Round One Preview

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Redskins +3.5 at Seahawks

Comments: The Redskins come in on a roll (winners of four straight) and with destiny on their side. Todd Collins has improbably been a major upgrade at quarterback, and Washington’s secondary has been a big reason for the winning streak as well. Still, homefield is a big deal here, as the Seahawks are very tough to beat in Seattle. While the team may be more one-dimensional (no running game), the Seahawks have a very good pass rush and secondary, which should spell doom for Washington. Matt Hasselbeck is also a big advantage, as well as Mike Holmgren over Joe Gibbs. The Seahawks are my bet of the week.

Seahawks 27-13.

Jaguars pick ’em at Steelers

Comments: At this point, I’m pretty sure even my mom is taking the Jaguars this week, and she doesn’t even know they are playing. Without a doubt, they are the hotter team entering the tournament, and David Garrard has really blossomed this season. Still, it will be awfully tough to go into Pittsburgh and win for the second time in the last month. Pittsburgh isn’t the same team it was earlier in the year (injuries to Aaron Smith and Troy Polamalu have hurt), but they have a significant advantage in net YPA (2.0 to 0.8) – the most important stat in football. Go contrarian; the Steelers win this week.

Steelers 23-20.

Giants +2.5 at Buccaneers

Comments: It’s interesting that these two teams meet round 1, since they could not have gone in more opposite philosophical directions toward the end of the season. While Tampa Bay may be rusty after sitting its starters for the final 1.5 games, the Giants enter sharper but with more injuries and the worry of a letdown after last week’s playoff like atmosphere loss to the Patriots. The Giants are 7-1 on the road this season, while the Bucs have an identical record at home. Tampa Bay’s defense is legit, and Jeff Garcia is much less likely to turn the ball over than Eli Manning. The Bucs come out on top.

Buccaneers 21-17.

Titans +9.5 at Chargers

Comments: Just a few weeks ago, the Titans had a 17-3 fourth quarter lead over these Chargers. They ended up losing that game, and the change in venue this week figures to have a dramatic effect. San Diego is really tough to beat at home, and the team has really come on over the second half of the season. A blowout is possible, but Tennessee seems to always find a way to at least hang around, despite having no stars on its roster (Albert Haynesworth isn’t one when hobbled). The Titans actually have a better net YPA, which suggests this line is way off base, but if San Diego’s ball-hawking secondary (30 INTs led the NFL by a wide margin) can force Vince Young into some turnovers, things could get ugly.

Chargers 24-17.


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8 responses to “Round One Preview”

  1. Mike Avatar
    Mike

    I liked the Jags and the Skins, so I guess we are even. Although, a lot of the more recent odds had Pitt getting all the way up to +3, so really, you probably have me beat. Either way, 2 really good games to start off the playoff season!

  2. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Damn your eyes for your Skins prediction–you’d better grease the skids for the Pack in my revenge game this week or I’m going to pitch a major fit. [g]

    Can we maybe talk some baseball for a second? I have found that the vast majority of the great heists I have ever pulled tend to come during the winter months, so I am already moving to consolidate my position in my main league (I just dealt Joba and Buchholz, only one of whom I could keep, for Joe Mauer…..meh, I know, but I needed a C, last year was a debacle with Piazza stinking up the joint). One move in particular I am considering involves Utley. I love the guy, but I also have Upton and Weeks eligible at 2B, and really, I am pretty ecstatic with those options. I can play all of them b/c we use a MI spot and a util spot (plus Upton is CF eligible, though I already have Sizmore there), but I wonder if I am not better off dealing him for Triple Crown-level bat. I see two targets: Pujols (have already discussed him, and Utley plus maybe the prospect rights to Phil Hughes would get this done), and Matt Holliday (can maybe deal for him straight-up, and possibly even get a draft pick back in trade). Either should have more RBIs and HRs than Utley, with similar stats everywhere else. And they’re both young and should age reasonably well.

    I dunno, I just dunno. I love the guy, he is my best player, but he can also fetch the most in return, so I’d prefer to deal him over getting a lesser quantity for Upton or Weeks. I could use the power, my own real “boppers” are Miggy and Teixeira. I could also use starting pitching, but apart from Johan no one is worth Utley, and I’m happy to wait on that. I could further use a SS, badly, but Reyes and Hanley’s owners won’t deal them, and I just don’t like Rollins quite enough to pull the trigger….

