Starting Pitcher Rankings

Comments

26 responses to “Starting Pitcher Rankings”

1. 

   franky

   March 18, 2008

   any reason why webb and CC aren’t up there with bedard?

2. 

   RotoScoop

   March 18, 2008

   You know, when I originally did the list, Webb and CC were right there, but after further review, the fact those guys have endured some pretty heavy workloads made me lower them a bit. Of course, Hamels is a pretty big injury risk as well, but I’d personally feel more comfortable with Beckett or Verlander.

3. 

   franky

   March 18, 2008

   yeah i figured it would be due to their heavy workload. makes sense.

   while i’m not high on vazquez, i don’t think he should be that low. gallardo could end up that high for 09, but shouldn’t be drafted at that position for 08. and finally, i don’t think wolf and dan cabrera should even be on that list right now.

4. 

   Donald Trump

   March 19, 2008

   beckett over bedard. That is just crazy. Beckett=Clemens.
   Cain over Lincecum? Dude, you have seen lincecum pitch, right? Nasty! Also, seriously, will either of those two get over 10 wins? They are great young pitchers, but they wont be top 15 fantasy pitchers this year, not without some run support.
   Im about to crush somebody over bonderman being so disrespected! I will not stand for this! He will be a top 20 pitcher, easily. I said this last year, and maybe even the year before it, but this time I mean it. Seriously.
   Dice at 32 is a shame as well. He cracks the top 20 in 2008.
   Ranks 39-56 is why you cant spend too much on pitching this year. Very deep pool, and very interesting guys this deep in the draft.
   While I would never take Daniel Cabrera, check out his ratios vs randy johnson over the first 650 or so innings. There is still time for a Dcab turnaround.
   Bucholtz/hughes/joba within 7 is really great. This will be very interesting to watch play out over this season and the next dozen or so.

5. 

   Donald Trump

   March 19, 2008

   I’m dropping Franklin Morales in there somewhere.
   Dave Price. Seriously. I’m just sitting back and waiting for the second half assault on the majors.

6. 

   RotoScoop

   March 19, 2008

   I was just out the door but I’ll respond to these later today. But I don’t have Beckett over Bedard. Are you saying I should?

   Franklin Morales’ velocity is way down this spring. Hope that changes.

   David Price will be fantastic. Not a bad guy to hold onto if you have the roster spots. But he probably won’t make much of an impact until 2009.

7. 

   Donald Trump

   March 19, 2008

   Becket should absolutely be over bedard.
   I believe that young pitchers often have slower velocity in spring training. I could be wrong on that.
   I see price up by the all star break. Too dominant.

8. 

   Dreamweapon

   March 19, 2008

   The Donald, have you been eating strange mushrooms?

   I don’t know if you were joking, but if not, Good Bonderman is a myth, the reality is far darker. The guy has NEVER finished a season strong, doesn’t have a wide array of pitches, and is prone to severe torchings even in a huge park. He is so far from a Top-20 pitcher it’s not even funny. I don’t have him Top-40, personally. Don’t get me wrong, I understand where you’re coming from–the persistent myth that he’s some kind of staff ace is shared by many in the fantasy community, and this has afforded me some good deals. Just this offseason, I dealt Mauer (whom I basically view as Freddy Sanchez with ‘C’ eligibility’) and Felix (too hittable, I’m just tired of his antics…..maybe I’ll get him back when he learns that he can throw something besides a fastball down the middle for his first pitch against every single batter) for Rollins (hells yeah) and Bonderman. There was some minor resistance from other guys in the league who saw what I was up to, but I defeated their arguments by simply pointing out that Bonderman had an ERA north of 5.00 and therefore must be crap. Then, a week later, I dealt Bonderman and Upton for Ortiz and Bedard, which again pissed people off, but now I said that Bonderman started the year 10-1 and only crashed at the end b/c he had an elbow injury he didn’t bother to tell his team about, which was sufficient to mollify the league then. Hahahaha. I doubt there is another crappy SP5-level performer I could possibly have pulled such a stunt with, and it perfectly encapsulates his Jekyll & Hyde nature. The guy is not getting better, the numbers don’t support that position. The only reason to like him is a nebulous, unfounded belief that he should be good. I think some people felt that way about Wings after the Beatles broke up, but it didn’t change the fact they still sucked.

   I love Price, but I can’t see a call-up this year unless the Rays are in real playoff contention. There are at least three guys ahead of him in line (Neimann, Davis and McGee) for now, and bringing him up before next May will dick with his service clock, probably causing them to lose his rights a full year earlier than they otherwise would have. They are way, way too cheap to run that risk.

   As for Beckett, please. Care to take a look at his ’06 stats? Speaking of ERAs north of 5.00…. One year does not an ace make, and we’re talking about a guy who is every bit as injury-prone as Bedard, with perhaps 2/3 of the K ability. He has NEVER touched 200 in his career; Bedard, prior to being shut down, was on pace for a Big Unit-esque brush with three hundo. The difference between a 200 ceiling and a 300 ceiling is massive, it’s like getting an extra active pitching slot vis-a-vis your peers and being allowed to squeeze Jonathan Broxton into it for free. You cannot undersell that.

