Often you will find two players who are being drafted typically right around the same area and have similar price tags in auctions. Maybe both will bring back close to equal value in returns. Or, the decision could make or break your season. Leave your choice and thoughts on the matter in the comments section.
Matt Cain or Chris Young?
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Tough call DDD. I really can’t choose. I’d have to say Young if he were guaranteed 200 innings which is yet to happen. Young seems safer and Cain has the ability to match Young’s stats if he pitches more innings. Young.
Hey DDD. Although I agree with Greeny and think Young is a safer pick, I tend to take more risks than most, and Cain is one of the best risk/reward picks this season.
I have been a big fan of Cain for the last few seasons, and I think this is finally his year to shine and make good on his hype. I would rather wait the few rounds, pass on Young and go with a bat, then grab Cain in the mid-rounds, hoping for ultimate value there.
Cain. Young is solid, but he’s also demonstrated a perplexing tendency to fade, badly, as the season progresses, whereas Cain has dramatically improved down the stretch both of his first two full seasons. For those in H2H leagues (and hence, with playoffs), the lesson to be learned here is obvious. IF Young stays healthy and IF he can somehow avoid his late summer swoons, yes, he will almost certainly finish with more Ws than Cain, if for no other reason than the fact that Cain is backed by the worst MLB offense since the ’82 Reds. Those are pretty big IFs, and because there are four categories in play for most team owners, I am saying Cain, as the epitome of excellent health and possessing a higher “ceiling” (he is like five years younger than Young, ironic as that sounds), is actually the “safer” pick.
Gotta go Young. Had more K’s in almost 30 fewer innings, pitches in PETCO and isn’t backed by the worst offense in the history of time like Cain.
Buuuuut it seems like Young is going around 30-45 picks earlier than Cain in drafts (from MDC and Yahoo) so I don’t know how equally valued they are.
i agree with steve. it depends. i think i would rather have cain personally.
go cain, ———–but i have 3 offers sent to me for keeper league, i could trade adam jones for kotchman————i could trade adam jones milledge, looney for abreau, adrian gonnzalez, ben brussard ( who is nothing) or i could also trade joe crede in the last deal also headley———-the first deal gives me kotchman to go get a lf or rf i need, second deal gives me gonzalez and abrea who is a rf———i like and hate the second deal————what ya think——–thanks
Good commentary fellas. I think this one is the toughest call of today’s “Take Your Pick” challenge, but I’m leaning toward Cain. I won’t rehash it – Young’s body seems to always break down, but his first halves have been awesome the last two years. His unbelievably low BABIP seems to be sustainable, for whatever reason, but he could really stand to get more efficient. He’s been last in the league in pitchers per plate appearance for each of the past two years.
Cain’s declining K rate last season is of some concern, but he’s got the right build and “mound presence” to put it all together one of these seasons. I think it happens this year, although that still likely results in only 12-15 wins. Improved command would go a long way, which he finally demonstrated toward the end of 2007. A flyball pitcher with that ballpark at his aid and essentially three center fielders out there also helps.
This one’s close, but I’d take Cain.
Randy – A. Jones for Kotchman – I like Kotchman, but NO. Kotchman is very solid and should be a big help in BA, but he won’t steal any bases and is unlikely to ever hit more than 20-25 HRs in a season.
I don’t like the second deal either. Abreu will be plenty valuable this year, but he’s clearly in the decline phase of his career and his XBHs are doubles now instead of homers. If he wasn’t in such an amazing situation, he wouldn’t be all that valuable. I really love A. Gonzalez and I think he’d be a huge gain, but Petco limits his upside and you’d be giving up too much.
In a keeper league, you need to value A. Jones higher. And Loney is a major asset as well. He’s going to be a fantasy monster soon enough. And Milledge isn’t bad either.
I’d reject both of those deals and continue looking…
People always seem to focus on Cain’s poor run-support from last year, but like DDD mentioned, I thought the decreasing K rate a much bigger deal. His K/9 seemed to creep back over 8 in the 2nd half of the season, which will help him a lot, but if it’s closer to the 7 range, then I don’t like him nearly as much. Chris Young’s K/9 does seem to be improving, but it’s the health issues that keep him down. This is a case where I’d probably go for which ever one slips in the draft…but if I had to choose, I’d probably go Cain.
I think Cain’s K rate jumps back up this year. And run support is very difficult to project. Obviously, the Yankees are going to outscore the Giants this season (as is every team in baseball), but from pitcher to pitcher, it’s luck.
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