    12-team league, H2H (std 5×5 plus Errors/Holds)–winner-take-all format, you either W, L or D each week, you don’t get individual wins for categories. My team is:

    6 core keepers (will be 7 next year and beyond): Utley, Miggy, Tex, Upton, Mauer, Felix

    +1s (one “free” keeper year….b/c of arcane league rules….basically other teams’ former “franchise” guys acquired in trade): Sizemore (weee!), Zimmerman, Weeks—most of our teams don’t even get 1 freebie, and no one else has more than one, so I should get some nice traction here

    Franchise players (guys promoted from minors who we get for three free years outside of regular keepers following activation): Delmon, Liriano, Lincecum, Cain

    Prospects: Gordon, S. Drew, Maybin, McCutchen, Wieters, Hughes, Gallardo, D. Price (essentially I am stacked there, easily the best minor league system in the league).

    As you can see, I should be decent assuming I can assemble another workable bullpen, but I am not going to blow many teams away in the power cats.

    If you have any thoughts, I would dearly love to hear them. Danke!

  3. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Dreamweapon – Sorry about the Skins. It was a great run. Pack should take care of business this week.

    In keeper leagues, it’s crucial to pull off 2-for-1 type deals when you aren’t even planning on keeping the two. Joba and Bucholz have quite a bit of upside, but I’ll still give my seal of approval for landing Mauer. He’s going to put up a monster season one of these years.

    I think your team is stacked. I’m not particularly high on Miggy – if there’s someone I’d be shopping, it’s him. He’s clearly in the decline, but maybe his perceived value hasn’t caught up to reality. Then again, you’re thin at SS, so that could be tricky.

    Sizemore (obvious stud), Zimmerman (should bounce back this year, especially with better home park to hit in) and I love Weeks (check out his final 6 weeks. unreal.).

    You know I have a man-crush on Lincecum, and Liriano was the best pitcher in baseball before the injury.

    I really like Utley (I’d consider Peavy for him, but pitchers are obviously more risky), but since you need power, I’d look at doing the Pujols deal. It’s a great time to buy-(relatively)low with him. I like Hughes quite a bit, but you’re loaded with prospects, so I’m not sure I’d let that get in the way of doing a deal. The AL East is an awfully tough place to pitch. It’s close tho – right now on my board I have Pujols 4th and Utley 6th. Let me know how it turns out…

  4. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Thanks man, I really appreciate it. I am definitely going to make a push for Pujols now–I should have better than a 50/50 shot at landing him as his owner’s farm system is an unfunny joke (his only two guys worth anything are Hochevar and Pelfrey, neither of whom I think hold a candle to Hughes, or any of my other guys….and that’s it, there is nothing else. Unless you really like Merkin Valdez. He does have an interesting name, I guess. [g]). I’m going to start working on him tonight about it, in fact. He was on the precipice with just Utley and Joba, and Joba didn’t come with the all-important prospect status as I picked him up off the FA heap midseason (Buchholz too, lol….).

    Oh yeah–Miggy–I totally forgot about Tejada, I meant Miguel Cabrera, a/k/a Young, Fat, Latin Ted Williams. [g] I wouldn’t kept Tejada, I totally agree he is radical decline. Cabrera is the Miggy I was referring to.

    Thanks again, I’ll let you know what happens!

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    No problem. Ah, Merkin Valdez – A name that brings back fond memories. Another SF bust of a prospect. Next you’re going to tell me he’s holding onto Jesse Foppert.

    My bad about Miggy – I should have realized that. Especially since Tejada was so miscast with the rest of your group. And you’ve talked about Cabrera before. Ya, I think I’d hold on to him.

    This Roger Clemens thing is fascinating. Did you see his interview today? That guy is going to lose it. The phone conversation really adds some bite to this story. I’m normally bored to tears with steroid stuff, but this is pretty entertaining actually.

  6. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Oh yeah, you’re a SF fan, hehehe….sorry I even mentioned Liriano’s name. [g] No, I totally haven’t seen Clemens’ interview, but I’m sure its a complete debacle, I’ll have to try to grab it on YouTube. I am pretty worn out on him already, though….me thinks he doth protest too much, to abuse the well-worn cliche.

  7. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Well, looks like it’s a done deal, he has all but taken Utley + prospect rights to Hughes for Pujols, provided I throw in a mid-round draft pick (which means practically nothing to me in our format; I have a ton of extra picks from trades last fall anyway). Ah, the union of Pujols and Baby Pujols in the same fantasy infield, what could be more glorious?

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Yeah – Expect Pujols to post monster numbers this season after last year’s disappointing (for him) campaign.

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