National League West Preview

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

1. Los Angeles Dodgers

Offense: Whether Joe Torre can mix and match the right playing time and lineup decisions remains to be seen, but what isn’t up for debate is the fact the Dodgers are filled with young offensive talent. Third base is a hole with the injury to Andy LaRoche, but Rafael Furcal should bounce back with a big year, and James Loney and Matt Kemp provide big upside. A Juan Pierre trade would be for the best, and Andruw Jones showing up to camp out of shape after last year’s disaster isn’t great news, but this offense looks much improved from last season.

Pitching: While the Dodgers lack a true ace, it’s a starting rotation that’s very deep, especially with the way Hiroki Kuroda has looked this spring. Los Angeles should expect very little from Jason Schmidt, but with Brad Penny, Derek Lowe and Chad Billingsley, the Dodgers have four starters capable of posting sub-4 ERAs, even if Billingsley is another year or two away from reaching his potential. With Clayton Kershaw waiting in the wings, this staff could be dominant come the second half of the season. And with Takashi Saito, Jonathan Broxton, Scott Proctor and Jonathan Meloan, they have a loaded bullpen as well. The Dodgers have the talent to make a World Series run in 2008.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Jonathan Broxton finishes with more saves than Takashi Saito.

2. Arizona Diamondbacks

Offense: Pythagorean’s nightmare, the Diamondbacks had the National League’s best record and reached the NLCS last season despite being outscored by 20 runs. They also finished with the worst batting average (.250) and OBP (.321) in the NL. In fact, not one single hitter posted even an .850 OPS, unless you count pitcher Micah Owings (1.033). The reason for their success despite the counterintuitive statistics? Thirty-two 1-run victories, which can’t be counted on again. Still, it’s a very young offense that should show improvement in 2008, maybe even by a wide margin, making them playoff contenders.

Pitching: With a top-3 of Brandon Webb, Dan Haren and Randy Johnson, Arizona’s front-end rotation can match any team in baseball. Of course, health will play a big role, as Johnson is once again coming off back surgery and is now 44 years old. And while Webb and Haren have been workhorses throughout their careers, they are two of the most overworked pitchers over the past few seasons, making them prime candidates to break down. The back-end of the rotation is pretty thin, although Max Scherzer may solve that post All-Star break. Despite no big names, Arizona’s bullpen should actually be an asset. Fun fact – Juan Cruz had 12.8K/9 IP last season.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Brandon Lyon loses the closer’s role by May.

3. San Diego Padres

Offense: The Padres finished 2007 with the second worst BA and OBP in the NL. Part of it can be blamed on a lackluster roster, but Petco Park played a major role as well; San Diego hit a paltry .235 with a .310 OBP at home, both MLB-worsts. The infield is set, with Adrian Gonzalez and Kevin Kouzmanoff prime candidates for big seasons, but the outfield might be the worst in baseball. The Padres’ lack of offense will once again be the team’s downfall.

Pitching: While the batters loath hitting in Petco Park, the confines are quite conducive to pitching; San Diego finished with a remarkable 3.02 ERA and 1.16 WHIP at home last season. Jake Peavy is one of the game’s two best pitchers, but he’s also likely to require at least one DL-stint this year. Chris Young should be in the Cy Young mix if he can reach 200 innings for the first time in his career – he had a component ERA of 2.35 in 2007, making him the unluckiest pitcher in baseball. Greg Maddux is a solid No. 3, while Randy Wolf and Mark Prior give the back-end of the rotation some upside. The bullpen should be solid, but this might finally be the year when Trevor Hoffman falls off a cliff.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Chris Young is a more productive fantasy player than Jake Peavy.

4. Colorado Rockies

Offense: Despite entering September sitting in fourth place in their own division, the Rockies represented the National League in the World Series in 2007. Still, a late-season hot streak doesn’t transform an average franchise into a perennial title contender. Colorado does have plenty of young talent, and it’s a ballclub clearly moving in the right direction, but it’s awfully tough competing in a solid division and always having to score so many runs. The Rockies did improve their hitting on the road last season, which is a great sign for the future. Still, Matt Holliday, Troy Tulowitzki and Brad Hawpe are all likely to regress this season.

Pitching: Colorado plays terrific defense and boasts an underrated bullpen, but pitching in Coors Field can really take its toll. The more runs scored, the more pitches thrown, and the bullpen is often asked to enter games earlier than preferred. Franklin Morales and Ubaldo Jimenez have bright futures, but growing pains should be expected in 2008. Last season’s 4.32 team ERA wasn’t egregious all things considered, but the accompanying 1.9:1 K:BB ratio reveals they might have been a little lucky.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Willy Taveras steals 60 bases.

5. San Francisco Giants

Offense: Only the Nationals scored fewer runs than the Giants last season, and no team had a worse slugging percentage (.387). And that was with the NL-leader in OPS in the heart of the lineup. With no Bonds around (we’ll miss you Barry!), San Francisco isn’t only fielding the worst lineup in baseball, but one that could also be historically bad. Their current cleanup hitter, Bengie Molina, posted a .298 OBP last year and boasts a career .411 slugging percentage. Brian Sabean also thought it’d be a good idea to give $60 million to an injury-prone 30-year-old with a career .805 OPS. Their projected regular starting infield had an average OPS of .660 last season.

Pitching: Matt Cain and Tim Lincecum are two future aces with very bright outlooks, giving the Giants an enviable top of the rotation for years to come. Or until Sabean deals one of them for A.J. Peirzynski or Shea Hillenbrand. Barry Zito, who quietly posted a 2.63 ERA and 0.98 WHIP over the final two months last year, could settle in as a decent No. 3. Still, he’s looked brutal this spring and averages the slowest fastball in all of baseball these days. On the plus side, there’s just six years remaining on his $126 million deal. The chances of Noah Lowry repeating a sub-4 ERA with a 1:1 K:BB ratio are about as good as Sabean getting the better end of a trade – slim to none. The only reason the Giants get a fifth place finish is because there aren’t more teams in the division.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Rajai Davis steals 35 bases.


Posted

in

by

Tags:

Comments

2 responses to “National League West Preview”

  1. N Avatar
    N

    Hope you’re right. I just nabbed Peavy AND Young in a draft last night.

  2. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Call me crazy, but wouldn’t it have made sense to re-sign Bonds? I mean, they already sold their soul, they have fantastic pitching and need offense, plus when Bonds bats, that’s the only time that more than 50% of the “fans” in the stadium pay attention to what’s going on in the field. I don’t exactly think it’s outlandish to think the sellouts are going to be fewer and further between (except for Friday nights of course, when the game is really just an excuse to go to MoMo’s). Anyway, I thinkyou have things right. People seem to think Arizona and Colorado are set to build on last year, while most numbers actually point to regression (though the Haren trade will help Zona a lot). I guess Arizona has the most room for growth with Upton and Drew, and your boy Connor “Hammerin’ Hank” Jackson, but the Dodgers should run away with it, even if 3B is an abyss (please, take Chavez!). Kershaw will be up around the All Star break after someone (Penny) gets hurt.

    Taveras has huge potential if he can stay healthy.

Leave a Reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *