Tuesday Morning Quarterback

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

After a 9-7 Week 17 against the spread, my 129-118-9 season record means there’s a new RotoWire Staff Picks champion. Like Matthew McConaughey’s character in “Two For The Money,” all I do is work out and pick winners. Only I don’t work out.

It’s tough to find fault with Tom Brady’s 2007 season, but it is a little crazy to think how long it took him to beat Peyton Manning’s TD record after throwing 30 scores over the first half of the season. Manning, who did have the benefit of playing in a dome, did not have the NFL’s most gifted receiver (Randy Moss) at his disposal and also sat out all of Week 17 during his record-setting performance…New England didn’t just go 16-0 this season, they did so winning on the road against the NFL’s next two best teams (Indianapolis and Dallas)…Since I’m all about upside, I’ll be the sucker drafting Brandon Jacobs way too early next season. The more I think about it, the more I’m feeling him as a first round pick.

Few probably watched it, but the Seattle/Atlanta game was actually one of the best of the season…Chris Redman quietly put up 7.5 YPA or more in three of his four starts this year…If Roddy White ends up on your fantasy team next year, you won’t be sorry.

I was surprised to find out the Saints’ secondary was even worse than Kyle Orton at quarterback…Drew Brees completed more passes in a season than any other QB in the history of the NFL this year…Here are Brees’ stats in the red zone for the 2007 season: 23:0 TD:INT ratio and zero sacks. That’s pretty solid…The Bears’ defensive line was banged up, but do not underestimate just how good Pierre Thomas was Sunday. Unless you can nab an Adrian Peterson type, it’s next to insane to spend an early draft pick on a running back. I’d honestly rather Thomas starting in my backfield than I would Reggie Bush.

Hide the women and children when Chris Weinke steps onto a football field. Words can’t describe how poorly he played against a terrible Browns’ secondary Sunday…The Derek Anderson/Brady Quinn saga is an interesting development…Forget Rookie of the Year. Patrick Willis is the NFL’s Defensive Player of the Year.

Brandon Jackson looked halfway decent Sunday, and only 16 weeks too late…Ryan Grant is going to be one of the more debatable fantasy players entering next season…I’m not sure if Mike Martz is a really good or a really bad offensive coordinator.

I’m going to be sure to draft Ron Dayne next year and stash him. There hasn’t been a better fantasy running back over the last few weeks of each season over the last two years…Jacksonville might very well go into Pittsburgh and win again this week, but the stats say the Steelers come out on top.

The Ravens were inches away from becoming the only team to beat New England and lose to Miami during the 2007 season…I love how every move the Dolphins make now seems like life-or-death because Bill Parcells is running the show. Is there a more overrated person in all of sports?

The Eagles are playing some of the better football right now, and I’d argue they’d beat the Redskins regardless of venue. They had the hardest schedule in the NFL this season…Where do you take Marshawn Lynch in fantasy leagues next year? I hate drafting RBs who play with poor quarterbacks.

It’s been beaten to death, but why did John Fox give so many more carries to DeShaun Foster instead of DeAngelo Williams this year? I liked the version of Foster more when he was explosive and always hurt…The Panthers really hit a home run by selecting Jon Beason with the 25th pick in last year’s draft.

Troy Smith, NFL quarterback? I still doubt it, but he has looked more competent than I expected…Reason No. 3,867 why RBs are the most fungible position in football: Cory Ross.

It seems to me Terrell Owens is awfully important to this Dallas offense…Clinton Portis definitely exceeded my expectations this year. Imagine what he would have done if seemingly every member of the Redskins offensive line didn’t get hurt…Washington became just the fourth team ever to reach the playoffs after a 5-7 start.

I get that theoretically it’s better to focus on the future than smaller short-term goals, but in my estimation, you’d have to be brain-dead to hand Matt Leinart the starting QB role over Kurt Warner next season…Put a fork in Edgerrin James, he’s done…It’s safe to say Marc Bulger didn’t have a very successful 2007 season.

What Brandon Marshall did as a sophomore is underrated. Cutler to Marshall is the new Montana to Rice…Speaking of which, there is not a better quarterback to target in fantasy leagues next year than Jay Cutler…Chester Taylor’s 2007 season was one of the most underrated in the NFL…Maybe Adrian Peterson’s lackluster finish to the year will allow him to slip in next year’s fantasy drafts. Instead of going No. 1, maybe he’ll fall all the way to No. 2.

