of Alexei Ramirez.

    Your Chris Young post was reassuring.

  3. franky Avatar
    franky

    mccann and mauer by 3rd round? that’s pretty extreme. v-mart and r-mart by 3rd round is what i would agree with. i drafted mccann tonight in the 6th round and i felt like i was totally reaching.

    i suppose if i miss out on v-mart, r-mart, mccann (i’m not high on mauer), you might as well wait until towards the end to draft a C.

    compare for example these 2007 stats:

    kenji johjima: 52R, 14HR, 61RBI, 0SB, .287
    AJ pierzynski: 54R, 14HR, 50RBI, 1SB, .263

    not much difference there, right? but you know there is at least 100 spots of difference in their ADP?

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Well, that statement was dependent on league specifics. I’m more inclined to back up my statement in a 15-team league with 2-C slots, like NFBC. Still, even if it’s a 12-team mixed league with 1C, if the top-3 catchers are gone in the first 20 picks, I stand by it.

    I’m actually targeting McCann and Mauer more than Martin and V-Mart. Catcher is a VERY tough position to repeat – and those two (especially Martin) were worked heavily last season. I expect a more healthy season out of Mauer/McCann and wouldn’t be surprised if those two were the most valuable catchers this season in the least bit. Remember, Mauer won the batting crown in the AL 2 years ago – this guy has serious talent. Who are you going to draft instead in the fourth round? Derek Jeter?

  5. franky Avatar
    franky

    ok, well i don’t play in any 2-C leagues, but in 1-C leagues, top 3 catchers are never gone in the first 20 picks. v-mart is around 28th pick and i actually don’t have a big problem with that pick. but i do have a problem with r-mart in the 30s. he had way too much workload last season; the dodgers have already said he will be rested much more in 08. at least v-mart gets to play 1B (30 games last yr) and DH at times, so he gets little less wear and tear.

    i do like mccann for this year and i think he’ll be the better pick than mauer. it’s kind of true what one of the readers said, that he’s a freddy sanchez with C eligibility. plus, i’m starting to think mauer is a bit injury prone. i am expecting something of an average of 06 and 07 year for mccann, which will be a almost v-mart like #s.

  6. Brett Avatar

    Franky.. Everyone has different strategies in fantasy baseball.

    If there was one proven way of drafting that would guarantee winning we’d all be doing the same exact thing.

  7. randy Avatar
    randy

    hi , i really could use some more starting pitching for my keeper league, are there any 4th or 5th starters in the rotation that you really like that nobody might have———-could really use some names———–thanks randy

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Make sure Johnny Cueto and Manny Parra aren’t available. Deeper sleepers include Chuck James (or J. Jurrens if James isn’t ready for the season opener), Kevin Slowey, Anthony Reyes and D. Cabrera. Scott Olsen too.

  9. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    I am lovin me some EE these days too. People forget that he is so young, and hits in the middle of that lineup.
    I have Hamilton in all my leagues. I had to. He might be the most talented player in the majors.
    I alluded to Dcap the other day. His peripherals compare reasonably well to RJs at the same point in their career.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Interesting note about DCab and Randy early in their careers.

  11. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Just quickly on Hamilton’s supposed durability concerns, I wonder how much of this isn’t just a figment of the community’s collective imagination.

    I don’t really see anything in his minor league history to support the supposition that he’s especially fragile, and we must remember, as a Rule 5 pickup last year, the Reds’ rights to him were at all times very tenuous–the selecting team has to maintain the player on their MLB roster the entire ensuing year, or offer him back to the team they took him from (the Rays) for half of his selection price (last I knew this was a “paltry” $50,000). Hence, any time they needed another arm, or a backup catcher or MI or whatever, it was either burn an option on one of their own guys, or move Hamilton to the DL. They couldn’t send him down, because that would have meant losing him for $25,000, as the Rays would surely have reclaimed him, if only to sell his rights to a higher bidder. His “injuries” last year could easily have been just roster games played by the team to preserve their hold on him.

    As for the substance abuse angle, while there are all kinds of health risks attendant such activities, they generally dissipate once the user goes clean. I know plenty of ex-coke and meth users who could run circles around your average clean civilian, believe me. Lawrence Taylor’s entire HoF career was built on a foundation of pure Bolivian Marching Powder.

    He’s still an unknown quantity, yes, so there is always risk, but I just think that maybe people are really making a lot of highly questionable assumptions about this guy when they posit he probably won’t go more than 120 games or whatever the standard guess is these days.

  12. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Interesting theory. But why would they DL someone with a .922 OPS if Hamilton wasn’t truly hurt? I see your reasoning, but my guess is the guy was always truly injured in those cases.

  13. franky Avatar
    franky

    “Franky.. Everyone has different strategies in fantasy baseball.

    If there was one proven way of drafting that would guarantee winning we’d all be doing the same exact thing. ”

    Brett, i’m not arguing different draft strategies per say, but what he said about mauer/mccann going by 3rd round is not advice for a draft. you should practice flexibility instead of going into drafts with thinking some player has to be gone by a certain round. i would rather preach things like value picks or adjusting on the fly, instead of saying something like that.

    i am just trying to make a point that reaching for catchers are not necessarily that great in terms of ROI. catcher is a position that is very hard to project year by year. mauer has an awesome year and then has a down year. v-mart had a low power year and then had a high power year, mccann had an awesome year and then had a down year; you really think russell martin will repeat 07?

    i’m for drafting for value at your spot; theres no reason to reach for mauer/mccann by the 3rd round when ADP reports suggest that they will still be there in the next round or two. that’s the risk i’m willing to take.

  14. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Franky – You’re right – people should be flexible and adjust on the fly. If all four catchers remain on the board, then there’s absolutely no reason to take one that high. However, I also advise not to draft based on ADPs, as all drafts are different and it’s better to take someone you really like a round too early than a round too late.

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