Tuesday Morning Quarterback

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

The Panthers offense produced zero touchdowns while playing at home against the Falcons Sunday. They are officially one of the best opponents to start your fantasy defense against…Mike Williams, Keary Colbert, Dwayne Jarrett, Steve Smith: It’s safe to say USC’s system is better than the wide receivers playing in it…Julius Peppers is having one of the most disappointing seasons in the NFL this year.

Effusive in my praise of Adrian Peterson last week, the bloggers curse has struck again. At least I prefaced it noting his previous injury history, but what a blow to fantasy owners. To be honest, I’ve never even heard of the “lateral collateral” ligament and was unaware one existed…Despite the explosive rookie’s presence, Chester Taylor has actually been pretty good this year and makes for a very serviceable play on a run-first team for the time being…Hard to believe the first 100-yard rusher allowed this season by Minnesota was to Ryan Grant.

My main man Kolby Smith was virtually non-existent Sunday, but Priest Holmes is about as boring as an episode of “Heroes.” Don’t be surprised if the 34-year-old gets hurt soon…Arrowhead is officially no longer a difficult place to play an NFL football game…Like Jerry Seinfeld promoting “Bee Movie,” Travis Henry just needs to go away – I’d much rather own Selvin Young at this point.

Instead of wasting everyone’s time talking about the Dolphins/Bills snoozefest, I’d like to take a moment of time to congratulate the MLB voters for actually getting it right this year. Dustin Pedroia over Delmon Young was an easy call, but that doesn’t make it any less surprising that the voters nailed it. Young “led” the American League in outs made, had a 127:26 K:BB ratio, and despite having a strong arm, is still a below average right fielder. Pedroia had him by .100 points of OPS, had a 42:47 K:BB ratio and played the more important defensive position very well…As for Ryan Braun over Troy Tulowitzki, both were very worthy choices. Still, Braun simply had to win this award, despite being the game’s worst defender. Tulo posted a .256/.327/.393 line when not hitting in Coors Field, while Braun led the league with a .634 slugging percentage, which was the highest by a rookie in major league history. The guy hit 34 home runs in 451 at-bats. Defense is important, no doubt, but you’d have to be crazy to think Tulowitzki contributed more wins to his team than Braun did to the Brewers.

So I guess that bye week did some good for this Rams offense. Steven Jackson can now be treated like a top-10, if not top-5 fantasy player, and it looks like Antonio Pittman is the backup to own, not Brian Leonard…Drew Bennett makes for a sneaky pickup in fantasy leagues right now. Isaac Bruce is dealing with a hamstring injury, and the entire St. Louis passing attack looks back on track. With a really good schedule coming up, Bennett – an excellent red zone target – should be a decent flex play…Sunday marked the Rams’ first touchdown scored on the road this season.

Despite giving up 28 points Sunday, make no mistake, this Steelers defense is legit…Willie Parker is on pace to total 1,748 yards this season. And score 3.5 touchdowns…Even in a game that sees him get just 3.5 YPA, Derek Anderson throws three scores…Like the film “American Gangster,” Ben Roethlisberger is very, very good.

I’m beginning to think even I could play quarterback for Jacksonville and have a decent chance at winning the right matchup…I could not have been more wrong regarding Vince Young this season. He’s really not even worth owning in deep leagues at this point…Maurice Jones-Drew is one of the five best running backs in the National Football League.

James Thrash’s TD catch was the first by a Washington wide receiver this season…I may be wrong, but it certainly looked like the Redskins let the Eagles score a rushing touchdown with 2:18 left Sunday, and bravo if that was the case. It definitely gave the team their best chance at winning…Memo to Andy Reid – even if it ties the score, you should not be trying a two-point conversion with 18 minutes left in the game. I’m no mathematician, but going for one point at a 99 percent success rate seems a little better than going for two points at a 45 percent success rate.

Chris Henry will almost certainly be out of the league within a year or two, but when on the field, he’s the most talented receiver in Cincinnati…Mark Clayton is a must-add in every fantasy league right now. A candidate to breakout in this his third year before the season began, he’s finally healthy and has an extremely favorable matchup against Cleveland this week…Although he may have this guy throwing to him.

