American League West Preview

1. Los Angeles Angels

Offense: The loss of John Lackey and Kelvim Escobar combined with Seattle’s addition of Erik Bedard makes this a competitive division, if not also the weakest in baseball. For a team that usually considers pitching its strength, the Angels actually scored the sixth most runs in baseball last season. Vladimir Guerrero’s body is beginning to break down, but he’s still an elite hitter. Torii Hunter improves the defense and gives the Angels some nice depth, but he’s not a big difference maker – he has a career OBP of .324. Still, Howie Kendrick and Casey Kotchman should really break out this season, giving Anaheim just enough offense to once again secure the AL West.

Pitching: All the injuries to the pitching staff make the Orlando Cabrera for Jon Garland deal look less bad, and Jered Weaver is ready to become the ace of the staff. One of these years, Ervin Santana is going to put it all together and deliver a fine season, and it might very well be in 2008. Joe Saunders worked hard over the offseason and makes a decent back-end guy, but Scot Shields looks finished as an elite setup man. It’s a good thing Anaheim had depth, because Escobar’s career is in serious jeopardy, and Lackey really can’t be counted on right now.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Howie Kendrick wins the AL batting crown.

2. Seattle Mariners

Offense: Seattle had a better record than team last year, but with Erik Bedard in town and a crumbling Angels squad, the Mariners enter 2008 with eyes toward winning the AL West. However, the offense is not very good, especially if Adrian Beltre’s wrist injury proves troublesome. Richie Sexson bouncing back would go a long way toward rectifying that problem, but at age 33, he’s clearly in decline. Jose Vidro isn’t a bad hitter, but a .394 slugging percentage from your DH is unacceptable.

Pitching: Seattle potentially has baseball’s best one-two punch in Bedard and Felix Hernandez, but their 3-5 is pretty ugly, although Jarrod Washburn has been impressive this spring. Bedard has gotten off to a rocky start in Seattle, both with the media and on the mound, but he has 300-strikeout potential. He’s never reached 200 innings in a season during his career, but none of the injuries have been arm related, and they have kept his workload down. Kenji Johjima’s fault or not, Hernandez still needs to improve his command. However, the fact he has great strikeout potential is one thing; the fact he accompanied that with a 2.67 G/F ratio is quite another. It’s really a mystery why he’s been so hittable. Only health can stop King Felix from winning multiple Cy Young awards.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Felix Hernandez goes 18-8 with a 2.98 ERA and 210 Ks.

3. Oakland A’s

Offense: Although the A’s are clearly in rebuild mode and are projected to be cellar dwellers by most, it should surprise no one if they were still in the AL West mix come August. Of course, that would take the unlikely scenario of a full season from Rich Harden, as well as Joe Blanton and Huston Street staying put. Billy Beane deserves all the credit in the world, but he was mistaken when he chose Eric Chavez as the one guy to keep long-term. Bobby Crosby isn’t going to ever win that MVP the ESPN talking heads predicted, but he could surprise in 2008. The same could be said for Chris Denorfia and Travis Buck. Jack Cust leaves little up to chance, as he’s a big proponent of the game’s three true outcomes.

Pitching: Like Mark Prior, health has prevented Harden from compiling multiple Cy Young awards on his shelf; he has top-5 stuff in the game. His impressive outing against Boston earlier this week makes him more of a sell-high candidate in fantasy leagues than it does reliable, but he’d likely be a top-10 pitcher if he somehow reached 190 innings. Three years from now, a rotation featuring Harden, Gio Gonzalez, Fautino de los Santos and Brett Anderson will make the A’s World Series contenders.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Jack Cust clubs 40 homers.

4. Texas Rangers

Offense: The Rangers will undoubtedly finish with a top-10 offense, but their pitching will ultimately lead to another disappointing record. Milton Bradley will rake in between DL stints, Hank Blalock should approach 100-RBI hitting cleanup, and Ian Kinsler could go 20/30. Josh Hamilton is a truly special talent, and what he’s come back from is nothing short of remarkable.

Pitching: Ironically, Texas pitched much better at home (4.29 ERA) than on the road (5.25 ERA) last season. They enter 2008 as the favorites to finish with the worst team ERA in all of baseball. Of course, their home park doesn’t help, but neither does the lack of talent. Not one starter can be safely projected with an ERA of less than 4.50. The bullpen isn’t much better either.

Outlandish fantasy prediction: Josh Hamilton leads the American League in home runs.