1. Ryan Howard
2. Albert Pujols
3. Prince Fielder
4. Mark Teixeira
5. Justin Morneau
6. Lance Berkman
7. Derrek Lee
8. Carlos Pena
9. Adrian Gonzalez
10. Paul Konerko
11. Nick Swisher
12. James Loney
13. Todd Helton
14. Casey Kotchman
15. Carlos Delgado
16. Conor Jackson
17. Joey Votto
18. Ryan Garko
19. Kevin Youkilis
20. Daric Barton
21. Nick Johnson
22. Dan Johnson
23. Adam LaRoche
24. Lyle Overbay
25. Richie Sexson
26. Mike Jacobs
27. Aubrey Huff
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What do you forecast for Derek Lee and Carlos Pena? i am surprised to see lee so high on the list.
are the odds of a full season out of nick johnson 0%?
I might be living on a Desert Island with this one, but I think Sexson is a nice buy low this year, obviously in larger leagues.
Howard over Pujols…gutsy, but understandable.
Hafner is 1B elligible in a lot of leagues now, though I’m still not sure what to expect from him this year.
I think Swisher has a chance at a big bounce-back year.
Sounds about right to me.
The odds of Nick Johnson playing 150+ games are about the same as me becoming head of the DEA.
Sexson is radioactive to most owners at this point. I certainly wouldn’t invest a meaningful pick in him–if he’s drafted early, just be thankful b/c his owner will probably dump him on waivers in 2-3 weeks when he inevitably starts off slow, and in so doing may have passed on a better player who you can scoop up. He might be worth picking up at that point, or in like the 20th round of a draft, just to see what’s left. It’s a shame to see the spiritual successor to Rob Deere laid so very, very low.
I would frankly prefer Swisher to Derrek Lee at this point. Not trying to be offensive here, but Lee is basically the black Todd Helton at this point: empty avg out of a position where you simply MUST take away some decent power #s. He makes me yawn so hard my jaw dislocates every time I hear his name. If Adrian Gonzalez were transported to Lee’s spot in the Cubs’ lineup, in that park, he would be worth twice what Lee is.
DDD,
Like the rankings.. what do you project guys like loney and votto to do?
Back to James Shields for a moment… referring to his easy schedule..
In 7 starts against Anaheim, Boston and Cleveland, he had an ERA under 3.00 and more than a strikeout per inning..
If you take away two starts where he gave up 16 runs in 9 innings against the Yankees, his WHIP would be closer to 1.00 than the already good 1.10
Donald – Derrek Lee’s power came back during the 2nd half last year, it just took him a while to get his wrist back to 100 percent. .941 OPS after the break.
I expect Pena to hit more homers and have more RBI, while Lee will beat him in avg. by a decent amount and could go back to stealing 12-18 bases as well.
The two are close in my view, and I’d have absolutely no problem if you took Pena above Lee. He probably has more upside. But he’s obviously due to regress. Then again, he was pretty unreal last season.
And I agree with you guys about Nick Johnson. 0 percent chance he plays a full season. However, he’s pretty damn good when he is on the field, and the dimensions in his new home park could really help. I’d rather take a stab at a hit or miss guy like him than a boring Adam LaRoche is my point. But yes, I’m fully aware of his frailty.
Tyler Durden – Regarding Sexson – it’s possible. I mean, maybe he was more hurt all of last season than was let on, giving at least a reason for the sudden drop off the cliff. Those long, looping swings don’t tend to age well, and he’ll be a BA killer. However, if the price is right, there might not be a cheaper source of 30 homers.
Keith – Only Pujols’ elbow issue put him below Howard. And I wouldn’t blame anyone for going vice-versa. But Howard is the favorite to lead MLB in homers.
Dreamweapon – I too like Swisher a good amount this season and was very close to putting him ahead of Konerko. The switch in ballparks should be a big help. Too bad that high OBP doesn’t translate to BA. But he’s someone who may creep up my board as the season approaches.
D. Lee is 32, not too ancient. And the guy hit 16 homers over the final 250 at-bats last season – hardly Tood Helton territory. I just think the wrist was the main culprit for the first half power outage, and hopefully that’s behind him.
However, I couldn’t agree more about the Adrian Gonzalez proclamation.
Brett – If Scott Hatteberg wasn’t around and/or Dusty Baker wasn’t the manager, I’d move Votto higher. But the talent is there for him to go .275-25-90 right out of the gate. The at-bats may not be.
I’d like Loney more if he wasn’t slated to hit around 6th in the lineup, but I love his bat. Think .315-23-85. However, he’s not always been able to stay healthy in the minors.
I guess my counter argument to Shields is that he got pounded by the Yankees last season and will have to face them at least twice as much this year. Still, his K:BB ratio was ridiculous. Again, don’t get me wrong, he’s legit, but I just expect his overall numbers this year to look a lot more like his 2nd half stats than his first half from last season.
F the West Coast. In B-More ya aim and shoot a yiggin ya heard.
How can someone named Snoop hate the West Coast?
Anyway, I kind of side with Roto on this one. For me It’s easier to take out the stats from Gallardo’s pounding in 1 start last season, than the couple that Shields took at the hands of the Yankees. I think he’s very good, but I would probably play matchups with him unless he got really hot…and any pitcher that I’m not willing to start every game is going to slide down my draft board.
That “Snoop” was not the rapper, but rather the character from “The Wire.”
Anyway, Shields’ K:BB ratio is pretty amazing, but as Keith points out, his situation is much tougher than lesser pitchers in the NL, but that makes a big difference in baseball.
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