9. 

   Donald Trump

   March 19, 2008

   Yes, becket has had one year with a poor era, but 4 of his last five years have been south of 3.8. With 195 K, a cy young caliber season, and a pedro like playoffs, he is easily better than the always injured bedard. There is a reason why they call him bedard the retard, and it is because he cannot stay healthy and just had his career year. All of those Ks don’t help once the guy gets injured.
   The rays wont want to bring up Price, but his dominance will force them too, just like Lincecum last year.
   Bonderman is nasty. Realize that he is only 25, got 200K two years ago, and started last year 9-1 with a 3.48 era and 98K in 106 innings. If that does not get you interested in a pitcher, I don’t know what would.

10. 

    Lister

    March 19, 2008

    DDD – can you set up Stevenson waivers so that they reflect draft order please?

    Shouldn’t 13th pick get 1st waiver position, etc?

11. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    Franky – I already gave my views on Vazquez, who I think is being way overdrafted. I can understand passing on Gallardo there. Why take an injured pitcher over someone comparable but healthy? Still, I expect him to only miss 2-3 weeks of the regular season and still approach 180-190 innings with very good numbers.

    Randy Wolf and Daniel Cabrera are the exactly the type of guys you should be taking late round fliers on. Sure, there’s a 90 percent chance they flame out and you are dropping them after April, but there’s also considerable upside. Wolf was dominant through the first two months last year before the injury, and now he’s moving to the best pitcher’s park in the game.

    D-Cab is showing signs of maturity this spring, and while it’s unlikely he discovers command, we are still talking about someone with top-5 stuff in baseball.

12. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    Donald – I like Lincecum more long-term, and you won’t find a bigger Lincecum apologist than myself, but for this season, I’d slightly prefer Cain – all that major league experience just puts him ahead for now (even tho he’s the younger of the two). He really showed improved command over the second half of last season. Lincecum needs more work in that area. I do agree he has more upside with crazy K potential. I wouldn’t blame anyone for aggressively drafting Lincecum.

    I think you should draft pitchers based on ability. i.e. the ability to K, limit walks and limit HRs. Things like wins (and even ERA, to an extent) are largely out of their control, but it’s also a lot of random occurrences. Last year Mo Rivera received the fewest amount of save opps in all of baseball. Sometimes a pitcher from the same team can lead the league in run support while a teammate is dead last in run support.

    That said, this Giants offense could be historically bad and might need to be viewed on an entirely different plain. I’ll probably end up regretting having Cain/Lincecum on so many of my teams.

13. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    I’ve already talked about my dislike for Bonderman and Dice-K – we shall see. I’m much more worried about Bonderman of the two, for what it’s worth. All those sliders are really hard on his arm.

14. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    Dreamweapon – My boy Mauer is going to prove you wrong! Is there a bigger deviation from the norm. in fantasy baseball than Mauer’s BA compared to the rest of the catcher pool?

    Also, I do still like King Felix. No one has that strikeout ability AND G/F ratio. I hear ya regarding pitch selection, but he’s going to be special.

    I’m with ya on Bonderman and Price’s prospects for this season.

15. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    I view Bedard and Beckett rather closely. Bedard was putting up a ridiculous season last year and that was pitching in the AL East on one of the bad teams. He upgraded parks and I view his injury history as possible good news – his arm is fresh. Of course, it’d be nice to show some durability and actually reach 200 innings for once.

    Beckett has similar durability concerns – never with the arm. Although since he showed up this spring looking like he was 7 months pregnant I guess this back issue does need to be monitored. Is he the greatest postseason pitcher ever? He’s legit.

16. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    Lister – There are no waivers in that league. Not sure why Yahoo shows em. It’s first come, first serve throughout the year.

17. 

    The Jewru

    March 19, 2008

    Webb is the 3rd best pitcher period. It is as simple as that. The numbers and consistency the last two years back that up. I love Verlander and Hamels as much as the next guy but it seems illogical and foolish to think Webb will not out perform them both this year. Sorry Dalton but you are dead wrong on this one. And Bedard???? He is 29 years old and has NEVER thrown 200 innings. When it comes to drafting an ace I want the risk to regress to be at a minimum. The other thing I am noticing is the lack of repsect Oswalt is getting. His three yearaverage he is 2nd in ERA among starters behind only Johan. I understand the drop in peripherals but he has a career 3.07 ERA and no history of arm woes. Rank 21 ? He is still top 12 to me.

18. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    Webb has been worked quite a bit over the last few years. He threw a TON of pitches last season. His severe struggles this spring have me worried about that. Listen, we are splitting hairs here: I’m sure most pundits have Webb as the clear No. 3 SP on the board, and I wouldn’t fault any one for taking him as such, but just remember we shouldn’t be drafting solely off past stats – or then a monkey could project. Webb is a terrific pitcher, but a 2.6 K:BB ratio (last season) isn’t all that special. He does have the NL West working for him, however.