Aveion Cason led the Lions in rushing Sunday with one carry for one yard…Tim Rattay is the new Mike Alstott – goal line vulture for TDs…I still have faith in Kevin Jones, but T.J. Duckett should probably be owned in all leagues right now…Good thing Dre Bly isn’t very good, because Tatum Bell is an absolute nothing at this point…One thing is clear, any game featuring the Lions will entail a whole lot of turnovers.

The Giants have the superior pass rush and maybe even running game, but the discrepancy between quarterbacks regarding Dallas and New York is significant…If I owned Jeremy Shockey, I’d be shopping him around following his big week – I see his future, and it involves hobbling to the sidelines with a leg injury…This Dallas defense doesn’t get enough credit.

If someone set the Raiders’ over/under for wins over the rest of the season at 0.5, I’d take the under…I’d rather Selvin Young than Cedric Benson for fantasy purposes from here on out…At this point, might as well see what JaMarcus Russell can do.

It doesn’t always work this way, but Reggie Wayne is a good example of why I always prefer receivers who are the only game in town. The guy was targeted 19 times Sunday, more than making up for the extra coverage slid his way with no Marvin Harrison around…Yes, his name is Craphonso Thorpe…It’s past time to start worrying about Philip Rivers’ long-term outlook…The Colts allowed two special team touchdowns, and Peyton Manning threw six interceptions, yet still should have won. There’s zero cause for concern in Indy.

Matt Hasselbeck looks like a surgeon at times and should be treated like a top-5 fantasy QB with Seattle’s pass-happy ways and improved health from his receivers. I value D.J. Hackett as a top-20 fantasy WR right now…Maurice Morris didn’t really impress Monday night, but he’s still an upgrade over Shaun Alexander…The numbers don’t jump out at you, but that was probably the best Frank Gore looked all season – that week off may have done his body some good…The Patriots traded the 28th overall pick last year for Randy Moss and a likely top-3 pick in the 2008 NFL Draft. That ranks as a top-5 trade in the history of sports.


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6 responses to “Tuesday Morning Quarterback”

  1. chad Avatar
    chad

    3d-

    First off, I’m glad i’m not the only one who seems to think Heroes sucks.
    Any news on Bush? If he’s not okay, my team is not okay.

    I also loved the 99 yards out of Chris Henry this weekend, that was on only 4 catches, I’m definitely not worried about my Chris Henry v. Chad Johnson TD bet.

    Speaking of prop bets, my Colston (under 6.5 TDs 2nd Half) bet looks all but locked up now too, as he had two straight weeks with out a TD. If anyone wants to start making money on a regular basis on Football prop bets, they should come to our weekly poker game on wednesday nights (if you live in San Diego). people get drunk, and the less knowledgable would rather man up, than admit they have no idea what they are talking about. I mentioned the chargers +3 line for this weekend, and even here in san diego, everyone thought that line should have been higher, so I got some great action there. … Last week someone else mentioned they expected Selvin Young to score 8 times total this year… I told him i’d give him the over at 7.5 and he backed down. I’ve realized that most prop bets arise from gross exagerations, and refusal to back down.

    One last thing though Dalton… I’m not sure if you estimated those successrates on the Extra Pt vs. 2 point conversion, or if you pulled them from a stat somewhere…But obviously every team has a different success rate But the expected value of those two is indeed pretty close..

    Expected Value of Xtra Pt.=99*1=.99
    Expected Value of 2pt Conversion=.45*2=.90
    Difference in expected gain is only 9 hundreths of a point.

