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BABIP

By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer

For those unfamiliar with the term batting average on balls in play (BABIP), here’s a quick tutorial. On balls that are hit into play (home runs do NOT count), about 30 percent typically fall in for a hit. Most pitchers’ BABIP will eventually fall close to .300 (.290 to be precise), whether he is Johan Santana or Russ Ortiz. Bottom line, there is little if any difference among major league pitchers in their ability to prevent hits on balls hit in the field of play. BABIP is mostly a function of a pitcher’s defense and luck, rather than persistent skill.

While this may be hard to believe, statistical evidence backs it up – there is little correlation between what a pitcher does one year in the stat and what he will do the next. Original researcher Voros McCracken surmises that blame is often misplaced when looking at this issue. If you were to lob the ball over the plate in a softball league and the batter popped out, would you give credit/blame to the pitcher or batter? What if he hit a home run? The point is that it all depends on what the batter does with the pitch. Throughout the years, position players who have come into pitch in MLB games (think Brent Mayne/Jose Canseco) actually have lower BABIP than the average pitcher. So now, let’s take a look at pitchers who have been abnormally lucky and unlucky so far this season, with the expectation that their BABIP will eventually regress to the mean:

THE LUCKY

Matt Cain (.227 BABIP) – Many consider Cain unlucky this year because he has just two wins to show for a nifty 3.23 ERA, but the peripherals suggest the opposite is true. He’s walked three or more batters in eight of his 10 outings this season and is on pace to issue 109 free passes for the year. He’s also only striking out 6.9 batters per nine innings, down from 2006’s 8.5. With a severely low .227 BABIP, Cain is going to have to start pitching a whole lot better if he doesn’t want his ERA to start skyrocketing.

Oliver Perez (.235) – I just hyped Perez’s comeback tour, but apparently that needs to be tempered somewhat. He’s doing an excellent job fanning batters, but he’s also been extremely lucky with balls missing gloves.

Barry Zito (.236) – Zito’s 4.70 ERA apparently could be a whole lot worse. The 32/30 K/BB ratio is atrocious, and once more balls find holes, he’s going to pay dearly. Zito is a notorious slow starter, but he’s looking awfully overpaid right now.

Jason Marquis (.214) – Marquis (2.60 ERA, 1.02 WHIP) may be having the most surprising season in the game so far. After last season’s 6.02 ERA, it’s doubtful a recommendation to sell-high will net you a whole lot in return, but knowing just how unsustainable the .214 BABIP is, you might want to try to get a bobblehead or something for him before it’s too late.

THE UNLUCKY

C.C. Sabathia (.337) – He’s a top-5 pitcher in baseball. Sabathia is already flashing impressive numbers (8.9 strikeouts per nine innings, 5.6/1 K/BB ratio), and the 3.54 ERA should decline once the luck evens out. He could improve on keeping the ball in the park, however.

Adam Wainwright (.387) – After a dominant spring, Wainwright has struggled badly over the first two months of the season. However, he has a 12/1 K/BB ratio over the last two starts and has been one of the unluckiest pitchers in the game so far, so there is reason for optimism here.

Zack Greinke (.373) – He’s back. Then he’s not. Then he’s moved to the pen. One thing’s for sure, and it’s that Greinke’s stuff doesn’t match with his 5.12 ERA and 1.66 WHIP. Before Sunday’s implosion, Greinke had thrived in the bullpen, as he’s been reaching up to 96-97 mph on the gun. The .373 BABIP clearly indicates he’s pitched better than the numbers reveal, and when, not if, Octavio Dotel suffers his next injury, Greinke could emerge as a ninth-inning option.

Randy Johnson (.367) – Injury problems persist, but Johnson is a great trade target for those wanting upside/risk over the safe right now. After his first start coming off the disabled list, the Big Unit has posted an incredible 40/3 K/BB ratio over 30.2 innings. Don’t underestimate the return to the NL West. The .367 BABIP is unsustainably high, so things should only get better. I’d gamble on him.

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6 responses to “BABIP”

  1. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    re: Ollie Perez. It’s my understanding (off the top of my head) that fly-ball pitchers have lower BABIPs than non fly-ball pitchers (due to homeruns not counting against BABIP as well as some other more murky issues at stake). Couple Ollie’s predominant fly ball tendencies with the fact that the Mets probably play in the most favorable division for fly-ball pitchers (RFK and Dolphins’ Stadium make Shea look relatively miniscule) and that the Mets are so far putting forth an all-time-great DER and you can argue that Ollie’s BABIP #s are more sustainable than many other guys on this list…

  2. Keith Avatar
    Keith

    Zito actually consistently has a below-average BABIP, and I think that’s supposed to be from flys and popups, but there are very few guys that consistently outperform the league average, and he has for some reason (but is still overpaid!)

  3. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Lister – It’s true, flyballers do typically have lower BABIP than groundball pitchers. I actually wanted to mention that. Chris Young last year is a good example of this. It makes logical sense – a grounder is much more likely to find a hole in the infield than a flyball is to miss an outfielders glove. So that’s a good point, combined with the divisional ballparks, etc.

    But obviously, more flyballs lead to more home runs (typically 1 in 10), so his ERA may still take a slight hit. Nevertheless, I do like Ollie’s prospects this year.

  4. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Keith – I agree, there are some outliers here, and Zito appears to be one of them. Take Tom Glavine, for instance. I haven’t looked up his BABIP, but his peripherals consistently don’t match his ERA. Year after year, he has a below average WHIP, low K rate, and yet an ERA in the 3.50 range. I recently saw him pitch in person at a Giants game and I came away thinking how crazy this BABIP thing can be at times, b/c it was clear the Giants’ hitters were off balance on 90 percent of their swings. Sure, they were making contact, but it was a weak swing, lunging, etc. That can’t be the same as them swinging their hardest and connecting fully, can it?

  5. Lister Avatar
    Lister

    lol at perez giving up, what, 5 hits last night, 3 of which were homeruns and don’t count against his BABIP. i think we mentioned that stuff above…

    also, regarding your earlier discussion of cholly and wifebeater myers, i found this interesting from carroll’s UTK:

    “Charlie Manuel seems a bit defensive when asked about Brett Myers. Myers’ conversion to closer isn’t about workload, it’s about fatigue. The change in approach, warmup, and “stuff” from starter to closer, or even from mere reliever to closer, does things that we simply don’t understand. Clearly, for whatever reason, Myers broke down in that switch. Would it have happened had he stayed in the rotation? Maybe. See, the frustrating thing is that we just don’t know, making Manuel’s “I didn’t overwork him” as invalid as anyone that says he did. We don’t know where that level is, and absent the invention of a non-invasive electromyogram that can be used in between innings, we’ll be caught using inexact proxies and praying that old-school methods like those that Earl Weaver used work for guys like Manuel. Of course, Tom Gordon still hopes to be back before the All-Star break, something that would at least help the Phillies bullpen situation out some.”

  6. RotoScoop Avatar
    RotoScoop

    Ya, Perez’s line last night was great.

    re: Myers/Manuel – I agree that I’m not a doctor and can’t 100 percent conclude the cause and effect, but there is a preponderance of evidence in this case in my eyes.

    – Manuel had him appear 18 times in 36 games after a mid-season switch in roles.

    – He had him throw 21 innings over that span, a 95-inning pace, which would in all likelihood led the league in relief innings.

    – He had never, ever been on the DL or experienced any kind of health problem.

    This is far from beyond a reasonable doubt here, and maybe I’m biased b/c I drafted Myers (and since traded him) as a starter and think that the bullpen move in itself was extremely illogical, but I’m marking down guilty here.

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