By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
These rankings are for a 4-point per TD pass, 1-point per 20-yards passing/10 yards rushing scoring system.
TIER ONE
1. Carson Palmer – A poor real life defense is a fantasy quarterback’s best friend. Do not underestimate how much Palmer’s balky knee affected him last year, but that problem should be in the rearview mirror this season.
2. Peyton Manning – Manning is fantastic, but the Colts’ Cover 2 defense prevents the team from getting into many shootouts. In fact, Indy had the fewest offensive plays ran of any team in the NFL last season, meaning Manning has to be extremely efficient to be the best fantasy QB. If he runs for four TDs again (the second most by a QB last year), he’ll finish atop this list, but those chances are slim. The QB position is simply too deep to draft one in the first three rounds.
3. Vince Young – If you double Young’s second half stats from last season, you’d get 830 yards rushing and 10 rushing TDs. He also improved to a respectable 6.9 YPA. It stands to reason he’ll continue to improve in his second year as a starter. As the Titans’ best goal-line option, he’s fantasy gold.
TIER TWO
4. Drew Brees – Brees is due to regress somewhat this season, but he has an offensive genius as head coach and is one of the most accurate passers in the game today. Going 5-for-5 with three TDs on passes of 40 yards or more like he did in 2006 isn’t sustainable, but the fact he was sacked just once every 31 pass attempts (second only to Peyton Manning) should go a long way toward keeping the sometimes brittle QB healthy. New Orleans’ offense is extremely aggressive, so expect Brees’ stay among the elite fantasy QBs to be for real.
5. Marc Bulger – Bulger was able to play in all 16 games last year for the first time in his career. This wasn’t by accident, as Scott Linehan actually protects his QB unlike predecessor Mike Martz. The Rams love to pass near the goal line, throwing 57 percent of the time inside the 10-yard line last year, the most in the NFL. With the addition of red-zone target Drew Bennett to the receiving corps, expect similar playcalling in 2007. Bulger has gotten 7.7 YPA during his career, the same as Peyton Manning. Playing in a weak division with a bad defense behind him, Bulger is in a terrific position to put up gaudy stats this year.
6. Tom Brady – Good luck depending on Randy Moss and Dante Stallworth staying healthy. Sure, Corey Dillon is no longer around to pilfer goal-line scores, but I wouldn’t let the ostensible WR upgrade automatically make Brady the third best fantasy QB. Don’t get me wrong, he’s very good, but so is New England’s defense. Expect the Pats to be protecting many leads after halftime this season, leading to more run plays than fantasy owners will like.
7. Donovan McNabb – He’s only played 16 games in a season once since 2001 and is coming off major knee surgery. No doubt, he’s an injury risk. Still, Carson Palmer was able to return with success from a similar injury last season, and McNabb has had even more time to recover – this was a simple ACL tear, not even in the same ballpark as Daunte Culpepper’s devastating injury. And it’s not like running was a major aspect of his game at this stage of his career. Let’s not forget, when McNabb went down last season, he was probably the NFL and fantasy MVP – not just for QBs but overall. There simply isn’t a system in all of football better for producing big passing stats than Andy Reid’s in Philadelphia. The team called pass plays 62 percent of the time during the first half of games last year, by far the most in the NFL. He’s one of the biggest risk/reward picks in fantasy football this season, and it’s a gamble I’d be more than happy to take.
8. Tony Romo – There isn’t a better indicator for predicting touchdown totals than yards-per-attempt (YPA). And Romo’s 8.61 YPA mark was the best in the NFL last season for those who reached the minimum amount. He’s not going to keep up that type of pace – it would be the best in NFL history – but it does reveal the makings of a bright future. The fact he has Terrell Owens, who is the NFL’s best red-zone receiver and still explosive, to target, is a big help.
9. Ben Roethlisberger – Speaking of YPA, Roethlisberger currently sports the highest career mark (8.3) of any QB in the history of the NFL. Joe Montana got 7.5. John Elway got 7.1. Dan Marino got 7.3. Of course, Roethlisberger’s ridiculous 8.3 mark will go down once he starts throwing the ball more, as he was partly able to establish such a high number because the Steelers picked their spots so selectively when throwing, but he could regress quite a bit and still be elite. Mike Tomlin may be the new head coach, but it’s new offensive coordinator Bruce Arians – the former WR coach – who will be running the offense. Expect it to be opened up dramatically compared to the old Bill Cowher era, leading to improved passing stats. The 23 interceptions Roethlisberger had last year were ugly, but much can be blamed on his scrambled brain after never fully recovering from a violent concussion caused by a preseason motorcycle accident. He is an injury risk, but with explosive Willie Parker out of the backfield and dynamic second-year WR Santonio Holmes ready to breakout, the Steelers’ offense could be a force in 2007.