    I actually use this example when tutoring my students in game theory.
    But I usually say, if the xtra point is 96% likely (which i believe is the correct stat), what successrate at 2 point conversions would you need, to make attempting a 2pt Conversion every time to be feasible…The correct answer would be 48%. In the nineties, the average across the leage was indeed much less than 48, but over the past two seasons is beyond 50%, and has been climbing for the last few years. Obviously i understand the value of “nearly guaranteed points” but as a statistician, i prefer the idea of maximizing total points scored over the game. At certain points in the game, There would be no reason to go for two, because the added bonus of the two point conversion may provide you no additional gain. The most obvious example would be a tie game in the fourth. So in those cases, the statistics don’t apply, but in the first half, going for two seems like the better choice…. Also when down two touchdowns late in a game (10mins or less left in 4th) YOU SHOULD ALWAYS go for two on the FIRST score. No matter what, you’ll need two touchdowns. If the attempt is no good, you can still tie on a second score with another 2pt attempt. If it the 1st attempt is good, a extra point on the second score wins the game.
    Conversely, if choose to kick the first time, you are committing to overtime at best. Unless some crazy coach watned to go for two on the final score, to be faced with a win/lose scenario riding on a 2pt conversion.

    Anyway, sorry to be so wordy, but i’ve been hearing a lot of talk about how 2pt conversions are poor choices, but statistically speaking, for most teams, they should attempt the 2pointer WAY more often than not. especially in the first half, the first half both teams should be trying to maximize their scoring. (you can actually develop a mixed strategy here to detemine the portion of times you should do each, and in what situation situation) I’ve seen similar “academic” reports about this topic, and albeit they have similar views to mine as a result, i feel the math and statistics are incorrect. each team should be doing this analysis of their own squads to identify the proper situations to kick or go for 2

  2. Carli Avatar
    Carli

    I could watch that Boller clip over and over.

    Heroes was tolerable last night…and dare I say, maybe even good.

    Thanks for reminding me how much Benson sucks! Also thanks for jinxing Peterson!

  3. Robby Avatar
    Robby

    Chad – I’m going to make a post about this 2-point conversion stuff – good stuff.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Really interesting stuff Chad.

  5. Dreamweapon Avatar
    Dreamweapon

    Triple-D–

    Not football related in any way, but can I get some odds on the chances of my runaway favorite beisbol player, Miguel “Young, Fat, Latin Ted Williams” Cabrera joining my 2nd favorite team, the Dodgers?

    Alternatively, in what may actually be a better development for me, what about the White Sox? I swear I would go to at least 25 Sox games next year if they pulled it off, as opposed to my usual 2-3. Actually, a Miggy-to-Sox deal might actually force me to accept the Sox as my de facto AL club of choice.

    I cannot believe the Marlins would be so dumb (or cheap) as get rid of a guy who could easily be a Triple Crown threat for the next decade, but I hate FLA anyway and that park is a joke, I think his production could only improve anywhere else other than SF.

    Also, I know he has been working out pretty hard this offseason, and I’m really not THAT worried about his conditioning (esp. if Ozzie gets his talons on the kid….bye bye arepas), but assuming a trade, where do you see him playing? I have Zimmerman as a backup 3B and Alex Gordon in my “farm system” reserves, so I’m not worried about the hot corner, while my LF (we us LF/CF/RF as opposed to generics) position was a complete disaster last year, thanks to that douchebag Ibanez and Carl Crawford’s owner’s outrageous demands. In my format, I would actually LOVE to see him move to Left, though Right would be a complete disaster for me as it would likely force me to move Delmon Young prematurely and on the cheap.

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Cabrera to the Dodgers seems like a perfect fit. LA has the funds and young talent to make it happen. However, he needs to move to the outfield or put down the bag of chips eventually. I hear you in that I’m not too worried about his conditioning long-term, but it would be nice to see him put forth a little effort (this coming from a guy who wouldn’t be caught dead in a gym), and like you mentioned, it sounds like he is training hard this offseason.

    I agree that Florida would be crazy to deal him, but that’s what they do, so I expect it to happen (plus, he will bring in quite a haul). Chi Sox make sense with the Guillen connection and the need for a star player to be added, but my guess is either the Dodgers or Angels get him, especially since it looks like ARod will be back in pinstripes. Both teams can afford him and have terrific farm systems. If forced to guess, I predict the Angels, and if so, there’s a pretty good chance they win the World Series within 2-3 years.

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