I agree that Florida would be crazy to deal him, but that’s what they do, so I expect it to happen (plus, he will bring in quite a haul). Chi Sox make sense with the Guillen connection and the need for a star player to be added, but my guess is either the Dodgers or Angels get him, especially since it looks like ARod will be back in pinstripes. Both teams can afford him and have terrific farm systems. If forced to guess, I predict the Angels, and if so, there’s a pretty good chance they win the World Series within 2-3 years.

Not football related in any way, but can I get some odds on the chances of my runaway favorite beisbol player, Miguel “Young, Fat, Latin Ted Williams” Cabrera joining my 2nd favorite team, the Dodgers?

Alternatively, in what may actually be a better development for me, what about the White Sox? I swear I would go to at least 25 Sox games next year if they pulled it off, as opposed to my usual 2-3. Actually, a Miggy-to-Sox deal might actually force me to accept the Sox as my de facto AL club of choice.

I cannot believe the Marlins would be so dumb (or cheap) as get rid of a guy who could easily be a Triple Crown threat for the next decade, but I hate FLA anyway and that park is a joke, I think his production could only improve anywhere else other than SF.

Also, I know he has been working out pretty hard this offseason, and I’m really not THAT worried about his conditioning (esp. if Ozzie gets his talons on the kid….bye bye arepas), but assuming a trade, where do you see him playing? I have Zimmerman as a backup 3B and Alex Gordon in my “farm system” reserves, so I’m not worried about the hot corner, while my LF (we us LF/CF/RF as opposed to generics) position was a complete disaster last year, thanks to that douchebag Ibanez and Carl Crawford’s owner’s outrageous demands. In my format, I would actually LOVE to see him move to Left, though Right would be a complete disaster for me as it would likely force me to move Delmon Young prematurely and on the cheap.

Heroes was tolerable last night…and dare I say, maybe even good.

Thanks for reminding me how much Benson sucks! Also thanks for jinxing Peterson!

First off, I’m glad i’m not the only one who seems to think Heroes sucks.
Any news on Bush? If he’s not okay, my team is not okay.

I also loved the 99 yards out of Chris Henry this weekend, that was on only 4 catches, I’m definitely not worried about my Chris Henry v. Chad Johnson TD bet.

Speaking of prop bets, my Colston (under 6.5 TDs 2nd Half) bet looks all but locked up now too, as he had two straight weeks with out a TD. If anyone wants to start making money on a regular basis on Football prop bets, they should come to our weekly poker game on wednesday nights (if you live in San Diego). people get drunk, and the less knowledgable would rather man up, than admit they have no idea what they are talking about. I mentioned the chargers +3 line for this weekend, and even here in san diego, everyone thought that line should have been higher, so I got some great action there. … Last week someone else mentioned they expected Selvin Young to score 8 times total this year… I told him i’d give him the over at 7.5 and he backed down. I’ve realized that most prop bets arise from gross exagerations, and refusal to back down.

One last thing though Dalton… I’m not sure if you estimated those successrates on the Extra Pt vs. 2 point conversion, or if you pulled them from a stat somewhere…But obviously every team has a different success rate But the expected value of those two is indeed pretty close..

Expected Value of Xtra Pt.=99*1=.99
Expected Value of 2pt Conversion=.45*2=.90
Difference in expected gain is only 9 hundreths of a point.

I actually use this example when tutoring my students in game theory.
But I usually say, if the xtra point is 96% likely (which i believe is the correct stat), what successrate at 2 point conversions would you need, to make attempting a 2pt Conversion every time to be feasible…The correct answer would be 48%. In the nineties, the average across the leage was indeed much less than 48, but over the past two seasons is beyond 50%, and has been climbing for the last few years. Obviously i understand the value of “nearly guaranteed points” but as a statistician, i prefer the idea of maximizing total points scored over the game. At certain points in the game, There would be no reason to go for two, because the added bonus of the two point conversion may provide you no additional gain. The most obvious example would be a tie game in the fourth. So in those cases, the statistics don’t apply, but in the first half, going for two seems like the better choice…. Also when down two touchdowns late in a game (10mins or less left in 4th) YOU SHOULD ALWAYS go for two on the FIRST score. No matter what, you’ll need two touchdowns. If the attempt is no good, you can still tie on a second score with another 2pt attempt. If it the 1st attempt is good, a extra point on the second score wins the game.
Conversely, if choose to kick the first time, you are committing to overtime at best. Unless some crazy coach watned to go for two on the final score, to be faced with a win/lose scenario riding on a 2pt conversion.

Anyway, sorry to be so wordy, but i’ve been hearing a lot of talk about how 2pt conversions are poor choices, but statistically speaking, for most teams, they should attempt the 2pointer WAY more often than not. especially in the first half, the first half both teams should be trying to maximize their scoring. (you can actually develop a mixed strategy here to detemine the portion of times you should do each, and in what situation situation) I’ve seen similar “academic” reports about this topic, and albeit they have similar views to mine as a result, i feel the math and statistics are incorrect. each team should be doing this analysis of their own squads to identify the proper situations to kick or go for 2