Don’t Call it a Comeback

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

Robby’s recent article regarding time, work and real life issues getting in the way of his fantasy team got me thinking, and while I don’t expect every fantasy owner to be as intense as me, people often give up far too quickly in rotisserie leagues.

Players’ slumps get magnified early on – if someone has a six-week drought during July and August, no one pays attention, but since it occurred to open the season, everyone notices. Baseball is by far the biggest sample size sport, so judging a player, or your team, through six weeks would be a huge mistake. While it appears we know who does and who doesn’t have a good squad in our leagues, chances are the standings will look quite a bit different come September.

It’s also nearly impossible to correctly forecast trades at this point – I recently traded for Rocco Baldelli (before he predictably got hurt), only to realize about three days later that HRs and RBI were probably my team’s true weak points. I’m not advising against dealing, of course, but one should realize just how difficult it is to predict the influence in standings, especially when you consider that you’d have to take into account about 6-8 teams fluctuating in the categories you are trading for and away. There are exceptions, of course, but it’s usually best to trade for value and not for specific categories this early in the season.

In my main league, I currently reside in ninth place – down 32 points from first. One could easily get quite overwhelmed by that big of a deficit, and apathy is the surest way of maintaining your low place in the standings. I’ve had my share of injuries, but hey, I thought my team was really good after the draft, so why change that thought now? A closer examination reveals the 32 points isn’t so insurmountable after all:

• 20 home runs separate 2 points from 11 points in the HR category.

• 41 RBI separate 2 points from 10 points in the RBI category.

• 14 stolen bases separate 2 points from 10 points in the SB category.

• 9 wins separate 2 points from 11 points in the Wins category.

• 60 strikeouts separate 4 points from 12 points in the Ks category.

And so on, and so on. The point is, it’s still early. That can’t be emphasized enough. 41 RBI may seem like a lot, but it just means the team in second to last place would have to average 0.27 more RBI per day than the first place team over the rest of the season to finish atop that cat. The season is 28 percent finished. The tougher categories to gain ground in typically are average and ratios in pitching. The counting stats, on the other hand, can be made up at a more rapid pace. Patience and baseball pretty much go hand in hand, so remember, don’t give up, don’t ever give up.