By Dalton Del Don – Senior Writer
There isn’t a bigger difference maker in fantasy baseball drafts this year than Ben Sheets. I know, I know, everyone is aware of his potential, but taking him early in drafts is simply too risky due to his health concerns. Very real concerns I might add. Over the last two seasons, Sheets has torn his shoulder muscle, strained another muscle in the same area and then missed 2 1/2 months last year with shoulder tendinitis.
When on the hill, however, only Johan Santana can match his production. Sheets has a 1.03 WHIP since 2004, posting a ridiculous 7.7/1 K/BB ratio in the process. During that same time span, Santana has posted a 5.1/1 K/BB ratio. Despite Sheets’ recent health problems, he certainly looked 100 percent after returning last year, posting a 2.59 ERA and 0.94 WHIP in 41 1/3 September innings. He also sported a ridiculous 45/4 K/BB ratio during that month.
Sheets has an average draft position (ADP) of 78.62, meaning there isn’t a bigger bargain out there. Torii Hunter (70.78), Nick Swisher (76.58) and Chipper Jones (77.02) are all typically being drafted ahead of Sheets. Guys like Dan Uggla (81.88) and Corey Patterson (83.05) are also being selected right around this area. Folks, if you’re taking Patterson ahead of Sheets, you’re crazier than Tracy Morgan.
Sheets’ injury history is providing a unique opportunity to take a gamble during the mid-rounds that offers a reward unlike anyone else being drafted in that area. If he throws 220 innings, he’ll enter next season as a universal top-10 pick. Something tells me Patterson, Swisher, et al don’t offer that upside. Even if Sheets once again succumbs to injury, the 100-150 innings you’ll get out of him will be so dominant, it won’t even be that out of line from a seventh round pick. Remember, that 3.82 ERA last year is completely out of line with his peripherals, so expect an ERA in the 2.80-3.10 range this season. His WHIP and strikeout ability is really second to none.
Essentially a two-pitch pitcher (featuring the best curveball in the game), Sheets has been working extensively this spring on his changeup, which would make life even more unfair on hitters if it develops into an effective third pitch. While it’s probably best not to anchor your staff with him, and acknowledging the fact that the injury concerns are legit, Sheets looks like the x-factor in your draft. Go get him.
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