    Josh Beckett had never thrown 200 innings before 2006. CC Sabathia had never thrown 200 before last season. None of Bedard’s injuries have been arm related. The guy fanned 10.9 batters per 9 innings last year pitching in the toughest division in baseball. Now he moves to a better ballpark and way easier division. We shall see, but I can respect your opinion that it’s better to be safe early and avoid someone who hasn’t exhibited the skill of staying healthy for a full season.

19. 

    RotoScoop

    March 19, 2008

    Regarding Oswalt – a sinking K rate and a rising walk rate is about as obvious of a decline as it gets. A 1.33 WHIP last year too. I’d jump ship before it’s too late. That said, I’ve been worried about him for a couple years now, and he’s proven me wrong in the ERA department.

20. 

    Keith

    March 20, 2008

    McGowan’s 2nd half numbers didn’t get you onboard for his breakout season?

    Patterson just got released…shocking. Health is always an issue, but it’s kind of tough to release someone with ace potential.

21. 

    RotoScoop

    March 20, 2008

    Keith – In an earlier “The Scoop,” I predicted McGowan could easily be Toronto’s best pitcher this season. 27 is a diss? I def. like him. In hindsight, maybe I should have put him one tier higher. Personally if push came to shove, I’d probably take him over F. Carmona the more I think about it.

22. 

    chad

    March 20, 2008

    bonderman isn’t a bad pitcher to have on roster, because finding good matchups for him ins’t hard. Simply have to avoid the teams that have shelled him repeatedly. He’s a great spot start against a weak team, where he can have one of his double digit strike out games.

23. 

    Keith

    March 20, 2008

    D, that was kinda my question as I thought you were pretty high on him, and I don’t consider the 23-27 range to be particularly high rankings…and almost all of those guys are ones I would think would be ranked higher…but I try not to split hairs too much in these rankings. I definitely think Kazmir, Liriano and McGowan can beat a lot of the guys on the previous tier, even though they certainly have their share of question marks. Since it does appear that health plays such a role in your rankings (as it probably should, despite everyone’s obsessions with “upside”), I’m surprised you have C.Young so high. Unnaturally low BABIP, best pitcher’s park, good team, decent K/rate…but huge back problems. He’s a guy I just never find myself drafting, as I feel there are guys with equal potential with similar question marks in the next couple tiers.

    Just tell me this is the year King Felix takes THE LEAP. I’m starting to get tired of waiting. It feels like he must be going on 30 by now.

    I also have to say I love reading articles about the Giants these days…high humor. They want offense but aren’t willing to give up any pitching. I can’t believe a deal hasn’t gotten done with all those blue-chippers they have that are blocked by studs on the big-league team! I’m just bummed Beaned couldn’t pull off the Blanton for Cueto/Votto deal that was allegedly discussed…that would have possibly made this the best rebuidling off-season ever, and I still think the A’s have an outside chance at .500. Hell, if the Halo’s pitchers keep falling apart, the A’s could even compete (come on, is Bedard really going to pitch 200 innings? and really, can any team with Vidro as the regular DH be taken remotely seriously?).

    My one re-draft league draft is this weekend…any thoughts on a couple old guys being undervalued in that format? I’m thinking Tori Hunter, and maybe some Frank Thomas/Jim Thome types later?

24. 

    RotoScoop

    March 20, 2008

    Keith – I probably should have put McGowan higher. C. Young is someone I have always avoided in the past, but I’m taking him this year. He’s typically getting drafted lower than my ranking, that’s for sure. I wrote more about him on my most recent post, so check it out.

    I’m probably wrong, and I can see the hypocrisy with Young, but my defense is that I worry more about pitchers who have past arm troubles (and way overworked) than I do guys dealing with other ailments. Of course, with his big frame, the back thing is something to take seriously.

    I hear ya regarding King Felix. And I say yes. He will for sure this season. It’s the only year I haven’t drafted him!

    Totally agree that the AL West is there for the taking. But Beane should just deal Blanton and go all in for the rebuild mode.

    Jim Thome is getting sooo disrespected. Sure, he’ll probably miss 20 games and is only DH-eligible, but check out his power numbers over the past two years. I’d rather a guy who hits 35 homers in 400 at-bats than someone who stays healthy and hits 35 homers in 600 ABs. Seems logical, but people don’t draft like that.

25. 

    Steve Nolan

    March 20, 2008

    I’m not in love with Lackey this year either, but 52!?!??!

26. 

    RotoScoop

    March 20, 2008

    Well, he’s set to miss the first 6-8 weeks of the season with an arm injury. Now, maybe he won’t suffer a setback and he’ll come back 100 percent and give you 4 strong months, but that’s a best case scenario that’s pretty unlikely. I’d avoid him. This could get worse before it gets better.