By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
Since the terms sleeper and bust have pretty much become irrelevant at this point, I think a better description is undervalued and overvalued. And if early draft returns are any indication, the following players fall directly into those categories:
UNDERVALUED
Vince Young – Typically going in rounds 7-10, Young might pay bigger returns than any fantasy player this season. Over the second half of last year, Young got 6.9 YPA and ran for 415 yards and five touchdowns. In fantasy football, his legs make him gold. I’ve often heard him referred to as a boom or bust type player from week-to-week, but I couldn’t disagree more. The 40-60 rushing yards essentially make him slump proof and allows for a rather high floor. His ceiling, similarly, is sky-high. Young is an injury risk while running so much, and his teammates aren’t great, but the best fantasy QBs often play for poor real life teams. While Tom Brady will be methodically protecting second half leads week after week, Young will be compensating for a porous defense by constantly throwing after halftime, which will also lead to more rushing yards. Quarterbacks make wide receivers and not vice versa, so don’t overrate the fact that you can’t name Tennessee’s wideouts. He’s also the team’s best goal line option. Young is ranked No. 3 on my QB board.
Reggie Brown – With an average draft position (ADP) of 55, Brown is simply going too late in fantasy leagues. Sure, the Eagles typically spread the wealth, but the team calls more pass plays than any other unit in football. With Donte Stallworth out of town, Brown becomes the clear-cut No. 1 wide receiver. Donovan McNabb is an injury risk, but all indications point to him being fully recovered from last year’s knee injury. Brown is entering the magical third-year in the league and averaged a sparkling 17.7 YPC last season. The fact Hines Ward is typically being drafted ahead of him is Gary Busey insane.
Calvin Johnson – Believe the hype. Johnson has the right head on his shoulders and physical tools to break the typical rule of rookie WRs struggling out of the gate. He has to share looks with Roy Williams, and Jon Kitna isn’t the ideal QB throwing him passes, but Mike Martz is an offensive genius, and the Lions called the fewest run plays of any team in football last season. Johnson is explosive and has tremendous hands; it’s not out of the realm of possibility that he turns in a similar rookie campaign as Randy Moss’ 1998 season. Chris Chambers, who had the worst season a wide receiver has ever had in the history of the NFL in 2006, currently sports a higher ADP.
OVERVALUED
Shaun Alexander – Alexander has virtually no competition for touches in Seattle’s backfield and plays in a fairly weak division against the run. However, there’s not a whole lot else to like here. He’ll be 30 years old when the season starts, and the Seahawks’ offense is officially in decline. Their lack of big named receivers isn’t a huge concern, but the offensive line play is. Walter Jones fell off dramatically last year, and Seattle fans will have to hope it was just due to injury, and he comes back healthy and back in his prime this year. The loss of Steve Hutchinson certainly didn’t help matters, and Alexander offers zero as a pass catcher (50 catches combined over the past three years). The biggest worry of all, however, is Alexander himself. If you take away one Monday night game against Green Bay, he averaged a pathetic 3.28 YPC – the worst in the league for backs reaching the minimum amount. He’s also been worked extremely hard over his career, including last season’s 403-carry pace when he was on the field. I’m fine with Alexander as a late first round pick, but his current 4.95 ADP is off. At minimum, Joseph Addai and Willie Parker have to go ahead of him.
Jamal Lewis – This one is too easy, but the numbers indicate Lewis is once again being overvalued, with an ADP of 46. If you are spending a fourth round pick on a guy who hasn’t averaged more than 3.6 YPC since 2004 and doesn’t catch the football, something is amiss. He’ll now take his indecisive running and happy feet to an inferior team in Cleveland, where he won’t have the luxury of playing with one of the game’s finest defenses like he did in Baltimore. I wouldn’t draft Lewis in the first 10 rounds in fantasy leagues.
Deion Branch – In theory, Branch looks good. Seattle is typically a high-powered offense with a strong QB at the helm and Darrell Jackson jettisoned. However, the game isn’t played on paper, and Branch is getting drafted way too early as a fifth-sixth round pick. He’s not fast nor big and is a poor red zone option; maybe Seattle will stop trying to make him a deep threat and utilize his biggest strength, which are underneath routes, but D.J. Hackett is Seattle’s best wide receiver. Branch will get plenty of looks, but the Super Bowl MVP continues to cast an overrated cloud over this thoroughly average receiver.
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