After JaMarcus Russell’s first pass of the game Sunday turned out to be one of the worst of the 2007 season, he actually put together a solid performance…The Raiders have a very good running game…While he’s never broken out as some expected, mainly because LaDainian Tomlinson is as durable as they come, it will be interesting to see where Michael Turner ends up during the offseason.

The Brodie Croyle versus Kellen Clemens matchup Sunday was about as ugly as it gets…All of a sudden, Chad Pennington doesn’t look so bad. And neither does Damon Huard…D’Brickashaw Ferguson has quietly become one of the bigger draft day busts in recent memory. He allowed the second most sacks in the NFL this season. Only Jeff Backus allowed more, and at least he had the excuse of playing for pass-happy Detroit.

Is it just me, or did the Colts’ offense drop off after Peyton Manning exited?…It’s Craphonso Thorpe’s world, and the rest of us are just paying rent…Marvin Harrison apparently suffered the worst bruise in the history of bruises.

Posted

January 1, 2008

FOOTBALL

RotoScoop

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6 responses to “Tuesday Morning Quarterback”

Brett

January 1, 2008

DDD,

Happy New Year…

Great point you made about Brady v.s. Manning concerning the TD record.

Being a Giants fan, I agree with the upside of Jacobs, but what do you say about his durability? In addition, no-names like Ward and Bradshaw have shown to be great as well when given the opportunity to run with the Giants O-line.

Isn’t Derrek Anderson a FA?

Any predictions or comments on Turner’s whereabouts? Julius Jones and Marion Barber are both FA as well…

I think Ryan Grant is a huge bust next year. I think Brandon Marshall is a top 10 WR next year.

I totally agree with you about the drafting of RB’s. More success seems to come from drafting and developing a offensive line like that of the Broncos, Colts, Patriots, Raiders, Jaguars, etc. Then, simply insert whoever you want at RB, tell them to hold onto the ball, and improve your team elsewhere.

Interesting point suggesting Warner over Leinart next year. Maybe Warner is given the gig and gets hurt in week 3, mounting a new opportunity with more pressure to succeed for Leinart.

Lastly, was the hit in the Colts/Titans game on that kickoff return the best hit you’ve ever seen in a football game?
RotoScoop

January 1, 2008

Brett – Happy New Year to you too.

I’m obviously worried about Jacobs’ (lack of) durability, but compiling the RB list, there just aren’t many others I’d rather have, especially if you can get his clear backup. Coughlin’s system (and their O-line) is very good, and I expect Jacobs to go back to being the goal line guy after the ill suited Droughns was used this year. Jacobs will come with definite risk tho, there’s no doubt about it.

Derek Anderson is a restricted free agent- meaning he can be placed with the franchise tag or Cleveland will be compensated with both a 1st and 3rd round pick if someone signs him. He’ll be back w/ the Browns next year almost certainly. (Unless traded)

Not sure about where Turner will end up (Jets?), which will be pretty dependent upon his fantasy value…Julius Jones is an unrestricted free agent, whereas Barber is restricted. Expect only Barber to be back in Dallas.

Warner turns the ball over too much, but so does Leinart. It’s too early to call Leinart a bust, but Warner was SIGNIFICANTLY better than him this year.

That hit was definitely up there. For sure.
Robby

January 2, 2008

Is Chester Taylor still with the Vikes next year? If so, I’m not taking AP in the top-3.
RotoScoop

January 2, 2008

That’ still undecided, and a legitimate concern if he does hang around. I’d still take Peterson top-3 tho. He made Taylor moot for a stretch there, and a lot of his late season slump can be blamed on the knee injury and the fact rookies aren’t used to such long seasons. But I hear ya. And like I say in this article, I hate taking fantasy RBs who play w/ poor QBs.
Dreamweapon

January 2, 2008

Hey man, I’m back following some surgery and a nice convalescence in northern Wisconsin, where all of the mixed drinks are $2.50 or less, contain 95% alcohol, and come in glasses the size of Big Gulps (I shit you not, it’s an alcoholic’s wonderland up there). Despite all of this, and a series of blizzards, I only put one car in the ditch, so I’m pretty proud of myself.

