RotoScoop.com

Gopheritis

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

The following are HR rates that pitchers will almost certainly be unable to sustain over the course of the rest of the season. Predicting the inevitable corrections before they actually happen could help influence the standings in your league.

Home runs allowed per nine innings pitched – On average, the typical pitcher allowed 1.12 HR/9 IP last season. Ideally, you want to look for hurlers with a number that is less than 1.00.

Jake Peavy .10 HR/9 IP – He’s good, but more flyballs are going to leave the park, no matter how spacious Petco is. There isn’t a fantasy pitcher I’d rather own other than Johan Santana, and Peavy is the odds-on favorite to win the Cy Young in the NL, but he’s been getting lucky in limiting the long ball thus far. His career rate is 1.02 HR/9 IP, and while he is inducing more groundballs (1.26 G/F this season after a 0.92 mark last year), giving up one home run in 94 innings is a rate that simply will not last.

Also see: Brad Penny (.20 HR/9 IP), Tim Hudson (.29), Kelvim Escobar (.33), Chris Young (.33), Chad Gaudin (.35), Josh Beckett (.38)

Note: There’s probably a little cause and effect regarding the fact both Peavy and Young appear on this list, as pitching in San Diego gives them a better chance of finishing 2007 with a low HR/9 IP. Also, this stat is the easiest figure to point to Beckett’s huge turnaround season this year. He gave up 1.58 HR/9 IP last year, which was toward the very bottom of the league. He ranks seventh best in the category this year.

Carlos Zambrano 1.43 HR/9 IP – So that’s why he has a 4.89 ERA. For his career, Zambrano has allowed a very solid .69 HR/9 IP. This year, it’s more than doubled. The 14 gopher balls in 88.1 innings are as many as he gave up in 209.2 innings in 2004. His strikeout rate is way down (6.93/ 9 IP), but he’s actually posting a better groundball to flyball rate this season (1.41 G/F) than last (1.21). He’ll always battle control issues from time to time, but if Zambrano is truly healthy – and judging by his high pitch counts, one can only hope so – he’s due for a big bounce back over the final 3.5 months of the season. Go get him.

Also see: Ervin Santana (1.87), Johan Santana (1.36), A.J. Burnett (1.30)

Note: Guys like Cole Hamels (1.46), Chuck James (1.43) and Boof Bonser (1.36) also have very high HR rates, but those numbers are in line with their career totals. They are flyball pitchers, and thus, far more homer-prone. Ervin Santana, Johan Santana and A.J. Burnett, meanwhile, have very good groundball rates and are due for a correction in HRs allowed from here on out.

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11 responses to “Gopheritis”

  1. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Where would one get these stats? I would like to take a look, or calculate it myself. Any help would be great.

  2. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Dalton, did you happen to catch the recent article at the hardball times about a different look at BABIP: http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/a-different-look-at-babip/

    Kind of interesting stuff. It would be interesting to see a wider-spread approach, but I like the idea of the pitcher perhaps having some control over basehits.

  3. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    The Donald – I get them from RotoWire.com – They have a real good expanded stats section. The only problem, of course, is that the site costs money. I’m pretty sure any site (Baseball Prospectus has good stuff as well) that would have these type of stats would cost something, but I’ll definitely pass it along if I find a free one.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – No, I hadn’t seen that article. I haven’t read it yet, but I bookmarked it and will check it out soon. Thanks. I agree, I like the idea of a pitcher having some control as well.

  5. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Really good read – I suggest everyone check it out. This is another good one that it referenced:

    http://www.hardballtimes.com/main/article/uncovering-dips/

  6. djpegleg Avatar
    djpegleg

    Dalton, I gotta question for you:

    What’s up with Lincecum? I’ve got to watch four or five times this year and it seems like he’s either a) not trusting his stuff or b) over-pitching. Now I know he’s a young man and he has a bright future, but what can the Giants do with him at this point? They can’t send him down–since he’s already done torn up the minors–but it doesn’t seem like he’s getting good coaching with the big club. I’m trying to chalk up his current woes to learning-the-ropes, but (as a SF fan) I was wondering if you’d seen something different.

  7. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    djpegleg – The peripherals are still there, and I actually think Lincecum makes a good buy low guy right now in fantasy leagues, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say I was at least a little concerned. Control has been the biggest problem, not only with walks, but he’s also giving up HRs at a ridiculously high rate.

    Like you stated, I think he’s doing a little of both A and B. During his last game against Toronto, after allowing a couple of bloop hits (bad luck), he seemed to get obviously flustered and really was overpitching, trying to throw it 110 mph. The fact he looks about 14 years old raises questions about his make-up and maturity that much more.

    I have my problems with the Giants’ coaching, but Dave Righetti is regarded as one of the best pitching coaches in the game, so hopefully he straightens this out soon. I agree, no way can SF send him down right now. Ultimately, I too am chalking it up as learning the ropes. In 8 starts, he’s had 4 good ones and 4 bad ones. The four bad ones have come against Philly (twice) and two AL teams that are extremely patient.

    Don’t get me wrong, I hyped him up quite a bit and expected a lot more so far, but I’m not jumping off the bandwagon yet, and would happily trade for him in any fantasy league.

  8. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Bottom line, Lincecum obviously has the stuff to succeed in the majors, but he’s going through major growing pains right now. Rarely does the rookie pitcher not – I just thought his learning curve would be less severe b/c of his age. And I wasn’t making excuses naming the four good offenses he’s had bad outings against, he clearly pitched poorly during those games. Russ Ortiz is hurt, and the Giants don’t have many alternatives, but hopefully Lincecum turns it around soon.

    All that said, I’m still excited to roster Yovani Gallardo and suggest everyone else does the same.

  9. Donald Trump Avatar
    Donald Trump

    Cole Hamels had a lincecum-like sub 1 era in AAA before he came to the bigs last year, and in his first 8 starts went 1-4 with a 5.40 era. He got 101K and 3.39 era in the second half. With a little luck, Lincecum can have a similar year.

  10. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Very good point Donald.

    Oh, and how about that Spurs sweep? I didn’t do that great with my NBA postseason predictions, so I have to point it out when I actually nail one.

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