10. Matt Hasselbeck – I’m not too concerned with Darrell Jackson and Jerramy Stevens departing, and the fact Shaun Alexander is in decline can actually be seen as a plus for Hasselbeck’s fantasy value. However, the offensive line is also falling apart, and Walter Jones’ health remains a question mark. The NFC West should present plenty of opportunities for shootouts, but Hasselbeck no longer has the offensive support around him to be an elite fantasy QB.
TIER THREE
11. Jon Kitna – While 5,000 passing yards and 50 TD passes are two predictions unlikely to come to fruition, Kitna does play in a situation that presents quite a bit of upside. Part of the problem with Kitna was the question of whether the Lions would look to the future if the team stumbled to a poor start, but with Drew Stanton placed on I.R., the alternatives don’t look great. Still, Mike Martz has turned to unknowns before, which is why I’m remaining skeptical of Kitna’s ability to remain the No. 1 signal caller all season long. Yes, Martz’s system is great for big QB numbers, and the Roy Williams/Calvin Johnson combo is terrific. However, Kitna had more turnovers than any other player in the league last season and often struggled in the red zone. Plus, he’s Jon Kitna.
12. Jay Cutler – He’s going to be special. Cutler has one of the most innovative offensive-minds in Mike Shanahan on his side, is very mobile and possesses one of the strongest arms in the NFL already. He gained valuable experience at the end of last season, and the Broncos should have a better running game and a healthier Javon Walker in 2007. Even when raw, Cutler threw multiple TD passes in three of the final four games last year, giving fantasy owners a taste of what’s to come. He got an impressive 7.3 YPA, while fellow rookie Matt Leinart got a 6.8 mark. Most pundits will call Cutler a solid sleeper as your QB2, but I’m fine entering the season with him as my starter.
13. Jake Delhomme – New offensive coordinator Jeff Davidson should help change the previously predictable Panthers’ offense into a more dynamic one, and the addition of Dwayne Jarrett should help as well, at least eventually. Of course, it also helps having the game’s most explosive and best WR in Steve Smith at your disposal. Delhomme is a solid, if not spectacular, option as your fantasy quarterback.
14. Matt Leinart – If Larry Fitzgerald and Anquan Boldin are both top-15 fantasy wide receivers, then Leinart is going to have to put up pretty decent numbers, right? The offensive line remains a problem, and the new coaching regime is going to at least attempt to run the ball more. Again, the NFC West is a good division to play in if offensive stats are what you’re into, but Leinart won’t truly blossom until another year or so.
15. Eli Manning – He’s not an NFL bust, but at this point, it’s safe to say Manning isn’t going to reach the potential many thought he had. After all, his surname is Manning. Through 39 career starts, there’s not much to suggest Manning is anything more than an average NFL quarterback. He’s terribly inaccurate, far too often throwing off his back foot. Over the last two seasons, he’s faded badly – getting just 5.9 YPA with a 19/23 TD/INT ratio over the final eight weeks. So if he jumps off to a fast start, looking to trade him midseason may be the astute route.
16. Philip Rivers – Terrific real life quarterback. So-so fantasy QB. Maybe Rivers’ stats will improve with the new coaching regime, but none of Norv Turner’s previous QBs (think Troy Aikman) were ever big fantasy options. The system holds him back, as does LaDainian Tomlinson’s penchant for the end zone, but Rivers is an elite NFL QB.
17. J.P. Losman – J.P., which is rumored to stand for Judas Priest, really came on over the second half of the 2006 season. He got 7.5 YPA with 12 TDs over the final eight weeks and is one of the more mobile QBs in the league. With Lee Evans and rookie Marshawn Lynch at his disposal, Losman has a chance to emerge as a viable fantasy option, especially with such a poor defense playing behind him.
TIER FOUR
18. Rex Grossman – For a defensive-minded team, the Bears throw deep a ton.
19. Matt Schaub – He very well may turn out to be good and is almost certainly better than David Carr, but everyone’s favorite backup QB has gotten just 6.4 YPA while completing a pedestrian 52.2 percent of his passes throughout his career.
20. Jeff Garcia – I see Garcia as a sleeper this season, as he’s rarely getting drafted in most fantasy leagues. Sure, Andy Reid had a lot to do with Garcia’s resurgence last season, but Jon Gruden’s system isn’t bad either.
21. Brett Favre – He’s not good in real life, but the Packers throw the ball enough to keep him on the fantasy radar.
22. Chad Pennington – Poor guy has the worst arm strength of anyone in the NFL today.
23. Alex Smith – He’s looked good so far in the preseason and is starting to see plays develop before they happen. He hasn’t shown much so far during his NFL career, but some blind faith points to him emerging in his third year as a pro.
24. Jason Campbell – He’s better than Mark Brunell.
TIER FIVE
25. Byron Leftwich
26. Tarvaris Jackson
27. Steve McNair
28. Damon Huard
29. Joey Harrington
30. Kurt Warner
31. J.T. O’Sullivan
32. A.J. Feeley
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