I enjoyed Jacobs while I owned him this year (picked him 25th overall, 1st pick of round 3), and I totally agree about the potential, but at the same time, I slept a lot easier once I dealt his ass for value. I guess I would take him again next year, but not in the 1st round, he’s just too brittle. The worst thing about him is that his injuries are typically of the 1/2-game, 1-game, 2-game variety at most, so I think it’s probably fair to apply to the “pussitis” label to him, which is never a good thing. He could probably play through 7/8 of his claimed ailments. I’m one to talk–I could probably work through 7/8 of mine, but then again, I make five figures, not six or seven. If Anquan Boldin can produce with a bad hip (one of the worst injuries a pro athlete can have) AND a dislocated toe, Jacobs really should be able to shake some of the sand out of his vagina and get on the field on a more consistent basis. Perhaps some of it is his youth and the team babying him, I don’t know. The flip side is that he hasn’t had any serious injuries, and rebounds well when he does come back, so he’s probably pretty easy to deal for value anyway, meaning if one does take him and gets sick of him, you can still get a fair exchange. I just hate handing the rock to a guy who might not last more than six minutes in a given week. That said, the talent is there, and certainly you are right about the system being conducive to big #s.

As for Grant….I’d probably take him in the 2nd too, and likely ahead of Jacobs. He was hands-down one of the best backs in the league over the final half of the season. I grew up north of the Cheddar Curtain, and follow the Pack pretty closely, and saw at least a substantial portion of every game this year. What I saw with Grant is a guy who takes his one cut and then flies straight up the field. He is a decisive and instinctive runner, and doesn’t dick around at the line playing pattycake all day like, say, a certain recent Heisman winning ACTUAL BUST does, so linebackers have to chase him down rather than simply park in his way and pounce. Favre is coming back, the receiving corps is a nightmare to cover (esp. with Jennings deep and Lee over the middle). The interior of that o-line is also very young and likely to further improve, which can only help him. I wouldn’t be the least bit surprised to see Top-5 RB numbers out of him. I don’t care where he went to school, or that he isn’t on any NFL Network commercials yet, I just want those delicious 60-yard romps in my ledger, and not my opponent’s. Really, the more I think about the guy, the more I’m talking myself into believing he could be a first-rounder. Who else? Tomlinson, ok (but get ready for the fall…..when it comes for RBs, it’s calamitous, and without notice), AD, sure (just for fun factor)……S. Jackson, ok, Addai, ok, I guess. Brady if you’re really into QBs (I wouldn’t). Who else? LJ comes with a boatload of caveats. Ronnie Brown is coming back from a serious injury and probably won’t be the same next year. There isn’t a receiver I would take ahead of him, really. Yeah….I think he’s a first-round pick. Jackson may have looked decent, but Grant keyed their entire gameplan and legitimized them as a true playoff threat. Plus, he only averaged 11.0 yards a carry in Jackson’s only “decent” game.
RotoScoop

January 2, 2008

Dreamweapon – Good to have you back. Don’t you dare go so long without a comment ever again, you hear? Surgery, eh? Hope everything came out all right. I def. hear you about Jacobs and his lack of toughness, and as the guy who writes the RB rankings for the RW mag, I love to take everyone’s opinion into account here. But that system and his YPC are swaying me right now.

And I can def. be swayed with Grant. I don’t care either that he wasn’t a high draft pick (mainly I worry that the GB brass doesn’t want to look bad by taking B. Jackson high so they’ll give him every opportunity to cut into Grant’s time). Last week I did an early Top-30 article – http://rotoscoop.com/blog/2007/12/27/top-30/ – in case you missed it.

I agree with you tho, personally, I probably wouldn’t take a QB or WR ahead of a Grant type. And there’s really only 7 RBs I sincerely would rather have: LT, AD, MB3 (Jones is gone), Westbrook, Addai, Jackson and Gore. So I could easily see Grant going mid-late first round. But he won’t come without some risk (then again, what RB doesn’t. I seriously might recommend ppl pass on LT2 next year. Better to jump ship a year early than a year late. See Marvin Harrison this season. And S. Alexander)

Tuesday Morning Quarterback

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6 responses to “Tuesday Morning Quarterback”

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